Israel-Palestine Special: Assessing the Move for UN Recognition of a Palestinian State

This time, Washington has to bring something more than Obama’s speech, with more flexibility for the European Union initiative, to the table. One possibility? Acknowledging Hamas behind closed doors, giving Abbas a guarantee that Ramallah will never need to recognise a “Jewish state”, and promising a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital in a year.

At the same time, a sign can be given to Prime Minister Netanyahu that he can be a peace-making hero ahead of Israeli elections. How? The release of Gilad Shalit, the detained Israel soldier, by Hamas.

And if this is not pursued? Well, get ready for the September display at the United Nations.

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Israel-Palestine Special: Assessing the Move for UN Recognition of a Palestinian State

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Israel-Gaza Analysis: Why the Talk is Now of a Cease-Fire

So now it is said that the exchange of hostilities between factions in Gaza and the State of Israel will not bring another war. After the concern of recent days that West Jerusalem might repeat the attack of 2008/9, Operation Cast Lead, suddenly the talk  from Hamas and then from Israel was of a cease-fire.

So what happened? 

The surface reading had been that an escalation of tension on the Gaza border was useful for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as this took attention away from any need for concessions in talks on the other Palestinian front --- the West Bank --- ahead of Israeli elections. Indeed, even Washington's statement that it was“deeply concerned” about the construction of another 942 housing units of Israeli settlements in the West Bank could be put aside.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Air Raids, Mortars, and a Jerusalem Bomb....What is Next?

A review of the last two weeks, before Wednesday's explosion of a bomb near a bus in Jerusalem.... 

The construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank has quadrupled since the end of the temporary freeze last autumn, say Israeli official documents.

Five members of the Fogel family are massacred in the settlement of Itamar. Although this act is condemned by the Palestinian Authority, Israeli government and media organisations consider it a terrorist attack. West Jerusalem’s responds quickly. The Ministerial committee on settlement affairs approves the construction of 500 new homes in several West Bank settlements. The Israel Defense Forces carry out mass arrests in the village of Awarta, and questioned almost all the men.

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Israel Analysis: Netanyahu Cabinet Quarrels Over Peace and Security as Settlements Expand

Speaking in Miami last week, President Obama addressed Israel’s security concerns within the context of the “new” Middle East. He said,“I'm actually confident that 10 years from now we're going to be able to look back and say that this was the dawning of an entirely new and better era.”

The statement came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to announce his “grand plan” in May, calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state with temporary borders as part of an interim peace agreement.

Netanyahu met resistance from his own Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, who said that immediate immediate action was necessary and sought clarity from the Prime Minister: ""A permanent agreement has a chance only if Israel would be willing to clearly say what would come after it....A permanent agreement has a chance only if Israel would be willing to clearly say what would come after it.”

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Israel Analysis: International Pressure is Growing to Break "Deadlock"

With the Quartet (the US, Russia, European Union and United Nations) declaring that the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is a threat to region's whole security and condemning Israel for its inaction following the end of 10-month freeze on settlement expansion in the West Bank; the circle around West Jerusalem is tightening.

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Israel-Palestine Latest: Quartet Pushes Israel as Netanyahu Pushes Economic Plans

UPDATE 1830 GMT: Britain's Defense Secretary Liam Fox has underlined the importance of such a peace between Israel and Palestine in deflecting Iran's potential nuclear power, "an existential threat". Fox said:

The United Kingdom is pushing for stronger sanctions to influence Iran, but the importance of the Middle East peace process should not be overlooked.

Progress towards a two-state solution -- a secure and universally recognized Israel alongside a viable and contiguous Palestinian state -- is important for defusing the malign political influence of Iran in the region.

After the Quartet's meeting, German Foreign minister Guido Westerwelle said:

Those who want to support moderate forces in the Middle East, those who want to support constructive forces in the Middle East, are well advised to press for progress in the Middle East peace process

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Israel Analysis: Can West Jerusalem Put Palestine Above Iran's "Existential Threat"?

1) Was departing Mossad chief Meir Dagan really pressing the Government by saying it is not the right time to focus on Iran's nuclear programmes at a time when the Palestinian issue should be the one on the table? Was he reinforcing this as a window of opportunity by saying that there is no way to envisage an Iranian nuclear weapon within the next four years?

2) Even if Netanyahu's Forum of Seven agrees to a limited number of concessions following the departure of Defense Minister Ehud Barak from the Labor Party, can Netanyahu and/or his coalition partners give up the Iran card? Can they do so at a time when the world "has not learnt its lesson" from the Holocaust and "there is a great island of instability" in the region, which can even put the peace made with Cairo in jeopardy?

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