Iran Feature: How Tehran Evades Sanctions on Its Ships (Armstrong/Grey/Ojha)

Just before noon on a sticky, overcast Saturday morning earlier this month a truck carrying two white containers waited at an electronic checkpoint to leave Singapore's main port. The containers bore the bright red letters IRISL, the initials of Iran's cargo line, which has been blacklisted by the United Nations, United States and European Union. 

Anchored just off Singapore's playground island of Sentosa that same day, the container ship Valili was also stacked high with IRISL boxes. A couple of miles to the east the Parmis, another container ship, also carried IRISL crates. Shipping movements data tracked by Reuters shows the Parmis had pulled into Singapore waters from the northern Chinese port of Tianjin early that morning.

The ships and containers are key parts in an international cat-and-mouse game, as Iran attempts to evade the trade sanctions tightening around it.

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Dialogue Sought"?

2156 GMT: The UN General Assembly has passed a resolution on Syria, pledging support for the Arab League's transition plan:

The initial count showed that the resolution, which is similar to one Russia and China vetoed in the Security Council on February 4th, received 137 votes in favour, 12 against and 17 abstentions, although three delegations said their votes failed to register on the electronic board.

Russia and China were among those that voted against the resolution.

2105 GMT: The Syrian activists are noting that while the UN debates Syria (see the live stream here) there are now reliable reports that Al Atareb, in the Aleppo governorate near Idlib, and Al Bokumal, near Deir Ez Zor and the border with Iraq, are both under heavy bombardment as we speak.

2048 GMT: The UN General Assembly is voting on a resolution on Syria that has been co-sponsored by 70 countries. Unlike security council agreements, a simple majority is necessary for the resolution to pass, and most expect that it will pass easily. So far, the UN appears to be readying to grant over $900,000 to fund a special envoy on the Syrian crisis who will cooperate with the Arab League.

Russia, Algeria, Lebanon, Sudan, Iraq and Yemen are expected to vote against the resolution. While the vote in non-binding, it could help lend legitimacy to further international efforts to end the crisis.

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Syria Analysis: The Changing Face of a Guerrillla War

See also Syria Feature: Who are the Free Syrian Army?
Syria Opinion: Who Are the Real Opposition?

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This is another important trend about the increasingly asymmetrical tactics of the Free Syrian Army --- they do not not require national or regional leadership. Each local FSA militia seems to be coordinating their own attacks, and each is doing so with different levels of restraint. In Homs, there are dark rumours that FSA units have resorted to kidnapping and torture of their own. As the crisis deepens, the Free Syrian Army will be forced to conduct more asymmetrical warfare, not less, which will further divorce the local militias from any sort of command structure.

Unless foreign intervention, even if limited, takes place, expect more ambushes and more IED attacks, and expect the regime to react to those attacks by shelling more cities.

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EA on the Road: A Day in London

I will be in London today. James Miller and John Horne will be here later for Live Coverage, but updates may be limited until then.

In the meantime, please look at our latest features on Bahrain and Syria and bring in your ideas and news via our Comments section.

Syria Feature: Who are the Free Syrian Army? (Rosen)

Defecting Syrian troops in Saraqeb, Idlib Province, 12 February 2012

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Al Jazeera: Who are the armed opposition?

Nir Rosen: The formation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was declared publicly in the summer of 2011, and has been endorsed by the Syrian National Council, the main opposition bloc. While many in the media trying to cover Syria from outside refer to it as an entity with a leader based in Turkey, there is no central or unified leadership for the armed revolution.

The FSA is a name endorsed and signed on to by diverse armed opposition actors throughout the country, who each operate in a similar manner and towards a similar goal, but each with local leadership. Local armed groups have only limited communication with those in neighbouring towns or provinces - and, moreover, they were operating long before the summer.

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The Latest from Iran (15 February): The Momentum of Protest, Part 2

1905 GMT: Oil Watch. Looks like Tehran has got itself in a muddle with today's grandstanding announcements. While the Ministry of Oil is saying exports to six European countries will be cut off, Hassan Tajik, the Foreign Ministry's deputy for Western Europe, is assuring that supplies will continue.

1850 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council, has sent a note to Catherine Ashton, the foreign policy representative for the European Union, about renewed talks on Iran's nuclear programme.

A spokeswoman said Ashton is consulting with the "5+1" Powers --- the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany --- on a response.

