Iran Snap Analysis: Ahmadinejad's Men Strike 1st Blow in the Elections

0545 GMT: This will be a long, complex election process up to March's formal ballot for Parliamentary seats, but it looks like Ahmadinejad supporters can claim a victory in the first skirmish.

On Tuesday, news emerged of the first decisions on who would and would not be allowed to stand among the almost 5400 applicants. The regime spin is that more than 80% made it past the scrutiny of officials of the Ministry of Interior, but the significant story lay in the banning of at least 32 of Iran's 290 MPs.

The banned legislators are from across the political spectrum, but at least nine of them are united in their high-profile criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government. Examples include Ali Motahari, who has led the drive to question and possibly impeach the President; Hamidreza Katouzian, the head of the Energy Committee who has challenged the Government over the economy as well as the energy sector; and Dariush Ghanbari, a leading reformist voice.

Ghanbari's exclusion also raises an interesting dimension in the battle. The blocking of other reformists occurred even though the Supreme Leader's offices, as well as other factions within the establishment, have pressed hard for their participation, both through running for election and through voting on 2 March.

That can lead, I think, to only one conclusion. Those who put the black mark on the high-profile candidates were doing so in support of the President and, to some extent, in defiance of the wishes of the Supreme Leader's advisors.

The decision is far from final. The Guardian Council, the highest-level supervisor of the electoral process, will review all the applicants --- it can re-instate those who have been blocked, and it can ban others. Presuming that the Council is more in line with the wishes of Ayatollah Khamenei, and is not so amenable to Ahmadinejad's inner circle, MPs like Motahari and Ghanbari are likely to be approved.

But that is for later. For now, some people within the Iranian system have tried to make clear that the President is no lame duck and the Supreme Leader does not always get his way.

The Latest from Iran (10 January): "A Big Atomic Bomb Will Come Out"

1945 GMT: Elections Watch. Radio Zamaneh offers an overview of the MPs who have been blocked from running in Parliamentary elections in March. It notes that nine of them --- Ali Motahari, Hamidreza Katouzian, Alireza Mahjoub, Ali Abbaspour Tehrani, Fatemeh Ajorloo, Abbasali Noura, Peymon Forouzesh, Ghodratollah Alikhani and Dariush Ghanbari --- "have all been involved in strong criticism of the administration over the past year".

The Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammadreza Bahonar, said disqualifying government critics among the Principlists from running for office is “narrow-minded". However, Tehran Governor Morteza Tamaddon insisted that the disqualifications were carried out according to the law and in the “interests of the sacred Islamic Republic system".

The nominees have four days to appeal the decision, with the final decision to be made by the Guardian Council.

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: President Assad Makes a Speech

2111 GMT: We close tonight with a map, assembled by activists, that shows the full extent of protests, strikes, and violence today in Syria.

View Syria - Tuesday 10/01/2012 in a larger map

Videos and updates from around Syria. Towns with reported protests are marked in blue. Towns on strike are marked in yellow. Towns with updates alone are marked in green. Red markers show places which are under attack or where martyrs fell today.

We're continuing to collect information from nighttime clashes in Deir Ez Zor, so stay tuned tomorrow morning for more.

2204 GMT: This video was reportedly taken of a protest in Deir Ez Zor tonight. Since then, we have reports of a pitched battle between defectors and the regular army (see update below). We've also seen two more graphic videos, the first shows a man, apparently dead or gravely injured, in a hospital in Deir Ez Zor. The second appears to show the same man (but it's hard to tell), and he is clearly deceased.

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US Elections Opinion: Taking Apart Rick Santorum and "Compassionate Conservatism"

Rick Santorum (Adam Hunger, Reuters)Whether Rick Santorum and his supporters acknowledge it or not, their ideology is authoritarian, just not as dictatorial as the Hobbesian model. A child tax credit is a perfectly defensible proposition --- and Santorum would triple it --- but at heart it is the taking of property from some people to give to other people in the name of morality and the common good.

