Iran Snap Analysis: Isolating Ahmadinejad

Even the rumour smacked of disinformation and/or the desparation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's camp. Tehran Emrooz --- linked to the President's conservative rival, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf --- was claiming that Ahmadinejad would seek to become Mayor, a post he held from 2003 to 2005, when his Presidential term ended in 2013. The post would allow Ahmadinejad to hold a portion of the power that he craves, while he and his allies tried to put a "close friend" into the Presidency.

Probably a story which is more smoke than substance, but that smoke is still significant. So was Ahmadinejad's supposed defiance on Thursday as he vigorously defended the second phase of his subsidy cuts plans, still to be implemented five months after officials said it was imminent, and declared that his critics were covering up their failures as they slandered him.

That defiance tipped off weakness, rather than strength. The President is a fighter, of course, but here he was fighting to save the centrepiece of his economic table, rocking amidst both political fighting and the inflation surrounding the first stage of the subsidy cuts.

Equally significant is that Ahmadinejad, as he is battling in this area, is saying little or nothing on another. Instrumental in the effort to get nuclear talks in 2009 and to keep the prospect alive in 2010-2011, the President is silent in 2012. Given his nature, I doubt that is Ahmadinejad's choice --- he has been cut out of the nuclear issue.

Some will say that Ahmadinejad is "safe" because of the damaging information that he holds --- and has threatened to reveal --- on other members of the Islamic Republic's elite. That could well be true. It looks, for example, as that option of "I'll Take You Down with Me" has saved his advisors such as Saeed Mortazavi and Mohammad Sharif Malekzadeh from prosecution.

But "safe" is not the same as dominant or even influential. The President is being squeezed on a daily basis. Next year, he could be yesterday's man. The more interesting question, however, is whether he already is.

The Latest from Iran (10 May): Supreme Leader Comments on Detained Mousavi and Karroubi

2020 GMT: Sanctions Watch. For weeks, we have questioned public proclamation of India defying sanctions and increasing oil shipments from Iran, arguing that private discussions were weaning Delhi off Tehran's crude with assurances of alternative supplies.

Confirmation comes today in the report that India's oil imports from Tehran fell about 34% in April compared with March.

Reflecting the Government-to-Government talks between Washington and Delhi, including a visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this week, State-run buyers are at the forefront of reductions, leaving privately-owned Essar the biggest Indian client of Iran.

India's total oil imports from Iran in April fell to about 269,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 409,000 bpd in March and from about 449,000 bpd in April 2011.

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Turkey Live Coverage (10 May): Fronts At Home and Abroad

1720 GMT: Although still not confirmed by the Foreign Ministry, the Turkish daily Hürriyet Daily News says that two Turkish journalists held in Syria are going to be freed this week. An Iranian official was quoted as saying that "Iran did its best to contact the Syrian groups and persuade them to release those innocent people."

1645 GMT: At a ceremony held to mark the 144th anniversary of the establishment of the Council of State, President Hüseyin Karakullukçu voiced support for a switch to a presidential system, saying his court considers the system to be “democratic” for Turkey's standard. 

1600 During a press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Selçuk Ünal says the possibility of invoking the right to military protection of Turkish borders against threats from Syria under Article 5 of the NATO charter is still on Turkey's agenda.

1540 GMT: Some Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) members reportedly engaged in harassing fire against Turkish soldiers in the Cukurca district of Hakkari province. No injuries reported. 

1420 GMT: Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki criticized Turkey for its earlier remarks. After Ankara's support for fugitive Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, Maliki said:

We do not want to antagonise Turkey, or Iran, or America, or Saudi Arabia, or any other country, but what happened and the remarks issued by Turkey do not show mutual respect.

Meanwhile, deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said that they are showing Turkish hospitability to Hashemi.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "A Divided and Dangerous City"

State TV footage of scene of this morning's double explosion in Syrian capital Damascus (see 0655 GMT)

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2130 GMT: Palestine. An official with Palestinian prisoners' rights group Addameer has said that Israel's prison service has offered to ease restrictions on Palestinian prisoners in a bid to end a mass hunger strike.

About 1,600 Palestinian prisoners are fasting to protest administrative detention, under which Israel can hold people indefinitely without charge. They are also challenging solitary confinement, detention without charge and restrictions on family visits, education, and other privileges.

Two of those protesting, Bilal Diab and Thaer Halahla, are on th 72nd day of hunger strikes.

The Addameer official said, after a meeting on Wednesday night in Nafha Prison between the Prison Service and leaders of the hunger strike, "There might be a positive response in the next few days." She said the Prison Service "agreed to allow visits for families from Gaza" and to revoke a range of restrictions on prisoners, including a ban on education and other privileges. She added that an agreement on moving prisoners out of solitary confinement was also on the table.

Prison Service spokeswoman Sivan Weizman confirmed the Nafha meeting, saying it was part of an ongoing process of consultations between detainees and a committee examining prison conditions.