Tehran's letter was revealed as President Ahmadinejad made the announcement that Iran could now produce fuel rods of 19.75% uranium for the Tehran Research Reactor, making medical isotopes. Ahmadinejad also said that new centrifuges at the Natanz facility have "a three-fold higher capacity" compared to older models, boosting Iran's capacity to produce 3.5% lower-enriched nuclear fuel by 50%.

1714 GMT:. Claim of the Day. MP Morteza Agha Tehrani, the head of the Unity Front list of candidates, has asserted that the Islamic Republic has become a model for the world, with even the biggest US philosophers respecting Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi --- the head of the Islamic Constancy Front --- and ceding their speaking time to him.

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Momentum of Protest, Part 1

2110 GMT: Just when it didn't look like the international community could be more divided on Syria, Syrian President Bashar al Assad has called for a Constitutional referendum that would, in theory, end singe-party rule:

The proposed charter drops Article 8, which declared the ruling Baath Party as the "leader of the state and society", allowing for a multi-party system, state television said on Wednesday.

The president, who must be a Muslim man, can serve a maximum of two seven-year terms, although it is unclear if this would apply to Assad, who is already in his second term.

Russia has praised the move, the US called it "laughable," and the posturing continues. For EA, the question of reform can be boiled down into two points: is the regime serious, and does it matter either way?

Reform - Syria was under an emergency rule between 1963 and last April, but violence has been steadily, or exponentially, increasing every month since that emergency law was lifted. Other agreements made by the Assad regime, for instance with the Arab League, have been broken almost immediately. This regime does not have a great record on reform.

Which brings me to the next point - if large segments of Europe, the US, and several Arab nations do not trust the regime, and the opposition does not trust the regime, will any of the reform efforts even matter?

2011 GMT: According to the Local Coordinating Committees of Syria, today's death toll has risen to 32, "among them three children,one woman and one defected soldier. 12 martyrs fell in Idlib, 5 in Damscus Suburbs (Bloudan, Douma, Harsta) 4 fell in Homs, 3 martyrs in Daraa, 3 martyrs in Hama,2 in Hasakeh and 1 in each of Lattakia ,Damascus and Aleppo."

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Bahrain Analysis: Can the Kingdom Learn from Northern Ireland? (Diboll)

Funeral for two teenagers killed by British Army, 1972Northern Ireland suffered a simmering low-intensity civil war that lasted 40 years claiming thousands of lives through the murderous activities of both ethno-sectarian terrorist groups and the British and Northern Irish security forces. This conflict crippled and traumatized tens of thousands, and caused billions of pounds worth of economic damage to the UK, the Irish Republic, and above all Northern Ireland, from which the province will probably never fully recover. Before anything like a lasting settlement could be reached the conflict spread to the mainland UK, with devastating bomb attacks in London, Manchester and elsewhere over a 20 year period, with further killings in several European countries.

None of this has happened yet in Bahrain, but close resemblances to the early days of “The Troubles” and the current situation in Bahrain, combined with the general volatility of the MENA region, demand that those concerned with Bahrain look closely at Northern Ireland in order to learn lessons from that conflict which might prevents Bahrain and her neighbours from experiencing violence on a Northern Irish level, or worse.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Shelling of Homs Continues

Another video of the shelling of the Bab Amro section of the Syrian city Homs this morning:

See also EA's Separate Bahrain Coverage, Bahrain Live Coverage Special: The Anniversary Protests
Syria Opinion: Who Are the Real Opposition?
Bahrain Special: "Responsible Reaction"--- How Police Will "Kettle" Today's Demonstrations
Monday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "The Reasonable Reaction to Provocation"

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2203 GMT: At this late hour there are unconfirmed reports that Al Bukamal, in northeastern Syria on the Iraq border, is under attack. According to one activist, Al Jazeera's Arabic network is also reporting the assault. The city is being defended by the Free Syrian Army, and clashes have been ongoing since earlier in the day, but the fresh reports suggest that they are now more intense.

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Bahrain Live Coverage Special: The Anniversary Protests

2121 GMT: A source in Bahrain forwards us this GRAPHIC PICTURE which they say shows a serious wound that was received when a police officer threw someone out a 3rd-story window. EA Correspondent John Horne adds, " "if true, this is a concerning development. A similar allegation was made Sunday, when police allegedly threw a young man from a first floor foor and then shot at the women who tried to help him."

1923 GMT: The story in Bahrain is not all about violence, however. This video, shared with us by a correspondent in Bahrain, shows the large amount of peaceful protesters who were trying to reach Pearl Roundabout earlier but couldn;t make it because the roads were blocked by police:

1812 GMT: Anti-riot vehicles race through Sanabis, but one of them gets hit by a molotov cocktail:

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