Syria Opinion: "There Are Many Others Who Await Homs' Fate"

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The images from Homs are intense, the stories gripping, and the scale and veracity of the violence there is disturbing. But remember when seeing these images and hearing these stories that Homs is just one city, and there are many others that resemble what Homs looked like only two months ago. There are many other areas that are awaiting Homs' fate.

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The Latest from Iran (1 March): The Issue Is Legitimacy

See also Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
The Latest from Iran (29 February): Playing the Numbers Game

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Worker sweeps up campaign flyers, 25 February 1915 GMT: The "Engineers" in Syria. Seven Iranian engineers and technicians, abducted in Syria in December, have not been freed.

Last month, Iranian media reported that the men had been released, but Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister has said that they are still in the country, albeit in "perfect health".

The Free Syrian Army claims that five of the men are actually military snipers who were in Syria to assist President Assad's forces.

1845 GMT: Assurance of the Day. An Iranian official announces, “About 1,300 domestic and 350 foreign reporters working for 174 international media will provide coverage for the ninth election of the Majlis on Friday."

Which only leaves the question: how exactly will they be allowed to "provide coverage"?

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Bahrain Propaganda 101: What's the Latest from Regime's PR Firm Qorvis (Whitaker)

February has been a busy month for Qorvis, the American public relations firm hired at $480,000 a year to spruce up Bahrain's tarnished image.

For starters, there was the usual round of "good news" press releases to be churned out highlighting the kingdom's tolerance, its culture, its charitable work and, of course, its economic progress:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Battle of Baba Amr

2127 GMT: A new Tweet by the activist "Sami" who is inside Homs:

Electricty is back to many of #Homs 's districts after 3 days of its cut off #BabaAmr & #Inshaat are still in darkness.#Syria

— Samsom homs (@Samsomhoms) March 1, 2012

Earlier, Sami spoke to NPR's Andy Carvin, and said that electricity, and water, was cut for much of the city.

2111 GMT: Reuters, citing several sources, says that wounded French journalist Edith Bouvier has arrived in Lebanon. French President Sarkozy also told Reuters that he spoke to Bouvier, and she will be flown back on a government plane.

Sarkozy sparked a false rumor earlier this week that Bouvier was free, but this seems like a legitimate report.

2103 GMT: An explosive allegation from a major opposition group in Syria tonight:

Qunaitara: Jabatha: Regime forces stormed the town which lies on Israel's border with Syria. They are not permitted to enter this specific area without an Israeli permission or without the observation of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) . The regime's forces killed 7 citizens during their operation, among them 3 brothers of the Marweed family and one woman with her daughter, as well as a man from the Hariri family.

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Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?

A day before Iranians vote in Parliamentary elections, who's winning?

We do not know. And we will not know for some time to come. The messy truth beyond the easy narrative of Supreme Leader v. President Ahmadinejad is that the lists of candidates do not work that way, and the vote itself will not yield a "dominant" faction.

In the meantime, there is another, far different measure of "winner" and "loser". Almost all the factions and, more importantly, the Supreme Leader have put their chips on a high turnout in the vote. If that does not materialise, then all will suffer a blow to legitimacy.

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Syria Feature: War is Good...For Lebanon's Arms Dealers (Constantine)

Free Syrian Army in Idlib ProvinceHis phone rings almost non-stop, and he can barely keep up with the demand for his goods.

The war next door in Syria has been good for the Lebanese arms dealer, and the clamour from his phone promises it is going to get even better.

As the fighting in Syria escalates and pressure grows on the international community to provide the means for Syrians to repel the onslaught by government forces, his rocket-propelled grenades and AK-47 assault rifles become more precious commodities by the day.

Asked where the weapons are bound, Abu Jihad, who asked that his real name not be used, placed his hands over his eyes in a display of mock ignorance.

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The Latest from Iran (29 February): Playing the Numbers Game

Nikahang Kowsar "Defrosting the Elections" --- His journalist to the Supreme Leader, "Haji, be careful that your beard doesn't get burned!"

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1829 GMT: All the President's Men. The one-year prison sentence of Ali Akbar Javanfekr, President Ahmadienjad’s media advisor, was confirmed today by an appellate court.

Javanfekr, who is also editor of Iran newspaper, was charged with “insulting the Supreme Leader” because of comments on his blog. He was also given a five-year ban from political activity.

