Iran Special: Why the "Green Zone" in Tehran is Important Again

On 1 March (10 Esfand), an eyewitness for the Tehran Bureau described the scene in Tehran:

It seems like the regime is creating a "Green Zone" --- my sarcastic reference to the green zone in Baghdad -- in central Tehran. To the north is Motahari Boulevard (formerly Takht-e Tavous) and Fatemi Avenue (Aryamehr); to the east, Imam Hossein Square (Fouzieh); to the south, Imam Khomeini Avenue (ex Sepah), around the presidential palace as well as Mr. Mousavi's home; and finally, to the west, Azadi Square (formerly Shahyad). This is the area where the Green Movement took over for a while with their chants of "Death to the dictator," and the new joint slogan, "Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein; Ya Mahdi, Sheik Mahdi," which infuse the names of the modern leaders of the Green Movement with Shia symbolism.

For the last 20+ months, the Green Zone has shifted, grown, shrank, grown again. It has existed in the streets, the sidewalks, the Internet, the houses and offices of the opposition movement, and even in the mouths of dissenting clerics, some of whom preside over the Assembly of Experts. The Green Zone has been bold, a clear sign of defiance against the regime, and sometimes meek, cancelling protests when permits were not given, or bowing to the supremacy of the mullahs. One thing is now clear, however,  that the Green Zone is trying to expand while the government is trying to force it to shrink down to nothing.

Last Tuesday was the latest chapter in this struggle. First-hand accounts describe large protests, perhaps larger in some areas of Tehran than those of 14 February (25 Bahman). But they also recount a worrying sign that even this significant turnout was outnumbered by the security forces. For the most part, the demonstrations confined to sidewalks, and communications were shut off in areas of the city where they were taking place. Protesters were arrested, the opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi were already detained.... The Green Zone is being squeezed, hard, and the consequences are as severe as ever for crossing the regime.

It is always difficult to know what is going on in the Green Zone. Information comes in small bits, a picture here, an unconfirmed video there, an SMS message, a Tweet, or an e-mail. Eventually, we can make out the reports of deaths, or the numbers of security, or the dozens who were arrested. We can get a general picture of the regime pressing harder to remove defiance. These images are like that of a hand squeezing a lime. The lime is harder to see.

Experts and journalists are correct when they noted the complicated political situation in Iran. That is not just a situation of Green v. regime, but the relationship between an establishment such as former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and the authorities, as the election of the head of the Assembly of Experts, the position currently held by Rafsanjani, takes place on Monday and Tuesday.

Will Rafsanjani speak out against the regime if he is ousted from his position? Will former President Mohammad Khatami be arrested like the other two reformists? Will Mousavi or Karroubi be formerly arrested or tried? Any of these events could prompt a significant increase in anti-government sentiment.

Equally important could be possible schisms inside the regime. Will Sadegh Larijani, head of Iran's judiciary, who opposed the arrest of the reformists, become frustrated with the Supreme Leader's willful disrespect for the rule of law? Will more clerics express their weariness with the brutal tactics of the regime? Will the Revolutionary Guards Corps turn on their commanders if asked to attack their own people? These are not empty speculations: these were the types of events that, fostered by the peaceful protesters in Tahrir Square, eventually led to the ouster of Egypt's President Mubarak.

It is hard to ignore the message coming from inside the Green Zone itself. For at least a year, some have come out to protest, in smaller numbers, in doubt, and in fear. Hope has always been present, but expectations of success have been lacking. Now the doubt is gone, and the fear has turned to defiance. The opposition on the ground, made up of fathers and sons, students and teachers, has become bold once again. There is an enthusiasm and a "buzz" that has been lacking for many months. In fact, the enthusiasm may be greater now than it was in summer 2009.

This is an importantt, at least as important as the grander political situation I mentioned above, because at the end of the day it will be the Iranians on the street who will force the hands of the politicians. It will be a rising opposition movement on the ground that will become the catalyst for change in the political system.

So far, observations about political infighting have been inconclusive, though perhaps this will change soon. Right now, the energy is pouring out of the emails, the Tweets, the blog posts. The opposition is fired up; the Green Zone is refusing to go gently into that good night. 

Like a lime being squeezed, the Green Movement is slipping its bonds. The iron fist of the regime tries to tighten its grip, but the Green Zone expands and slips through its fingers.