Our analysis at EA is that the currency crisis in Iran is driven by structural problems, mismanagement, mis-timed subsidy cuts and interest rate policies, and inflationary pressures. We do not see a plan by the Ahmadinejad Government, let alone a conspiracy, for the sudden fall of the Iranian rial.
That is not to say, however, that elements within the regime will give up a profit from the events. Those speculating against the rial --- has allegedly included officials in the Revolutionary Guards, in the Ahmadinejad camp, and in other areas of the Government --- have made a handsome sum by exploiting the gap between the "official" and "open-market" rates. And if economic crisis offers political advantage, should that be passed up?
"A Correspondent" for Tehran Bureau, while paying lip service to "fundamental structural problems" such as an excess of cash in the Iranian system, goes much farther. He/she sees a plot by the President and his inner circle to solve an immediate budgetary issue --- even if there are higher costs down the road --- while seeking a winning position in March's Parliamentary elections.
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Friday, January 6, 2012 at 7:05
Bahrain Protester and Police, 4 January 2011In a little over a week, we will arrive at the first anniversaries of momentous developments, beginning with the fall of the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia. But if the Syrian and Bahraini activists have anything to say about it, new history will be made. 2011 was the year of the protester, and 2012 is already starting out with a bang.
