A scenario. The regime will continue to fight for control of the supply lines that run from Damascus to Homs, Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo. As it does so, it will lose more territory to the north and east of Aleppo. The vice will eventually close on the city, and it will fall to the FSA.
And if Aleppo falls, this war is over. Assad will then lose all of Idlib Province --- which has in effect already happened --- then Hama, then Homs.
In short, unless there is a surprising change in the course of this fight, every indication is that the President Assad cannot win this war.
2030 GMT:Syria. At least initially, the greatest threat that the Syrian crisis poses to the region has nothing to do with terrorism or chemical weapons or cross-border firefights, but has everything to do with the massive amounts of refugees flooding some countries, particularly Turkey and Lebanon, but also Iraq and Jordan. As fighting is heating up in Damascus, the amount of refugees in Lebanon has rapidly risen to an extraordinary number:
Between 8,500 and 30,000 Syrians have crossed into Lebanon in the last 48 hours, an agency spokeswoman, Melissa Fleming, said at a news briefing in Geneva. The new flood adds to an exodus of more than 112,000 who have already registered as refugees in Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan, and many thousands more who have fled but not registered. United Nations relief agencies say three-quarters of them are women and children, often arriving in a desperate state with no more than the clothes they are wearing. Internally, as many as a million people have been displaced, according to the Syrian Arab Red Crescent.
1942 GMT:Syria. The Free Syrian Army has engaged the Assad military in heavy fighting in the city of Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), for the second day in a row today...
2031 GMT:Syria. As the fight for territory heats up, so too will Assad's use of artillery and mortars to dislodge insurgents. But most of the casualties from these events are actually civilians.
Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), is a perfect example. As battles rage elsewhere in the city, this shell falls on a residential neighborhood:
The bombardment is still on for the 5th day in a row, targeting the districts of Damascus more fiercely than ever. The bombardment is the strongest on Al Qaboun and Al Meedan districts as regime's militias are using tanks and helicopters and are attempting to invade the districts.
1958 GMT:Syria. Defections have been occurring at a faster and faster pace, but today there were reports that a relative trickle, perhaps a hundred ot a few hundred soldiers every week, may have finnaly reached flood-stage, with unconfirmed reports that hundreds of fighters jumped ship.
There are reports that a single new brigade of Free Syrian Army soldiers, the "Unification Brigade" claiming to be made up of soldiers from many different backgrounds, contained more than 100 soldiers, all of whom appear to be heavily armed, and that those soldiers are also equipped with multiple vehicles armed with heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft weapons.
1812 GMT:Egypt. In the latest chapter of the battle between Egypt's President Morsi and the former regime(see update 0535), Morsi has no said that he will respect the latest court rulings, despite disagreeing with them, over the parliament issue:
In a statement Wednesday, the president says he will seek dialogue with political forces and judicial authorities in an effort to ease tensions over the dispute.
CNN's Ivan Watson has this analysis - "Morsi blinks."
1722 GMT:Syria. Shells fall in a neighborhood of Deir Ez Zor:
Kofi Annan has granted President Assad a carte blanche license to continue the killing, in the name of hunting down an illegal insurgency. The Free Syrian Army, according to this plan, should lay down its weapons and trust that the Assad regime is ready to negotiate cease fires and a political transition. Statements like these read as if the Free Syrian Army started this fire, the Free Syrian Army fired on protesting civilians in the streets of Daraa and Hama and Damascus, and the Assad regime can be trusted with being an unchallenged military force.
2044 GMT:Saudi Arabia. Earlier we posted video reportedly showing large protests in Qatif, a response to a series of clashes between police and activists, the death of a protester, and the imprisonment of a prominent cleric.
I spoke with Monocle 24 at lunchtime about President Assad's interview with German television (see separate EA feature), considering both the presentation and the politics.
Lots of take-away points, but the most interesting may be the conjunction of the interview with UN envoy Kofi Annan's visit to Damascus today. Could Assad be gambling for his survival on a Russia-Iran-Syria counter-weight to the international pressure upon him?
To get to the interview, go to "The Briefing" page, click on "Play" on the programme for 9 July, and go to the 18:30 mark.
1818 GMT:Syria. Earlier we saw many reports of shells falling on the small town of Busrah al Harir, in Daraa province (map). Now, the LCC shares this video reportedly showing shells falling on the town:
Jürgen Todenhöfer of Germany's ARD interviews President Assad on Thursday --- the discussion was broadcast last night.
Among the take-aways, Assad claims that he still has public support, that the majority of those killed in the 16-month conflict are "Government supporters" slain by "terrorists" and "outlaws", and that the US carries part of the blame for supporting these "terrorists:
Sunday, July 22, 2012 at 10:40
