EA Video Analysis: Introducing "The Love Triangle of Profileration" --- Iran, Syria, North Korea

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Ten years ago, it was the Axis of Evil --- Iraq, Iran, and North Korea.

Today, it is the "Nexus of Proliferation", with Iran and North Korea still featured and Syria replacing the fallen Saddam Hussein.

This 8-minute analysis explains how members of Congress and an "expert" --- step up, Dr David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security, the man who has declared dangers of the Iranian nuclear programme such as "Magnets of Doom" and "Pink Tarpaulins" --- has given us this new label for the Threat to America.

EA Audio Analysis: The G8, Syria, Iran, and North Korea --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist this morning about today's meeting of the G8, the eight leading nations trying to resolve the world's economic and political difficulties.

Listen from around the 8-minute mark on The Globalist homepage or in a pop=out window.

Topics include Syria, Iran, North Korea, and the economy as well as the general question, "Does the G8 really do anything?"

North Korea Audio Feature: What Crisis? Everything is "Ordinary" in Pyongyang

US National Public Radio reports that, despite global headlines about a possible nuclear conflict with North Korea, visitors to the Pyongyang are not seeing much out of the ordinary:

North Korea Audio Analysis: Will There Be a Nuclear War? (No.) ---- Scott Lucas with the BBC

North Korean Leader Kim Jong UnI did two interviews today, with a third scheduled tomorrow morning, with BBC outlets on North Korea's bluster about launching a nuclear attack on the US.

To the question, "Could this be nuclear war?", I offered the following:

I'm not going down into my underground bunker just yet.

I back that up by putting the statement in political, military, and North Korean domestic context.

BBC Coventry and Warwickshire: The item starts at 2:18.20. My contribution starts at 2:19.09.

BBC WM: The discussion begins at 1:06.48.

North Korea Audio Analysis: Assessing the Nuclear Test --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

I spoke with BBC WM on Tuesday afternoon, trying to get beyond the immediate reactions to assess the significance of the North Korean nuclear test.

Take-away line: "While the test is a notable political move --- primarily to establish the domestic authority of leader Kim Jong Un --- it does not represent an imminent military threat."

The discussion begins at the 48:37 mark.

EA Special: 10 Predictions for 2013 --- Assad Gone, an Angry Middle East, and Little Change on "Human Rights"

See also 2012 in Review: How Did EA's Predictions Turn Out?

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1. Syria --- The Assad Regime Will Fall It remains unclear what happens once President Assad is gone, but his regime will crumble in 2013. It may find some corner of Lattakia or Tartous to claim as a new capital for some time, but this will not last.

Assad's presence in the east has been reduced to a single airbase near Deir Ez Zor. Insurgents, led by Islamists, are also moving into Raqqa Province, and Hassakah will soon be cut off. The regime's supply lines to Aleppo are completely cut, with insurgents picking off military bases outside the city.

Eventually, Aleppo will fall. Insurgents will march south from Idlib Province, first taking Hama, then Homs, and then on to Damascus. If the Assad regime survives and is not overtaken by a surge in the capital before this, then the regime will have its back against the wall. The majority of Syria will already be in someone else's hands.

But whose hands?

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The Latest from Iran (2 September): Tehran Strikes A Defiant Pose

Nikahang Kowsar's view of the isolation of Iran and the Supreme Leader after this week's Non-Aligned summit

See also Iran Snapshot: Head of State TV Admits Mis-Translation of Egyptian President's Speech on Syria
Iran Interview: Ali Larijani on the Nuclear Issue, Syria, and Detained Opposition Leader Mousavi
The Latest from Iran (1 September): After the Summit

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1539 GMT: Currency Watch. With the currency market set to re-open after an extended holiday, the head of the Central Bank has dismissed speculation that the Iranian Rial --- now at 21930:1 vs. the US dollar --- will weaken on the open market to 30000:1.

Bahmani said instead that the Rial would reach 15000:1, its highest level since last summer.

1533 GMT: Finance Watch. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has cancelled President Ahmadinejad's right to withdraw money from National Funds without legal directives.

Larijani's step comes amid complaints that Mahmoud Bahmani, the head of the Central Bank, has not delivered a report on government withdrawals of cash from financial institutions in July.

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North Korea Music Video Special: From "Horse-Like Lady" to the Leader's Girlfriend?

The 2005 smash hit "Excellent Horse-Like Lady"

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North Korea's hot gossip starts with a mystery woman and gets better....

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To Lift the Spirits: Dancing with Matt Again (Even in North Korea)

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In 2008, just before the launch of EA WorldView, I discovered Matt Harding, a young man from Seattle, Washington, who decided to film himself dancing with people around the world. In the middle of the tragedy of the Israeli war in Gaza in January 2009, I needed an alternative to the images of destruction so I posted his first video:

For me, that video was a life-affirming moment which has lasted. Harding followed up, "Where the Hell is Matt?" with sequels, including one in Gaza. Then this week, as we covered the bloodshed in Syria, I came across his latest film, complete with this recollection from Harding about one special location where he danced....

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China Feature: Beijing Disputes Territorial Waters with Its Neighbours

Chinese television reports on South Korea's detention of China's fishermen

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One clash with a foreign neighbour might be an accident. Two might be an unfortunate coincidence. Three, and even four, starts to look like a pattern.

In the last two months, the Chinese regime has been in disputes over territorial waters with Palau, the Philippines, and both North and South Korea after Chinese fishermen were challenged by foreign navies and Coast Guards. So, is this just a case of a series of clashes and misunderstanding because of the fishing or is Beijing pursuing a policy which could raise tensions in the Pacific?

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