The Latest from Iran (22 December): Tangoing Towards the Elections

Nikahang Kowsar on Ahmadinejad and the "dollar snake" of the currency crisis

See also Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader is Looking for A Few Good Reformists
Iran Snap Analysis: The Currency Falls --- What Does It Mean?
The Latest from Iran (21 December): It's The Economy, Mahmoud

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1831 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. The President might have declared this week that the Iranian economy is one of prosperity and growth, which all countries wish to emulate, but that does not mean that he is not on the lookout for some sacrifices. In a speech in east Tehran, he asked wealthy citizens to renounce their support payments for subsidy cuts. Meanwhile, he promised that the Government would ensure each family had a car.

Ahmadinejad did not say whether his request for deferred support payments is connected to reports that the Government is running a large deficit in the subsidy cuts programme.

1822 GMT: CyberWatch. IUS News, a website of hard-line Iranian students, reportedly knocked off-line earlier today, is unavailable.

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Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader is Looking for A Few Good Reformists

"Politics make for strange bedfellows", I believe they say, and --- if only until President Ahmadinejad's entourage is evicted --- it appears the Supreme Leader is looking for a sleep-over with the reformists, even those who used to be part of the "sedition current".

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Syria, Bahrain, Egypt (& Beyond) LiveBlog: Protest Resurgent

2240 GMT: Video surfaces from Bahrain of what appears to show riot police walking down a street and throwing a molotov cocktail, or similar device, towards a building, possibly in a residential area. A fire ensues.

2150 GMT: This picture from Abusaiba village and the following video from Jid Hafs reveal the scale of tear being used against domestic populations at night:

2130 GMT: Josh Sharyar has spoken to people in Bahrain who can barely breathe inside their own homes. One contact's father won't stop coughing, and his son reports that he believes he might die tonight.

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Bahrain Feature: Protests and Clashes Across the Kingdom Tonight

Police attack demonstrators in Sitra tonight

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More protests were reported from Bahrain today, mainly concentrated in several villages around the capital Manama and in Sitra, to the southeast. In almost all cases, protesters were suppressed by security forces.   

Sitra: 

In Sitra, several hundred protesters gathered tonight to demand the freedom of detained protesters and to call for the downfall of King Hamad bin Isa AlKhalifa. The protest, with the significant participation of women, carried banners and Bahraini flags. Eyewitnesses from the scene reported that protesters were chanting, "Peaceful, Peaceful" and "We want freedom".

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Syria, Egypt, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: The Women March

A women's march in Yemen on Tuesday

See also Bahrain Feature: Protests and Clashes Across the Kingdom Tonight
Middle East/North Africa Special: Policing the Female Body...and the Women Who Resist
Tuesday's Syria, Egypt, Bahrain (and Beyond): Uncertainty of Death, Certainty of Conflict

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2025 GMT: Students from Ain Shams University in Cairo marched today to the Ministry of Defence. Click the image for a full gallery.

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The Latest from Iran (21 December): It's The Economy, Mahmoud

See also Iran Snap Analysis: The Currency Falls --- What Does It Mean?
The Latest from Iran (20 December): The Strains Within

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1705 GMT: Oil Watch. A bit of good news for Tehran amidst the economic pressure on the regime, including the possibility of a European Union ban on supplies of oil from Iran....

Turkey's biggest crude oil importer Tupras has renewed its annual deal to buy crude oil from Iran for 2012, at almost the same volumes as this year, according to industry sources.

China's top refiner Sinopec Corp said that buy less than half the crude it normally imports from Iran in January.

1655 GMT: Najmeh Bozorgmehr of The Financial Times offers valuable interpretation of the currency crisis:

The managed float mechanism has collapsed for much of this year. The central bank’s adoption of a multiple-rate system has also failed to bring back stability to the market and to foil the impact of international sanctions aimed at Tehran’s nuclear programme. Sanctions have caused the cost of financial transactions to increase, by forcing them to go through numerous back channels, and have hit foreign currency markets by reducing the supply of cash.

But there are also domestic dynamics at play. While the market remains anxious about the possibility of a European Union oil embargo and the US imposing sanctions on the central bank, local media have accused the government of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, president, of engineering a deliberate devaluation to boost the rial value of its oil income in the final months of the fiscal year to March.

