How many reformists will carry through on the threat to stay away from Parliamentary elections? Former President Mohammad Khatami has walked a careful line, calling for no fielding of candidates but also holding back from telling people not to vote. It is clear, however, that almost all reformist factions are holding that line during this week's registration of candidates. Groups such as the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, as well as Ayatollah Mousavi Khoeiniha, leading reformist political prisoners, and the detained 2009 Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, have all made clear their opposition to reformists seeking Parliamentary seats.
That is bad news for elements in the regime, including the Supreme Leader's office, the Revolutionary Guards, and conservative/principlist rivals of the President, who are worried that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's camp will use organisation and money to bring out their support and win a majority in the Majlis.