Syria, Egypt, Bahrain (and Beyond): Uncertainty of Death, Certainty of Conflict

Egyptian security forces raid Tahrir Square in Cairo this morning

See also Egypt Document: Alaa Abd-El Fattah from Prison "Half an Hour With My Son Khaled"
Bahrain Analysis: Are Sunni Groups Moving Away from the Regime?
Syria Feature: Fog of War --- How Many Defectors Died on Monday?
Monday's Syria, Egypt, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: From Mohamed Bouazizi to the Tear-Gassing of Protests

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2313 GMT: Zaynab AlKhawaja sends a triumphant tweet to signify her release from prison:

Down with Hamad!

She then writes: "This morning I was in a prison cell, planning how I wud spend at least 1 yr in prison. I wud never have believed I wud be at home hugging and cuddling Jude tonight."

(23:22 GMT update) Zaynab continues: "These last few days were tough, but the only thing that broke me down was leaving political prisoner Fathiya [Abduali] behind. Fathiya is such a great woman, she is so sweet & wonderful. I cant believe she has been in prison this long, forgotten by everyone. [I] will tell you all more about Fathiya and about our arrest tomorrow, theres so much I want to share with u all. Infact so many times I wished I had my phone so that I could tweet from prison ;)."

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Bahrain Analysis: Are Sunni Groups Moving Away from the Regime? (Gengler)

Sunni Rally at Al Fatah Mosque, 16 DecemberThe prospect that Bahrain's three Sunni Islamic societies --- representing the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafis, and Sunni nationalists in the NGU --- might attempt to coordinate their political programs must be more than a little unsettling to the Al Khalifa ruling family. With a Shi'a-led opposition the state knows how to deal; concerted political mobilization among Bahraini Sunnis is a much more novel --- and more dangerous --- development.

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North Korea Audio: Scott Lucas with BBC "After the Death of Kim Jong-Il"

Kim Jong-Un and Kim Jong-IlI spoke with BBC West Midlands on Monday afternoon about the situation in North Korea after the death of the leader Kim Jong-Il, succeeded by his son Kim Jong-Un.

I don't think my take-away line about the internal situation will be shocking --- the regime's priority will be stability. However, I may set a different tone from others on the international situation: speculation in the media about a heightened North Korean threat, with missiles backing up the rhetoric, is likely to be misleading. Pyongyang will not be looking to start any fights at a time when it needs to assure its security within.

The discussion begins at the 1:11.00 mark.

Syria Feature: Fog of War --- How Many Defectors Died on Monday?

Fighter in Free Syrian Army (Sezayi Erken/AFP/Getty)There were two important developments in Syria on Monday. The day started with a large protest in the central Midan district of Damascus, the opposition's test the regime's promise to meet the Arab League's demand for reforms. The regime failed that test, opening fire on one of the largest protests in Damascus in months and killing up to three people.

By the end of the day, however, this headline was eclipsed by others: as many as 48 civilians had died nationwide, and 70 (or 72) soldiers had been killed in Jebel al Zawiya in Idlib Province in the northwest, as they tried to defect. The combined total of deaths, reported by some activists,would make Monday one of the bloodiest days of the crisis.

By late Monday night, however, a series of controversies had arisen. Neither the Local Coordinating Committees of Syria nor the Free Syrian Army nor any of EA's contacts had any direct knowledge of the defectors. Indeed, we were wary of the report because it did not come through traditional sources. EA's earlier note that a source had spoken to one of the defectors, was a misunderstanding --- the source had read an account from the original source, the Syrian Revolution General Commission. In-fighting began to set in, as some activists doubted the validity of the claims.

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Iran Special: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani in 5 Scenes

A trusted EA source gives us the latest from Tehran, through a series of events this past week:

SCENE 1: Hassan Rohani, an ally of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, hosts a meeting of the Strategic Research Center of the Expediency Council. The topic is the Arab Spring, specifically the role of the Iran-led Islamic Awakening in the movements across North Africa and the Middle East.

All proceeds accordingly to plan until question-and-answer when Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Rafsanjani, makes a statement. Hashemi, a women's right activist who has been detained on at least two occasions and still faces charges, declares --- to audible gasps from the audience --- that the Arab Spring has not been influenced by the Iranian regime but by the Green Movement. She continues with a challenge to the Republic's officials, to the Government, and even to the Supreme Leader.

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Syria, Egypt, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: From Mohamed Bouazizi to the Tear-Gassing of Protests

2124 GMT: Earlier we reported that cell phone communication was shut down in the Salahaddine district, near the center of Aleppo (Map). Now we may know why.

This video is impossible for us to verify, but activists claim that it was taken from a protest on the Salahaddine district:

2105 GMT: The LCCS has once again raised the death toll:

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Tear Gas in Bahrain: Suppression and Suffering Through "Lethality Reduction"

Click here to read article in Arabic. Thanks to مترجِم 14 فبراي for the translation.

Visiting the website of Condor Technologies, a Brazilian "non-lethal" arms company accused this week of exporting tear gas to Bahrain, one is instantly impressed that they have thought very hard about how to present their business. The front page picture asks us to ponder: what on earth is "Lethality Reduction"?

On Sunday in Bahrain, a funeral was held for Abdulali Ali Ahmed, a 73-year man who choked to death in his home from tear gas inhalation. The funeral itself was attacked by police with tear gas.

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The Latest from Iran (19 December): And Now A Spy Story....

Iranian State TV's presentation of the US "spy", Amir Mirzaei Hekmati

See also Iran Special: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani in 5 Scenes
The Latest from Iran (18 December): Ahmadinejad Throws Down Another Challenge

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2125 GMT: Spy Watch. The father of Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, the Iranian-American accused by Tehran of espionage (see 0725 GMT), has said the allegation is "absolutely, positively" wrong: "My son is no spy. He is innocent. He's a good fellow, a good citizen, a good man. These are all unfounded allegations and a bunch of lies."

Ali Hekmati said his son did join the military in 2001 --- as the Iranians claimed --- but served the U.S. Marines, not the Army, and worked in linguistics as an Arabic translator, not in military intelligence. He added that Amir Hekmati never did any intelligence work for the Pentagon or the CIA and that, after the military, he went to work for a private security contractor.

The Hekmati fmaily first reported Amir's arrest in September. Ali Hekmati said that he had not been able to see his son, who was only allowed a couple visits by his Iranian grandmothers and who has not been provided a lawyer. US officials have requested access but have yet to received approval.

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EA Video Special: Kim Jong Il's Funky Get Down Propaganda Party (September 2010)

An EA reader sends the message, "Expect this to be viral by the time the day is out", leading us to a video of Kim Jong Il and his armed forcesstrutting to LMFAO's "Party Rock".

Yes, but we were there first --- a flashback to EA on 5 September 2010, "Funking It Up With the Axis of Evil":

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North Korea Special: A Last Look at Kim Jong Il Looking at Things

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For more than a year, we have brought the best of "Kim Jong Il Looking at Things". We have featured The Glorious Leader looking at pigs, looking at a radish, looking at bucket, and looking at something which we're still not quite sure about. We had a video special of him looking at an apartment, complete with  running water a wardrobe, a crying girl, a singing man --- and toilet paper. We even broke the photograph of Kim looking at his hacked Twitter account.

Now an era comes to an end: barring an unexpected image from the afterlife, a last look at Kim Jong Looking at Things....

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