US Politics Feature: The Election Road Starts in Iowa

The first primary in the 2012 Presidential campaign will be held next Tuesday in New Hampshire. Before that, however, we get today's caucuses --- effectively, town meetings --- in Iowa for activists, primarily on the Republican side, to state their preference for the nominee for November's election.  Republican presidential hopefuls have criss-crossed the state for months, spending millions of dollars and time on states only have 11 of the 538 electoral votes that will determine who is the next President.

So why should we care beyond the razzmatazz of an opening contest?

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Iran Snap Analysis: Finding a Scapegoat in the Currency Crisis

Head of Central Bank BahmaniTucked in amongst Press TV's assurances of Iran's military and economic strength --- "Iran successfully test-fires Nour missile"; "Israel can cease to exist if Iran attacked" --- is a brief but telling story, "CBI hibernates as Iran rial slides":

Despite a steep rise of the US dollar's parity against Iran's national currency in the unofficial market, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has yet to announce a clear policy to assuage the foreign exchange market.

As the business day started in Tehran on Monday, every dollar was traded for IRR16,400, which rapidly rose to IRR 17,000 by early afternoon. 

Meanwhile, the CBI has announced the official exchange rate of the US dollar as being IRR 11,180 on its official website. 

The State news agency IRNA is still not breathing a word about the currency crisis --- instead, its lead story is "California's massive protests against capitalism" --- so what explains the sudden admission by Press TV?

The clue may lie in the headline. If the crisis cannot be hidden, given that other Iranian newspapers as well as international media are now on top of the developments, then a culprit has to be prepared. That won't be the Supreme Leader, of course, and President Ahmadinejad seems to be exempt. Even the Ministry of Economy, Shamseddin Hosseini, who has been under pressure in the Parliament, is not mentioned.

Instead, it is the Central Bank and its head, Mahmoud Bahmani, who can take the blame. Even though Bahmani has been far from inactive --- it was his intervention, through a statement to a Parliamentary election, that brought a short-lived halt to the rial's fall two weeks ago --- he and his staff can be accused of "hibernation". They are dispensable.

Of course, Bahmani's eventual removal will not solve any of the big issues about the currency and the economy, but the hope is that it will buy some time for a solution to suddenly appear. If it does not, then the politics get really interesting: when the scapegoat is gone, who is next? 

Africa Feature: Coke Adds Repression? Coca-Cola and the Regime in Swaziland

Corporate behemoth Coca-Cola is no stranger to suggestions that its international empire is responsible for social and environmental ills. Now the company stands accused of propping up the harsh dictatorship in Swaziland.

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Bahrain Feature: The Sustained Strength of the February 14th Movement (Jones/Shehabi)

Writing for Foreign Policy, Toby Jones and Ala'a Shehabi outline the methods and the achievements of the February 14th movement in Bahrain. In a week where the escalating repression of protests saw the death of a 16-year old boy, Sayed Hashim, at the hands of the security forces, Jones and Shehabi are perhaps too light in their critique of violence sanctioned by the government. Similarly, the authors possibly invest too much faith in the potential of the regime to reform, given its steadfast refusal across 2011 to countenance any real structural changes.

That aside, the article gives a vital depiction of a opposition movement which has retained --- indeed, developed --- strength and solidarity across 11 often unforgiving months. Significant, too, is the article's appearance in Foreign Policy, a central forum for the opinion makers in Washington. Indeed, it is enough to make one wonder whether Saqer Al Khalifa, the media attaché to Bahrain's Embassy in the US, who worked so tirelessly last year to spread the Kingdom's message, is falling out of favour in 2012....

Bahrain's revolutionaries
Toby Jones and Ala'a Shehabi, Foreign Policy

Bahrain's February 14th movement has become a symbol of resistance and fortitude...and the most powerful political force in Bahrain today. This confederation of loosely organized networks, named after the date of the beginning of Bahrain's revolution, is faceless, secretive, and anonymous. Its tens of thousands of supporters have abandoned the failed leadership of the country's better established, but listless, political opposition. They have suffered the most and have weathered the worst that the regime has so far meted out.

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Iran Audio Feature: Scott Lucas with the BBC "The Economy is More Important than the Missile Tests"

I enjoyed doing this interview with BBC Radio Wales. Initially, they wanted to chat about Iran's declaration of missile tests during its 10-day military exercises. However, they were interested in my contention that this was, first and foremost, propaganda to divert the Iranian people from the serious economic issues inside the country. 

What followed was a discussion moving between the situation facing the regime and the realities of the military posturing, including the point that Iran is unlikely to make an actual move such as closing the Straits of Hormuz.

The item begins at 13:28.

Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Noticing the Violence

2311 GMT: An activist with extensive contacts in Damascus has given EA these videos, reportedly showing protests "in Shahbandar square in the heart of Damascus just a few meters from Sabaa Bahrat square," approximately here. There are, according to the activist, only 500 meters between the squares.

Protests in the center of Damascus are always significant, and this appears to be a significant protest, in a significant area.

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The Latest from Iran (2 January): The Currency is Falling

See also Iran Audio Feature: Scott Lucas with the BBC "The Economy is More Important than the Missile Tests"
Iran Feature: Stumbling and Stalemate over Sanctions
The Latest from Iran (1 January): Let the Campaigning (and In-Fighting) Begin....

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Cartoon: Nikahang Kowsar2045 GMT: Currency Watch. Prominent conservative Habiballah Asgaroladi has warned that Iranian industry "cannot continue to exist" with the rial at today's level above 17000:1 vs. the US dollar.

2040 GMT: Reformist Watch. Rasoul Montajabnia, the deputy head of the Etemade Melli Party, has declared that damaging former Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami will damage the system and Revolution.

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The Real Net Effect: Can Social Media Make A Difference in Yemen? (Alwazir)

Yemeni Activist Tawakkul KarmanSocial media is not a silent witness, nor is the cause of the mass people’s movement. Twitter and Facebook do not cause revolutions, people do. These people, fueled by years of injustice and wide grievances, are the true agents of change.

The power of these revolutions lies in the people’s strength to collaborate together. While the bulk of mobilization efforts in Yemen happen through word of mouth, radio, brochures and SMS services; sites such as Facebook helped people meet each other with one click, without having to travel great distances between cities.

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Protest in China: Just a Flutter or Something Far More? (Minxin Pei)

Protest in Wukan in DecemberThe outbreak of spontaneous mass protest against corruption and abuse of power in China is showing no signs of abating.  In the latest instance, which received sustained Western press coverage, thousands of villagers in Wukan, a farming community in Guangdong Province, “occupied” their village for nearly two weeks before successfully extracting important concessions from the provincial government, which had to dispatch a deputy party secretary to negotiate with the villagers.

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Iran Feature: Stumbling and Stalemate over Sanctions (Mills)b

Nikahang Kowsar on the Supreme Leader, President Obama, and US-led Sanctions

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As the country that gave the world chess, it is only appropriate that Iran's current sanctions standoff with the United States resembles a game between two inept players. Tehran repeatedly makes bad moves; Washington plays better but has no path to checkmate.

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