Bahrain Propaganda 101: Bringing the "Right" Youth Delegation to Washington

Ebtisam Khalifa Bahar of Bahrain's Information Affairs Authority --- ostensibly in an "independent" youth delegation, organised by American PR firm Qorvis and sent to Washingon --- challenges activist Maryam Al-Khawaja

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Earlier this month, a group of three young Bahrainis arrived in Washington to talk about reform in the small Persian Gulf nation, which has been rocked by Arab Spring protests for the last year. The delegation, including an NGO worker and a tech entrepreneur, both Western-educated, represented "the leading voice for change and reform" in Bahrain, as an email message from one of the group's representatives put it.

But these weren't leaders of the protest movement that has challenged the country's ruling Sunni monarchy. They were members of a "youth delegation" put together by a top American public relations firm, Qorvis, which has been working with Bahrain to shore up the country's image in the United States.

The youth delegation's modestly pro-reform message was mixed with sharp criticism of the opposition in Bahrain and complaints about negative media coverage in the U.S.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?

A year ago, at the height of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad --- marked by the fight to control the Ministry of Intelligence, and culminating in the President's defeat and an 11-day boycott of his duties --- we assessed that Ahmadinejad was now a "lame-duck" occupant of his office. He would not be removed, as this was cause instability and more in-fighting over the issue of who would replace him, but he would be contained and constricted by his rivals and the Supreme Leader's office.

And so it goes. The President will serve out the last year of his term, with more pressure put on those around him, such as Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. But he is unlikely to do more than put out his rhetoric and proclaim the myth of his legacy.

The bigger question, for example, is whether the Supreme Leader's office has arranged a Parliamentary outcome that guarantees it will have no problems with the Parliament as well as the President.

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The Latest from Iran (3 March): After the Vote

Khatami and Neda: Former President Mohammad Khatami is criticised for his "betrayal" in voting in Friday's elections

See also Iran Special Analysis: The "Invented" Election
Iran Opinion: Elections, Power, and Political War in Tehran

The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections

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2225 GMT: Khatami Watch. Reformist journalist Hussain Nooraninejad, a close friend of former President Mohammad Khatami, has written on his Facebook page:

Today, I spent an hour with Khatami and asked him about his voting. The first thing Khatami said in reply was, "he decision was very hard. I know I have upset a lot of friends and youth, but I had received a number of worrying news in the last two days about extremists having some plans, and I hope I have ruined their plan by my vote."

Khatami has said that on his vote paper, he has written “Islamic Republic”.

Nooraninejad said Khatami will have a "direct dialogue" with people in the near-future to "clear up some of the misunderstanding".

Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi has said, "I assure you that Khatami has not voted to make the regime happy because the regime will not do any good to him....The decision of Khatami to vote is one of his wisest decisions. [The reason] will be clear in the near future."

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Iran Special Analysis: The "Invented" Election

To modify Voltaire's famous statement about God, "if the 60% turnout did not exist, it would have to be invented".  Beyond the battles within the establishment that will soon re-emerge --- reduced to "Supreme Leader v. Ahmadinejad", but going far beyond this amongst the conservative and principlist factions and politicians --- the immediate demand on the regime was to establish its legitimacy.

The truth is that we will never know exactly how many Iranians --- amidst economic problems, worries over corruption and mismanagement, political in-fighting, restrictions on dissent and communications, imprisonments and harassments --- decided that voting might make a difference. 

What we do know is that Iranian authorities went to great lengths to set up and control the show.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Defiance

An insurgent fires at a regime tank in Idlib Province in the northwest

See also Syria Video Special: Interview of Paul Conroy, Survivor of Baba Amr
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Assad Will Have to Kill Us All"

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2200 GMT: After clashes in Sitra in Bahrain today, a police SUV lost control and hit a wall, then burned. The Ministry of Interior reported that four policemen were injured.

An EA correspondent reports, "Sitra is now blocked by police am trying to find away in. Expectations of raids on houses & arrests on the island".

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Iran Opinion: Elections, Power, and Political War in Tehran

This is not just politics. It is political war between Khamenei seeking to become an über-dictator and Ahmadinejad trying to steal a bit of that authority. And thus the paradox: whatever the state of power in that contest, the Government and regime will diminish in power. There will be fractures and divisions, as those who genuinely give support, rather than offer it through coercion or the glimpse of base gain, fall away.

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Syria Video Special: Interview of Paul Conroy, Survivor of Baba Amr

Sky News interviews The Sunday Times photographer Paul Conroy, injured in the attack in Baba Amr, Homs, that killed American journalist Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik.

See Also Syria Opinion: "There Are Many Others Who Await Homs' Fate"
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Assad Will Have to Kill Us All"

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The Guardian partially transcribes the interview:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Assad Will Have to Kill Us All"

2134 GMT: Amazing videos of night protests in Syria - the first, a VERY large protest in Soran, Hama:

Next, the LCCS shares this video from the Hamadiyah district of Hama:

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The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections

Maya Neyestani on today's "historic" election

See also Iran Special: A Beginner's Guide to Today's Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
The Latest from Iran (1 March): The Issue Is Legitimacy

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2055 GMT: ANd now a good-news story from the elections....

The 100-year-old man in Hamedan voted and died (see 1215 GMT), and the 95-year-old man in Damavand said, ""God, please accept this vote from me" and passed away (see 1645), but the 117-year-old man in Gonbad-e Qabus cast his ballot and lived.

2030 GMT: Well, I now have first-hand experience of how Iranian media handle news and analysis about this election.

Fars has not only noted my interview with BBC Persian; they are presenting it as if I had spoken to them. The headline is a selective extract, reflecting Fars' emphasis, of my comments, "The Western Leaders Don't Have a Clear Understanding of the Iranian Elections".

To be fair, Fars does fairly repeat some of my remarks, such as this election is too complex to be "Conservatives v. Clergy" and "The election is less about foreign policy than it is about Iran's internal affairs, economics, political accountability, and even topics such as judicial and legal rights."

What is interesting is what is left out or abbreviated. Fars' "interview" forgets to include my remarks that this election --- crucially --- is about the legitimacy of not only the Government but also the regime. And while the site does accurately mention my comment, "Reformists had no chance in this election of achieving some kind of political power", it indicates this was the main reason for their boycott of the vote --- conveniently omitting the rest of my analysis that the strategy was to raise question marks about the regime: "The message, following the 2009 Presidential election protests ie not just "Where is my vote?" but "Where is my government's responsibility?"

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Iran Special: A Beginner's Guide to Today's Parliamentary Elections

The regime's Get Out the Vote video, calling for a high turnout as a "hard slap" to Iran's enemies

See also The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?

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THE VOTE

There are 290 seats in the Iranian Majlis, with members serving four-year terms. The chamber is officially led by a speaker. 

There are no political parties as such; instead, blocs or factions can emerge. The Parliament is dominated by "conservatives" and "principlists", a term usually applied to the political wave since the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2005.

"Reformists", who were prominent in the legislature during the Presidency of Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), have been squeezed into a weak minority group of about 50-60 representatives. That number is likely to fall sharply in the next Majlis.

THE PROCESS

In today's first round, voters will choose names from dozens of lists of candidates. Allocated seats range from 30 for Tehran to one for Iran's smallest towns and villages, so a voter in the capital can write up to 30 names whereas the process elsewhere is far simpler.

Any candidate who receives more than 50% of the vote in his/her district is elected. Those who receive less than 50% but above a minimum standard will be on the ballot for a second round of voting in about two weeks.

THE MAJOR LISTS

This should be prefaced with the note that the lists are not as important today as the individuals who may or may not emerge from them.

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