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Iraq Feature: Prime Minister Maliki Provokes the Kurds (Van Wilgenburg)

Photo: AFPRecently I mentioned the possibility that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would try to unsettle current good relations between his rivals in the Iraqiyya faction and the Iraqi Kurds, break down Iraqiyya’s base of support in Kirkuk.

Maliki’s recent decision to hold a Cabinet meeting in the city bore out the prediction, albeit not through an appeal to the Kurds. Instead, he played the Iraqi nationalist card, especially against Massoud Barzani, Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader and President of the Kurdistan Regional Government.

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US Politics Feature: What A Conservative Surge in the 2012 Elections for Congress Could Mean

This November, America goes to the ballot box to elect not only the President but also the Congress that will either implement or obstruc, the White House programme. The House of Representatives is likely to remain in the control of Republicans, but the Senate --- where Democrats currently enjoy a slight majority, aided by the support of the chamber's two Independents --- is a less predictable story. Conservative Republicans believe they have the opportunity to overturn the Democrats' slender advantage, and, just as importantly, return new Senators who will align with the Tea Party Caucus.

That strategy took on the shape of the possible on Tuesday in Indiana when Richard Mourdock, a conservative heavily backed by pro-market and Tea Party groups from outside the state, defeated six-term Senator Dick Lugar in the GOP primary.

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Bahrain Live Coverage: "Almost Broken, But Not Entirely So"

2145 GMT: A Bahraini defense lawyer says the court hearing of 20 medics, sentenced last year to prison terms of between five and 15 years by a military tribunal, ended in an adjournment for a month.

1955 GMT: Catching up after an academic day away....

After talks in Washington with Crown Prince Salman, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has urged Bahrain to take further steps to address human rights issues.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the pair discussed Manama's efforts to implement the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry: "Clinton noted the steps already taken to implement the recommendations, but expressed that much work remains to fully address ongoing human rights issues, including individual cases. She encouraged the Bahraini government to champion a clear process -- in both word and action -- that leads to meaningful institutional and political reforms that take into account the interests and aspirations of all Bahrainis."

Nuland added, "Clinton affirmed the long-standing commitment of the United States to a strong partnership with both the people and the government of Bahrain."

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Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From Forbidden Books to a Shrinking Middle Class (Arseh Sevom)

Official Book Fair and Unofficial Books

The annual International Book Fair of Tehran opened on 1 May and will continue to the 11^th, even as the list of forbidden books grows. Authorities collect “illegal copies", sometimes turning them into paper paste (recounted in our review of 23 April). Meanwhile, a shadow book fair has sprung up featuring the forbidden texts.

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Turkey Live Coverage (9 May): Kurds, Syria, Iraq, and the EU

1800 GMT: The Humanitarian Aid Association (İHH) says Iranian officials helped in determining the whereabouts of the two missing Turkish journalists in Syria.

1645 GMT: Speaking to reporters after the three-hour meeting, Parliament Speaker Cemil Çiçek said the drafting process would commence on Thursday. Political parties will create a catalogue of basic rights and freedoms on Thursday. He said: “The first step of this process is [to determine] basic rights and freedoms."

1625 GMT: In its the U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership report, the Independent Task Force of Council on Foreign Relations says that "Turkey may not yet have the status of one of Washington's traditional European allies but there is good strategic reason for the bilateral relationship to grow and mature into a mutually beneficial partnership that can manage a complex set of security, economic, humanitarian, and environmental problems." 

1600 GMT: Diyarbakir Dicle University's Rector Aysegul Jale Sarac complained about the insufficient number of academic personnel in the region and showed the 'label of terrorism' for professors' not choosing the eastern part of the country. 

1545 GMT: In response to speculations whether Tariq al-Hashemi will be returned to Iraq, deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said that they would not return someone they had given support to. 

1420 GMT: A specialist corporal was killed when he stepped on a land mine in a rural area of the province of Tunceli. An air-backed operation began immediately. 

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Iran-Afghanistan Opinion: Tehran's Mistaken Posturing Over the US-Afghan Pact

President Karzai & the Supreme LeaderThere's a saying in Dari, the Persian dialect spoken in Afghanistan, "Ajala kaare shaitan ast (Haste is Satan's work)". It appears, however, the Iranian regime has not heard it: the ink on the US-Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement was hardly dry when Tehran launched a verbal attack.

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ramin Mehmanparast expressed concern that the Pact may destabilise the region and called on the US to withdraw from Afghanistan immediately. Today, news broke that Iran's Ambassador in Kabul had met the head of the Afghan Senate, Fazel Hadi Muslimyar, and other legislators, asking them not to approve the Pact. The ambassador, Abdul Fazl Zuhrawand reportedly called the agreement a threat to the interests of other countries in the region, such as Russia, China, and India, as well as Iran. 

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