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Nigeria Feature: How Subsidy Cuts Led to Strike, Protests, and Deaths (Mark)

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Every previous government's attempt to remove the subsidy, which funnels a quarter of the £15.5bn annual government budget to a well-connected cartel of fuel importers, has floundered amid mass protests. Many see the subsidy as a rare opportunity to share in the nation's oil riches, whose 2m barrels per day industry has failed to lift the vast majority of citizens out of extreme poverty. In 2003, there were eight days of strikes when the government attempted to increase fuel prices.

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Iraq Feature: How Torture Revelations May Touch the Highest Levels of NATO (Kaye)

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh RasmussenA scandal unfolding in Denmark over the transfer of Iraqi prisoners by Danish forces to Iraq authorities, even as they knew they would be tortured, threatens to implicate the current Secretary General of NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen, formerly prime minister of Denmark from 2001-2009.

The defense ministry in the government of former Prime Minister Rasmussen is charged with withholding its knowledge of Iraqi torture from legislators when a copy of a 2004 inspection at Al Makil prison in Basra was sent to Parliament.

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Bahrain Feature: #StolenByMOI --- Bahrainis Tell the World "This is What Has Been Taken From Us"

See also Bahrain Opinion: An Open Letter to Journalists "Get The Story Right"

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Yesterday, whilst searching Twitter for news from Bahrain, I discovered the hashtag campaign #StolenByMOI

Scores of Bahraini citizens were sending out poignant messages to the world about what had been stolen from them by the Ministry of Interior (MOI). For many, this was an opportunity to document specific crimes. For others, more personal, emotional messages were sent. I spent a long time reading the tweets, each offering a glimpse into the sadness, anger, and fear, but also the humour and hope. Brought together, they are a collective call for little more than a better life.

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The Latest from Iran (9 January): A Sideshow in Latin America

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2115 GMT: You Can Never Start 'Em Too Young. Shargh claims that the the authorities are launching "Chastity and Hijab" programmes in kindergartens.

2107 GMT: A Message for the Supreme Leader? Former Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Alaei has spoken about the uprising of 9 January 1978 in Qom, suggesting that others should learn from the Shah's experience.

After the uprising, the Shah's security forces put political opponents under house arrest and shot dissenters, but of course this ultimately failed preserve the monarch's throne.

So who are the "others" whom Alaei thinks should learn from the historical example?

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Bahrain Opinion: An Open Letter to Journalists "Get The Story Right"

Nabeel Rajab, President of the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, who was attacked by police on Friday

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Dear Journalists,

Over the coming days, you might find the need to report on Bahrain. Beyond a quick feature about the Countess of Wessex's jewels, courtesy of the regime, or the proposed Formula One Grand Prix, you might notice a story which has got the regime worried about its image.

On Friday, Nabeel Rajab, the President of the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, was beaten by police in Manama. The activist was at the head of a peaceful march and had been talking with security forces, moments before they suddenly attacked. This is not an unusual event in Bahrain at the moment (indeed, by current standards, the police were relatively restrained) but it is significant because Rajab is internationally-respected as a champion of human rights.

The Bahraini regime, and presumably its PR consultants, have a series of lines they are advancing to the media to spin both this specific incident and the wider story. Below are four reporting pitfalls into which several media organisations fell this weekend....

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Morocco Video Feature: Is the February 20th Movement Regaining Momentum?

Thousands march in Sidi Moumen, Casablanca on Sunday

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Whilst the February 20th Movement in Morocco was never extinguished, its initial momentum was lost by last summer to fragmentation, fatigue, and expectation of elections in November. However, following Tuesday's announcement of the new Cabinet, there have been sizeable demonstrations in several cities across the country. The supposed Constitutional reforms have been greeted with cynicism by many who see little potential for genuine democratic change and economic opportunities.

A large protest in Tangier on Sunday

The weekend protests were preceded by extraordinary scenes on Wednesday in Taza.

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