Turkey Analysis: Beyond the Car Bombs --- The Kurds, Iraq, and Syria

Last week, two car bombs exploded in Reyhanli in southern Turkey, close to the Syrian border, killing almost 50 people and injuring more than 100.

While nobody claimed responsibility for the deadly incident, it raised the immediate question of whether Turkey would escalate its intervention in Syria, either alone or with others.

However, that reaction was too narrow and missed the wider context. This is not just about the Syrian conflict but also Turkey's internal politics, specifically its attempt to resolve the sensitive Kurdish issue.

The primary concern for the Erdogan government is the ongoing peace drive with the Kurdish leadership, including imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. So the question is not just whether the events in Reyhanli complicated Turkey's position inside Syria but also whether they threaten these delicate internal negotiations.

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Turkey (and Beyond) Summary: PKK Sets Withdrawal Date

Turkey: PKK Announces Withdrawal from Turkey

The Kurdish PKK insurgency has announced it will withdraw thousands of fighters from Turkish soil starting 8 May.

The insurgents will move to northern Iraq as part of the peace process between the Erdogan Government and PKK head Abdullah Ocalan, seeking to end three decades of conflict.. 

The PKK warned the Turkish military against "provocations" which would result in the end of the pledged withdrawal. The organisation said the move would be phased over montha and --- in a declaration likely to be opposed by the Government --- said fighters would keep their weapons.

Turkey Analysis: Kurdish Fighters Begin Withdrawal --- Is Peace on the Way?

Prime Minister ErdoganAs part of peace talks, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has begun withdrawing forces in small groups from northern Turkey near the Black Sea, even though the PKK, backed by Turkish opposition groups, was unable to get Parliamentary oversight of the move.

So does this mean the "peace process" between the Erdogan Government and PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan is on its way to resolving the decades-long crisis?

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Turkey Analysis: Erdogan's Risky Game on The Kurdish Issue

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoganOn the surface, there continues to be advance towards the "historic" resolution of the Kurdish issue. Dig a bit deeper, however, and you wll hit a major block: the ambitions of a Prime Minister trying to maintain and increase his power at every step of the process.

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Bahrain (and Beyond) Live: An Agenda for a National Dialogue?

See also Syria Live: Insurgent Attacks in Central Aleppo
Monday's Mali (and Beyond) Live: At Least 7 Killed in Timbuktu Fighting

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1745 GMT: Tunisia. Tunisian officials and personnel from the International Monetary Fund will begin a week-long meeting on Monday, with a view to completing a $1.78 billion loan by late April or early May.

The IMF loan accord would require Tunisia to commit to a set of structural economic reforms. While the government sees the IMF loan as key to advancing development in Tunisia, there has been considerable criticism of the measure within the country.

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Turkey Analysis: Will the Kurdish Peace Offer Survive the Next Steps?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan & Abdullah OcalanLast week Abdullah Ocalan, the head of the Kurdish insurgency PKK, wrote a new page on Turkey's Kurdish issue with his New Year's message setting out a path to peace.

The carefully-prepared statement called on both Turks and Kurds to unite in a democratic country, setting out practical measures such as the withdrawal of PKK forces from Turkey.

The PKK‘s leaders approved the directives. The Government’s response was welcoming.

Yet this still may not be enough for a permanent resolution.

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Turkey Special: Kurdish Leader Ocalan "Nearing Deal" with Erdogan

So now we know the basis of reports that there may be a "solution of the Kurdish issue". Speculation, sometimes fed by the Erdogan Government, has risen amid a renewal of meetings with the imprisoned leader of the PKK insurgency, Abdullah Ocalan, on Imrali Island. However, it is with the leak of Ocalan's conversation with pro-Kurdish MPs that speculation has turned into expectation.

What Did Ocalan Say?

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Turkey Analysis: Erdogan's "One Leader, One Nation, One Market" --- Will It Succeed?

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoganIt is a busy and tricky time for the Erdogan Government : relations stuck with the European Union, a possible peace process to solve the Kurdish question, the long-awaited new Constitution, prospects of switching to a Presidential system, and next year's elections.

>The combination requires finely-adjusted diplomatic steps with opposition parties. For instance, the support of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) takes on importance in the Constitution-making process, while the main opposition faction, the Republican People's Party (CHP), has a role in the consensus over counter-terrorism.

So how to hold all this together? Despite some inconsistencies by the Government in its approach, there are three notions that are immutable: "One Leader, One Nation, One Market".

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Turkey Analysis: The Opposition, the Government, and the “Grand Kurdish Settlement”

Abdullah Ocalan and Recep Tayyip ErdoganThe challenges to a "grand Kurdish project" go beyond Ankara. The first is over the crisis in Syria --- indirectly involving Iran --- where the Erdogan Government has no intention of repairing times with Syrian Kurds of the Democratic Union Party. The second is the inclusion of Iraq's Massoud Barzani in a political process: it is unclear what incentive Ankara has to acknowledge, let alone accept, the demand of the pro-Kurdish opposition party BDP.

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Turkey (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Three Kurdish Officials Killed in Paris Attack

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1623 GMT: Turkey. The Chairman of the Federation of Kurdish Associations of France, Mehmet Ulker, claiming to quote French policemen, has said that the Paris killings were carried out by more than one professional.

1613 GMT: Turkey. The Vice-Chairman of the pro-Kurdish BDP party, Gulten Kisanak, puts out a warning:

Even if those murderers get lost like a mole, they will be held accountable. This massacre is not an ordinary one. Clearly, it is a political murder. It is a trap set for the solution of the Kurdish question. Whoever attempts to cover, justify or distort this, he/she will be the murderer. Whoever, while there is no proof, calls the murder of three revolutionist women who were on duty to carry out their people's struggle as an internal execution and distorts it, he/she is either murderer, or knows the murderers or wants to protect the murderers.

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