US Elections Analysis: Can Romney Wrap Up Nomination with South Carolina Win?

Romney is riding high after his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. A win in South Carolina, who have elected the eventual nominee in every Republican primary since they were introduced in 1980, would further bolster his claim to be the only "electable" candidate in a contest against President Obama. But that victory is by no means a foregone conclusion.

And a loss would be disastrous for Romney. Not because he lost one state, but because whoever beat him goes into Florida as the sole conservative alternative to Romney. That is not a game which Romney wants to play.

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: How Long Can This Go On?

A rally in Bahrain calls for the hanging of detainees who allegedly killed policemen in March 2011 (see 1039 GMT)

See also Bahrain Video Feature: The Second "Manama March" and the Police Response
Morocco Feature: Will a Rapper's Release Be the Catalyst for More Protests?
Syria Opinion: The Assad Regime Cannot End this Crisis
Friday's Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An Attack in Homs

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2127 GMT: Reuters has more on the attack by Syrian troops, backed by tanks, on Zabadani, near the border with Lebanon.

"Communications have been cut but we managed to get through to several people. Tanks are bombarding the town and have entered the outskirts, but they are being met with resistance. The Free Syrian Army (army defectors) has strong presence in the area," Kamal al-Labwani, a senior opposition figure from Zabadani who fled to Jordan two weeks ago, said.

Al-Labwani continued, "The people of Zabadani have taken up arms to protect themselves and I am afraid we could see lots of casualties. At least 50 tanks are involved in the attack and explosions are already being heard in residential areas."

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Bahrain Video Feature: The Second "Manama March" and the Police Response

In dramatic scenes last week, Bahraini police attacked a march in the capital Manama with tear gas and beating partcipants, including leading activist Nabeel Rajab.

Rajab promised after the incident that there would be another march, and so it proved last night as hundreds of people gathered in the location of last week's clash. Again the police asked Rajab to disperse the demonstrators. Again he refused. Again the security forces attacked with tear gas and flash grenades.

Activists' montage of the events, beginning with the prominence of the horn-backed slogan, "Down Down [King] Hamad" and continuing with the showdown with the police:

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Morocco Feature: Will a Rapper's Release Be the Catalyst for More Protests?

Moroccoan rapper El-Haqed and the crowd greeting his release from prison on Thursday

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Thursday's release of 24-year-old rapper Mouad Belghouat, a.k.a "El-Haqed", may be a significant catalyst for the swell of youth unrest.

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The Latest from Iran (13 January): Beyond "Safe and Sane" --- Watching The Economy

President Ahmadinejad, on his trip to Cuba, pronounces that former Cuban leader Fidel Castro is "safe and sane"

See also Iran Snap Analysis: Are the Oil Sanctions Tightening on Tehran?
Iran Video: Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera - Tehran, China, & US Sanctions
The Latest from Iran (12 January): After the Tehran Bomb

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2015 GMT: Chest-Thumping.of the Day. Fars has picked up the story from The New York Times (see 0900 GMT) that the Obama Administration has sent a warning to the Supreme Leader that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a “red line” that will bring an American response.

1940 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has pulled back from the support of his Finance Minister, Jun Azumi (see separate analysis), for tougher sanctions by Tokyo on Iran.

Azumi had said Thursday, after talks with US Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner, that Japan would reduce oil imports but Noda said today that the Government has yet to decide because businesses implications need to be considered. He described Azumi's remarks as a "personal view".

Noda continued, "Japan's basic stance is to resolve such matters diplomatically and peacefully. We need to consult with the business community, and we need to work out details with U.S. officials. We have to think about the implications for Japanese banks, and what measures are needed to resolve possible negative impact."

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Iran Snap Analysis: Are the Oil Sanctions Tightening on Tehran?

We already knew about the US effort to persuade Japan and South Korea to reduce their supply of oil from Iran. What is striking now is the inclusion of China. Officially, Beijing is taking the firm stance that it will not agree to any stiffened sanctions. We have suspected that, behind the scenes, the Chinese might be more accommodating to a reduction of their imports from the Islamic Republic.  The New York Times observes, "This weekend [China's] prime minister, Wen Jiabao, will begin a five-day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, perhaps to explore the prospect of increased energy imports."

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Syria Opinion: The Assad Regime Cannot End this Crisis

CNN's Nic Robertson reports from Homs, where French journalist Gilles Jacquier was killed on Wednesday.

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What is beyond dispute is that the Assad regime has lost control of the country. At best, it is no longer capable of defending its citizens, and even its state-sponsored tours by foreign journalists, from attack. At worst, the regime is responsible for planting one of several bombs in the capital, is guilty of killing Gilles Jacquier to frame "terrorists", and is carrying out killings, widespread arrests, torture, and kidnapping campaigns to beat the opposition into submission.

Either way, the government of Syria has failed its people, proving incapable of restoring order. And so far, evidence points to the worst-case scenario more often than it points to the best.

If the Syrian government is incapable of ending this crisis, who is capable, and are they willing to take that responsibility?

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An Attack in Homs

Gunfire and explosions in Homs as defectors defend the city against the army

See Also, Morocco Analysis: Where are the Women in the New Government?
Afghanistan Video: Controversial Footage of US Marines Urinating on Bodies of Insurgents
EA Video Feature: A Tribute to Journalist Gilles Jacquier, Killed Today in Syria

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2103 GMT: A large protest in Idlib in Syria tonight:

And a mass rally in Khalidiya in Homs chants to the Arab League Secretary General "Nabil El Araby is a traitor":

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The Latest from Iran (12 January): After the Tehran Bomb

2119 GMT: The Tehran Bomb. Fars reports that the Ministry of Interior refused permits for "student" protests, condemning the death of scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, in front of the British, German, and French Embassies today.

2049 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Anti-regime bloggers have launched a website in support of Mehdi Khazali, the physician and blogger detained once again this week.

Khazali has been seized three times since the 2009 Presidential election.

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Iran Video: Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera - Tehran, China, & US Sanctions

I appeared on Al Jazeera English's Inside Story on Wednesday, with Professor Sadegh Zibakalam and former Iranian diplomat Mehrdad Khansari, to discuss US efforts for tightened Chinese sanctions on Tehran.

The headline is easy enough: Beijing will not publicly back the US effort. Far more interesting are the complexities beyond --- China's private position, which may include a continued decrease in supplies from Iran; the restrictions on Tehran's oil from other customers, such as Japan and the European Union; and Iran's internal economic situation.

It was interesting to me to hear the difference of approach on that latter issue --- for me, it is even more important than the US manoeuvres; for Professor Zibakalam, it seemed secondary to the regime's manipulation of "sanctions" to hold public support. And I also noted the very different perspectives among the panellists on the Straits of Hormuz issue and the prospect of war.

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