Syria Analysis: Chemical Weapons, the US, and the Insurgency

The use of chemical weapons or their possession by the "wrong" forces, while genuinely considered a threat by US and European governments, has been used to date to justify the build-up of a multi-national base in Jordan, with training and the supply of weapons to insurgents.

The US Secretary of State, though indirectly and carefully, opens up the prospect: will the chemical weapons argument now be used to escalate that support, possibly moving it into the open?

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Syria Live: A Mass Killing Near Damascus

2107 GMT: Death Toll Rises. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 96 people have been killed so far today nationwide:

47 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its suburbs; 23 in Aleppo; 9 in Idlib; 8 in Homs; 3 in Daraa; 2 in Deir Ezzor; 2 in Hama; 1 in Raqqa; and 1 in Lattakia.

That number is over an hour old. With the amount of violence reported, expect it to rise by morning.

See our note on the casualty figures published by the LCC.

2059 GMT: Opposition Group Calls for Rebellion to "Correct its Path". The Local Coordination Committee of Douma has called for the unification of all rebel groups under the control of the Free Syrian Army east of Damascus. The goal is not just about combat effectiveness, however. The unification is important " for the sake of supporting and achieving the revolution goals in freedom, and dignity and in toppling the regime and building up a civil democratic state for all Syrians regardless of their backgrounds and religion."

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Syria Live Coverage: Britain and France to Lift Arms Embargo on Insurgents?

1832 GMT: Massacre in Daraa. The Daraa Coordination Committee reports that at least 20 people have been found dead near a checkpoint in Daraa after they were arrested:

20 People from Daraa Mahata were martyred under torture at Hamida Taher checkpoint. Their bodies were moved to the national hospital; of which the following martyrs were identified: Sheik Walid al-Sari Abazeed, Mujahed Abazeed, Sheik Musleh Ayyash, Sheik Rabea al-Kakouni, Waseem Ali al-Falouji, Nassar Abu-Nabbout, Youssef al-Mefalani, Abu-Moayad Labash al-Abazeed.

At this point, 5 graphic videos posted to the Daraa Committee's Youtube channel show bodies of men that have some of the hallmark's of torture. Beatings, bruises, what may be burn marks or puncture wounds, black eyes, broken noses, gunshots to the head... the videos are ugly.

The Hamida Tahrir district is just north of Daraa Albalad, the southern half of Daraa that is still in rebel control (map). The checkpoint here, however, is under government control. It has reportedly been used to ensure that rebel spies, sympathizers, and defectors do not reach rebel territory or ferry information back and forth.

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Syria Audio Analysis: Stories Beyond European Arms Embargo on the Insurgents --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily last night about the possibility that the European Union, with a high-level meeting today in Brussels, might lift the embargo on arms to the insurgents.

Listen to interview, from the 5:46 mark, on The Daily's homepage or in a pop-out window.

The conversation quickly moved beyond that headline to the important realities and questions, including: 1) European countries such as Britain and France are already involved --- if not publicly --- in provision of weaponis to the insurgency; 2) the foreign special forces who may be inside Syria already; 3) the complications of the arms supply to the insurgency, with incidents such as the kidnapping of United Nations peacekeepers last week --- "this is not a clean operation; there is not one single opposition army here".

Israel (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Pressure Builds Over Settlements

Settlement at Modi'in Illit in West Bank (Photo: AP)

Syria Live Coverage: The Fighting Near Aleppo's Historic Mosque
Tuesday's Israel (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 1st Rocket Fired from Gaza Since November's War

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2004 GMT: Egypt. Ahram Online's summary of clashes in Mansoura, with dozens injured since Monday, since protesters called for a campaign of civil disobedience:

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Syria Audio Feature: Why Europe's "Embargo" on Arms to Insurgents is Not an Embargo --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's Midori House last night about the European Union's three-month extension of its arms embargo on all Syrian groups, with some flexibility brought in for "non-lethal aid".

Listen to interview from the 5:40 mark

The story beyond the story: publicly the EU may be maintaining the line that it is not providing military support to the opposition, but some European States are aware of --- and may be involved in --- the efforts by other countries such as the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to get high-quality weapons to the insurgency.

Syria Live Coverage: Hezbollah Emerges in the Conflict

2336 GMT: Scud Strikes - Aleppo City. This video, one of several similar, reportedly shows part of one of the buildings that collapsed in the Jabal Badro district of Aleppo, reportedly after the fall of at least one SCUD missile:

2315 GMT: Scud Strikes. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has released a statement about tonight's alleged SCUD attacks:

8 civilians, including a child, were killed by the bombardment on Jabal Badro, in the Tariq al-Bab neighbourhood of Aleppo. It is thought that the bombs were a surface-to-surface missile. the number of dead is likely to rise due to the large amount of casualties and that there are several people still under the rubble of destroyed buildings. An SOHR activist in the Tariq al-Bab neighbourhood witnessed the desperate cries of a man who had 15 of his family members under the rubble of their house; he also reported witnessing the body of a child being pulled out of a building, the head was detached from the body. Violent clashes are taking place by the police branch in the Zebdiya neighbourhood, also clashes in Bustan al-Qasr. The Jazmatiya neighbourhood was bombarded by the airforce.

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Iran Live Coverage: Nuclear Talks Resume on 26 February

See also Iran Audio Analysis: The Downfall of Ahmadinejad, The Resumption of Nuclear Talks --- Scott Lucas with the BBC and Monocle 24
Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: Humiliation of Ahmadinejad Continues --- Advisor Mortazavi Arrested

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2119 GMT:The Battle Within. Hamidreza Taraghi, a senior member of the conservative Motalefeh Party, hsa said that "the nezam [system] can bear Ahamadinejad, but has no problem with his dismissal either --- the,decision re bearing with him is with the Supreme Leader".

1819 GMT:Sanctions Watch. The US Treasury has sanctioned State broadcasters such as IRIB for helping the Government censor opposition.

The Treasury alsn named IRIB director Ezzatollah Zarghami in measures blocking access to the US financial system.

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Britain & Europe Analysis: A "Dad's Army" Guide to Prime Minister Cameron's Important Speech

(Cartoon: Andy Davey/The Sun)

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In British television legend, there is an iconic situation comedy, Dad’s Army, in which the actor Clive Dunn --- who passed away a few months ago --- had a series of memorable catchphrases.

In an unexpected tribute, the phrases of Dunn and his colleagues are a fitting context for British Prime Minister David Cameron, as he gives one of the most important speeches of his Premiership.

As he speaks about British’s relationship with the European Union, Cameron may keep these words in mind.

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EA Audio Analysis: Britain, Europe, & the US Warning --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

Listen to the Audio (from 23:20)

On Wednesday, the Obama Administration created front-page news in Britain when Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon said, "We want to see a strong British voice in that European Union," and warned against any referendum on the issue.

The ensuing flutter was predictable, with radio phone-ins filled with Britons denouncing the US intervention and sometimes often taking shots at "Europe".

I spoke yesterday with BBC WM about the episode, with the discussion beginning at 23:20.

Two take-away points, the second of which surprised presenter Adrian Goldberg:

1. Why did the US issue the warning? "It's the Economy, Stupid."

2. The Obama Administration probably spoke with Her Majesty's Government before Gordon made his remarks.

GOLDBERG: "So Britain colluded with the White House over this statement?"

LUCAS: "Colluded is such a harsh word. I prefer consulted."