Iran Analysis: The Detentions Reach the Supreme Leader --- So How Far Does the Opposition Go?

In the last 48 hours, the family and supporters of Mehdi Karroubi have re-stated their claims and grievances against the detention of Karroubi and his wife Fatemeh, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Zahra Rahnavard. They are pointing not only to the sudden arrests but the lies of Iranian officials as they deny that any move has taken place, even insisting that the four opposition figures are "in comfort" in their homes.

But, in the last 48 hours, the Karroubi camp has not just called for the release of their patriarch or for more lenience. Instead, they have named names about those whom they blame for the arrest of the Karroubi.

And at the top of the list is the Supreme Leader.

Saham News made the direct challenge yesterday, reporting that Ayatollah Khamenei’s hand was visible in the move of the Karroubis to detention on 21 February. The site claimed that Vahid Haghanian, the executive advisor of Khamenei and a high-ranking member of his office, personally oversaw the seizures.

Haghanian, who is often referred to as "Commander Vahid" or just Vahid, is a shadowy character who is said to be very close to Khamenei and to hold a great deal of power and influence within the regime. However, his actions are almost never publicised. So in making the claim, the Karroubi camp is not only defying regime propaganda to put out sensitive information but is showing a willingness to take this all the way to exposing the manoeuvres of Khamenei's inner circle. 

Meanwhile, Karroubi’s son Mohammad Taghi Karroubi went after the Government, publicly challenging Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi‘s assertion that his father was merely under house arrest and had not been detained and was being held at an unknown location.

Yesterday, you were cited as claiming that the Mr Mousavi and Karroubi are free and their families [can] meet with them. The propagation of this false report was both surprising and unfortunate. Hearing this news from a figure such as yourself under the watchful eyes of the international press and the wise people of Iran, amazed everyone....I doubt whether there is a single Iranian who is unaware of the disappearance of these great people. Have you not read the aching letter of Mousavi’s children? Have you not heard the protests of the people these days? Have you not followed the news about the condemnation of these acts by a number of clergymen and well-known figures in the country?

Can anyone believe that the country’s foreign policy chief is unaware of the most important event in his country which has become one of the most controversial topisc in the international media? If we accept this assumption, we must ask if a person unfamiliar with the most self-evident facts about his own society can protect the national interests of a country with honor, goodwill, and wisdom in today’s complex world. Are such a person and his team of associates really able to gain the trust of the international community when it comes to the peacefulness of the country’s nuclear program?

Coupled with the disclosure of Vahid’s role in the arrest of Karroubi and this week's letters of complaint from the daughters of Mousavi and Rahnavard, it appears that the detentions have opened a new front against the regime.

Iranian authorities have not responded to the criticisms nor hasthey taken any drastic actions against the children of the leaders. But now that the Karroubi supporters have raised the stakes by bringing in the Supreme Leader, it seems very likely that they will.

So what does this mean for the opposition? 

Certainly Mousavi and Karroubi have been valuable at the head of the post-election challenge. Their voices have sent shockwaves throughout Iran, enabling mass protests to be held and at the same time created divisions within the government. But what the Green Movement desperately needs at this moment is decentralisation. As long as there are only two perceived leaders, it is easy for the Government to pick them up and throw them in a dark dungeon.

However, if Karroubi and Mousavi’s children lend their voices to the movement, and if they are joined by other former and current politicians and reformists, it will become harder and harder for the regime to round them all up and stop the flow of internal criticism.

The strategy has proven to be a success with the Green Movement’s street activists. Decentralisation in planning has meant they could hold rallies without the presence or word from their imprisoned leaders.

Maybe it’s time --- even as the challenge reads to the top of the regime --- for decentralisation of leadership.