Bahrain Special: 9 Reasons Why The Regime Gave Human Rights Activist Nabeel Rajab a 3-Year Sentence

Nabeel Rajab leading a march in April 2012

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Whilst much of the Bahrain regime's ongoing repression is relatively free from international scrutiny, Thursday's sentencing of leading human rights activist Nabeel Rajab to three years --- on three separate charges of instigating and participating in "illegal gatherings" --- will not go unnoticed. In recent weeks, many international NGOs and even 19 members of the US Congress have called for the immediate release from detention of Rajab, who is also serving a three-month sentence for his messages on Twitter.

So why would the Bahraini regime, which has been desperately seeking to convince the international community that it is committed to reform, hand down the lengthy sentence, an act bound to create questions about its commitment?

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Iran Feature: Can Tehran and the West Close the Nuclear "Trust Gap"? (Wheeler/Nedal)

The flaw at the heart of Western policy has been its failure to recognise the extent to which its use of threats as a means of leveraging concessions from Iran has served to increase Iranian mistrust. This, in turn, has strengthened the hand of those members of the Iranian leadership who argue that the only means of safeguarding the country’s security lies in the maintenance of a latent nuclear weapons capability.

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Iran Analysis: West To Tehran on Nuclear Issue "Accept Our Demands or No More Talks" (Rozen)

Catherine Ashton and Saeed JaliliEuropean Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton told her Iranian counterpart Thursday that Iran needs to agree soon on a plan to stop its 20% enrichment, or there wasn’t much prospect of the current diplomatic track continuing as such indefinitely.

That, anyway, seemed to be the message between the lines of a stark four-line statement she made after a phone call Thursday with Dr. Saeed Jalili, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

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The Latest from Iran (2 August): Worrying About Syria

January 2012: From left to right --- Iran's Supreme Leader, Syria's Assad, Yemen's Saleh, Libya's Qaddafi, Egypt's Mubarak, and Tunisia's Ben Ali

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2048 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Laura Ashton reports that the lead nuclear negotiators for the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) and Russia spoke by phone today.

The European Union's Catherine Ashton, speaking to Saeed Jalili, "impressed the need for Iran now to address issues". The two, speaking for the first time since high-level talks in Moscow in mid-June, agreed to reflect and speak again at the end of month.

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Iran Document: Tehran's Official Proposals in the Nuclear Talks in Moscow

Moscow Nuclear Talks, 18-19 JuneThe file consists of three major sections:

1. Iran's Package of Proposals to the world Powers
2. Evidence and documents proving that uranium enrichment is Iran's inalienable right despite the western allegations
3. And Iran's response to the proposals offered by the world powers

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The Latest from Iran (6 July): Tehran Puts Out Positive Nuclear Messages

See also The Latest from Iran (5 July): Chest-Thumping

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2030 GMT: Sanctions. Canada's TD Bank Group has begun closing the accounts of some of its customers, saying it is complying with new federal regulations for economic sanctions against Iran.

The bank has sent letters to clients telling them that, under recent changes to the Special Economic Measures (Iran) Regulation, Canadian financial institutions are forbidden from providing financial services to anyone in Iran or for the benefit of Iran. That includes any use of an account to send or receive money via wire transfer to or from friends and family in Iran.

So far, no other Canadian bank has taken similar action.

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Iran Audio Analysis: The Moscow Nuclear Talks --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

EU's Catherine Ashton & Iran's Saeed JaliliLast night I spent more than 10 minutes with Monocle 24, setting out the issues at the nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) and assessing the day's developments.

The conclusion? Despite my pessimism before the talks and throughout the day over the discussions, there may be an opening for negotiations with Iran's five-point proposal on uranium enrichment and eased sanctions --- provided the US and Europe want an agreement short of a capitulation by Tehran, provided the details back up the general outline of the proposal, and provided the talks are not diverted by issues like intervention in Syria.

All big ifs.....

The discussion starts at the 17:53 mark.

The Latest from Iran (18 June): The Nuclear Talks in Moscow

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Supreme Leader's Dilemma
Remember Iran Flashback: Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter
The Latest from Iran (17 June): "So What?" News --- Ahmadinejad to Leave Politics

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2046 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Julian Borger of The Guardian reveals both the Iranian PowerPoint presentation rejecting the 5+1 proposal of "stop, shut, and ship" 20% enriched uranium and Tehran's five-point plan:

1) The right to enrich uranium, coupled with the 'operationalisation' of the Supreme Leader's fatwa against nuclear weapons. [Lead Iranian negotiator Saeed] Jalili suggested this could be done in the form of a UN document, in which Iran promised not to pursue weapons in return for continuing to enrich;

2) Relief from sanctions in return for cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency;

3) Nuclear cooperation in the fields of civilian nuclear energy production and nuclear safety;

4) Confidence-building measures, possibly involving limits on production of 20% uranium;

5) Non-nuclear issues like cooperation on counter-narcotics plus regional matters like Syria and Bahrain.

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The Latest from Iran (16 June): Preparing for the Nuclear Talks

See also Remember Iran Video: The Surprise of the Protests (Marandi/Ehteshami/Lucas)
Remember Iran Flashback: Four Scenarios for a Vote Recount (Emery)
Remember Iran Flashback: 16 June 2009 Live Coverage --- A Compromise by the Regime?
The Latest from Iran (15 June): Politics and Corruption

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1608 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back to our opening entry, with President Ahmadinejad hugging the optimistic portion of the regime line (see 0510 GMT), "We are ready on a voluntary basis to make a positive step if the other party makes a similar step. We hope that we will make progress in Moscow."

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The Latest from Iran (12 June): Three Years Ago Today

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special
Remember Iran: A Day That Changed the Country, the Region, and the Media
Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From Political Prisoners in Danger to Pepsi's Logo on the Moon
Remember Iran: A Preview of the Presidential Election (11 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: "How Not to Cover Iran's Elections --- The Awards Ceremony" (12 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): A Fraud Case Reaches the Government

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Photo: AFP/Getty1940 GMT: Economy Watch. The World Bank has projected that Iran’s economy will shrink 1% this year.

“Product boycotts and financial sanctions are expected to exact a toll on growth over 2012 and 2013,” the Bank said in a report published Tuesday. It predicted a further contraction of 0.7% next year.

1900 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. In a further sign of a strategy moving Turkey away from imports of Iranian oil, Ankara has begun discussions with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude purchases.

Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz said today, "Talks with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude oil purchases have started. This doesn't concern only [Turkish refiner] Tupras but also concerns Saudi Arabia's Aramco. Talks are still going on; they will discuss the quantities between them."

On Monday, the US said it would exempt Turkey from financial sanctions because it has cut purchases of Tehran's oil. A report this week indicated that Turkish imports fell 45% between March and May.

A US diplomat indicated that Washington granted the waiver with the expectation of further cuts, "So Turkey now has 180 days, Tupras has 180 days to take a look at its oil situation to decide - can it reduce further, can it get to zero? - what it needs to do."

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