Economists and parliamentarians have predicted this year’s budget deficit could be as high as $30bn, or 7 per cent of the country’s GDP.

The government is due to present its budget bill to parliament soon and some analysts believe the government is allowing the rial to weaken to reset the official exchange rate to the dollar in the budget, which has traditionally sat around the 10,000 mark.

But Iran’s minister of economy and finance, Shamsoddin Hosseini, on Wednesday denied any such intention. “The government has had no, [absolutely] no deliberate plan to strengthen the dollar rate,” he said, and promised to announce “a plan to manage the market” soon.

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Iran Snap Analysis: The Currency Falls --- What Does It Mean?

If those at the highest levels of the establishment are feeling the pressure, then it might be assumed that those lower down --- with less power and fewer resources, facing subsidy cuts, rising prices, and a high rate of unemployment --- may be feeling it even more. Their eroding coincidence would feed the cycle of economic distress.

All the posturing statements of the President --- on Tuesday, he declared that many countries had asked Tehran for economic advice --- and the attempts of State news agency IRNA to hide the news cannot offer a cure. Instead, the Islamic Republic will move to another question: what will be the political effect of the falling currency and confidence? Passive acceptance by the public or a sign of public anger? And if the latter, in what form and directed at whom?

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Middle East/North Africa Special: Policing the Female Body...and the Women Who Resist

The "Million Woman" march in Egypt on Tuesday

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In Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, and beyond, women have continued to exert their agency against the grain of regimes which would otherwise stamp their anger as troublesome or hysterical. In recent days, they have --- as they have for months --- made their presence felt, striking out against the patriarchal systems of governance which threaten to cripple the progressive development of the region. Doing, these women voice a clear and necessary message to the "West": Get your own house in order whilst we deal with the policing of ours.

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The Latest from Iran (20 December): The Strains Within

See also Iran Special: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani in 5 Scenes
The Latest from Iran (19 December): And Now A Spy Story....

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2045 GMT: Currency Watch. Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post summarises the dramatic developments over Iran's currency and Tehran's trade with the United Arab Emirates, and links the two events:

Iranian officials including the ambassador to the [UAE], Mohammad Reza Fayyaz, initially confirmed Tuesday that Iran had cut trade ties with its third-largest trading partner, the semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported. The Iranian Econews agency also quoted Mehdi Ghazanfari, the minister of industries and business, as saying that trade with the United Arab Emirates was halted because of its “anti-Iranian positions".

Following the statements, the rial fell to unprecedented lows against the dollar Tuesday, amounting to a 15 percent loss in value over the past three days, the Fars News Agency reported.

“There is sheer panic in the market,” one steel trader said. “The price of the dollar is increasing by the hour.”

Iran’s currency also dropped sharply in October 2010 after the United Arab Emirates implemented sanctions against Iran.

After Tuesday’s plunge, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi denied that Iranian-U.A.E. trade relations were cut. He said the emirates had simply been “warned” not to go along with sanctions proposed by the United States, Fars News Agency reported.

While the linkage is a bit too simple --- the Iranian currency has been falling for weeks, with an accelerated decline in the last few days before the trade announcement --- Erdbrink usefully describes the confusion and even chaos within Iran's establishment:

Adding to the confusion, the Iran-U.A.E. Chamber of Commerce said it had received a letter from the Central Bank of Iran banning all trade in dirhams, the U.A.E. currency, starting Tuesday.

Massoud Daneshmand, chairman of the joint chamber, pleaded for calm, Mehr reported. “The U.A.E. trades with Iran for at least $25 billion,” the agency quoted him as saying. “Any decision about this country should be thoroughly thought through.”

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Egypt Document: Alaa Abd-El Fattah from Prison "Half an Hour With My Son Khaled"

On his third day Khaled visited me. It was a surprise. I’d expected that the doctor wouldn’t allow a visit until at least a week. Khaled visited me for half an hour. I held him for ten minutes.

My God! How come he’s so beautiful? Love at first touch! In half an hour he gave me joy to fill the jail for a whole week. In half an hour I gave him love I wished would surround him for a whole week. In half an hour I changed and the universe changed around me. Now I understand why my imprisonment continues: they wanted to deprive me of joy. Now I understand why I will resist: my imprisonment will not stop my love. My happiness is resistance. Holding Khaled for a few moments is carrying on the fight.

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