1818 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Analyst Robin Mills notes the story, mentioned in Tuesday's Live Coverage, that Iran will accept gold rather than foreign currency with other countries because of sanctions. He adds, "Also willing to be paid in rice, used socks, etc."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Remembering All the Dead

A montage of more than 70 people who have died in violence in Bahrain since the start of mass protests in February 2011

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2127 GMT: A member of the Syrian National Council, Mulham al Jundi reports on the situation in Baba Amr, Homs:

In a phone call with Abu Haneen from the heart of Baba Amr, he informed us of the following:

Baba Amr has faced multiple attempts of being stormed by the Syrian National Army. Activists worked hard to save the neighborhood and protect the civilians. In the meanwhile, Baba Amr was still being shelled. Clashes continued until the evening. The Free Syrian Army succeeded in affecting loss in the Syrian National Army, both people & supplies. Some of the leaders of the Farooq Division left the site of the clashes to securely transport women and children to safer regions. Activists are still defending the neighborhood against the army that was essentially defeated at its attempts. The activists have seized control of Baba Amr and the Assad army is positioned at the outskirts of the region.

While we can't verify the specific details of the report, there are two key points that continue to be repeated by all the trusted sources EA has made contact with - the FSA has been clashing with Assad soldiers, especially in the northeast of Baba Amr, and the troops have not fully occupied the neighborhood...

Yet. The third detail that is in nearly every report - Assad's military is capable of taking Baba Amr. It is possible that they are holding out to lessen the media attention, or because they want to avoid heavy losses, but the entire city is surrounded by extremely large amounts of pro-Assad military forces, and tonight they are closer to Baba Arm than they have been since the siege started.

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Iran Snapshot: When Protester Mina Met Basij Mohammad (Hafezi/Hosseinian)

Iranian Protesters Raise Flowers, 30 July 2009Mina and Mohammad stood on opposite sides of the political barricades when protests against Iran's rulers erupted into mass street violence; she, a student demanding democratic reform, he a member of the hard-line Basij militia that helped crush the greatest challenge ever to the Islamic Republic.

Now the two, both 27, are brought together for the first time in a small sitting room in central Tehran. Two years have passed. Iran faces painful trade sanctions over its nuclear program, prices soar, the opposition is silenced and parliamentary polls loom for Mina as an empty promise of democracy.

They greet each other warily, these representatives of two estranged sides of Iran, the victor, perhaps, and the vanquished. Both smile courteously, refusing offers of tea to ease the awkwardness.

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Iran Special: The Week in Civil Society, from Arresting Mountain Climbers to Strangling the Internet (Arseh Sevom)

Police display confiscated satellite dishes

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Arseh Sevom, the non-government organisation promoting civil society in Iran, has started a weekly review of developments in the country --- this inaugural article covers 19-25 February. Read the full entry or jump to an individual item:

Hunger Strikes and Heresy: Prisoners of Conscience in Danger
Opposition Calls for Voters to Stay Home
The Call for Free and Fair Elections
Jammin’ and Jammin’ and Jammin’… Jam No More
Coming to Your TV: Iran’s Outrageous Confession Videos
Strangling the Internet
More Pressure on the Baha’i
Sixty Percent of Workers Under the Poverty Line
More Limitations on Who Can Stand for Office: If Brazil’s former president Lula da Silva were Iranian he Wouldn’t be Allowed to Run
Publishers Come Under Scrutiny: “Censorship reflects a society’s lack of confidence in itself”

Introduction

How can we not start with a great big congratulations to Asghar Farhadi, the director of A Separation, for his historic Oscar win? Congratulations!

Arseh Sevom also notes that Sunday, February 26, marked Lawyer’s Day in Iran. With dozens arrested, persecuted, and imprisoned for their work defending the rights of others, being a lawyer in Iran can be hazardous. Arseh Sevom salutes those lawyers who have so bravely stood up for the rights of others. (Details of the harassment of lawyers can be found here.)

In the lead up to parliamentary elections in Iran, there is increased pressure on civil society. Mountain climbers have been arrested in Sanandaj, publishers are being scrutinized, and prisoners of conscience challenge their detention.

With less than a week left before the elections, the mood domestically and internationally is becoming more hawkish and militaristic. On election day, March 2nd, 85,000 members of the Basij militia will be dispatched to the streets. This is all being played out amidst worldwide speculations of an imminent attack on Iran.

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