Before last night’s Republican debate in Michigan, there were two questions on every viewer’s mind.
Neither of them were answered satisfactorily. Instead, we got a surprise ending: the final nail in the political coffin of Texas Governor Rick Perry’s political coffin, driven home with the force of a Craftsman 12-volt Hammerhead
Thursday, November 10, 2011 at 5:27 | Scott Lucas in Africa, EA Global, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran 2131 GMT: An evening protest in Qaboun, Damascus, was reportedly broken up by Assad loyalists. At the last minute, what sounds like an explosion or gunshot can be heard:
2010 GMT: We've had reports of many defections today in several locations. Now, this video has been uploaded, showing men who claim to be Syrian army officers and soldiers defecting in Idlib Province:
Whatever the IAEA document actually proves is up in the air, but what it does provide is a chance for everyone to claim a victory. The Israeli government, without resorting to military attack, can say that the world is standing up to Iran; its US and European counterparts can enter discussions with Tehran claiming a stronger hear; the Iranian regime can create more space for its suppression of dissent.
That --- more than any claim of nuclear equipment or foreign scientists helping Tehran towards a Bomb --- is the overriding "accomplishment" of this report.
See also Iran Analysis: The IAEA Nuclear Report --- Everyone's a Winner!
Iran Special Analysis (Part 1): The Nuclear Report --- "May" Is Not "Definitely"
Iran Snap Analysis: The IAEA Nuclear Report --- Serious, But Not That Serious....
Iran Special: "Activities Relevant to the Development of a Nuclear Explosive Device" --- Text of IAEA Report
Iran Opinion: It's Not Nukes, It's Not The Plot....It's Human Rights
The Latest from Iran (8 November): That Ahmadinejad Speech....
2100 GMT: At the Movies. Reza Allamehzadeh has directed a new film, "The Iranian Taboo", about persecution of members of the Baha'i faith.
1730 GMT: Nuke Watch. Weakest reporting today on the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme?
Well, The New York Times tries hard to claim the award. The headline is straightforward, "Iran Escalates Anti-U.S. Rhetoric Over Nuclear Report", but the Times slaps on a psychological evaluation that "Iran’s leaders [are] clearly worried that the long-awaited report, released Tuesday by the International Atomic Energy Agency, could sway world opinion and deepen Iran’s isolation".
As for the report, there is absolutely no consideration of it apart from the dubious assurance that it is "buttressed by voluminous evidence not previously disclosed" --- most of the information has been put out in previous IAEA reports or in "leaks" from officials --- and that it "concluded that Iran had been secretly engaged in behaviors that suggested it was seeking to construct a nuclear weapon" and "also asserted that Iran may be researching ways to deliver a nuclear weapon via a missile warhead".
Wednesday, November 9, 2011 at 11:46 | Scott Lucas in Africa, EA Global, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran A march of young people in Taiz in Yemen today challenges the Saleh regime
See also Bahrain Video Feature: The Detention of the Athletes
Syria Video Special: Undercover With Those Challenging the Regime
Syria Audio Special: How Does This End?
Tuesday's Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Noticing Homs
2120 GMT: The presence of security forces in the Khalidiya section of Homs today:
Tadmur in Homs Province tonight:
Anadan in Aleppo Province:
Let's start with the "smoking gun" statement from the IAEA that does not exactly smoke:
Prior to the end of 2003....activities [which may be related to a militarised nuclear effort] took place under a structured programme. There are also indications that some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing.
"May" is not definitely. In the analogy of the BBC's Paul Danahar, drawing from the language of a Reuters report, "If the answer to the question 'Do you think she likes me?' was 'strong indications that she might possibly", I would not be off to buy a ring."
But let's examine "may" in the context of the IAEA's 15-page annex, which in the spin of unnamed officials to media this week, became "definitely".
Sarah Morgan and Andrew Apostolou write for Foreign Affairs:
Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the United States has vacillated between engagement and confrontation with the Islamic Republic, with sanctions filling the gap. As Iran has moved closer to achieving its nuclear ambitions in recent years, tensions are rising once again. The latest round of U.S. sanctions, signed into law in 2010, has hurt the Iranian government by restricting finance for oil refineries and discouraging foreign companies from conducting business with it. Yet sanctions have not delayed Iran’s nuclear drive, foiled its support for terrorism abroad, or kept it from meddling in its neighbors’ affairs.
In the wake of revelations about an Iranian plot to kill Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, Abdel al-Jubeir, some in Congress are making the case for another round of sanctions, ostensibly to ramp up the pressure even more. But such a strategy leaves much to be desired. Over the past year, for example, Iran has enacted economic reforms and reduced the price of subsidies, riding out and adapting to sanctions.
Washington will only neutralize Iran by exploiting the regime's main vulnerability: its false claim to legitimacy. The ayatollahs' hold on power is inherently unstable because they have no popular mandate. Since staging a rigged election in 2009 to keep Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power, they have relied on repression and brutality to silence opposition, jailing journalists, torturing detainees, and executing critics (both real and imagined). By highlighting these crimes on the world stage and actively supporting Iran’s dissidents, the United States can place a new, more effective kind of pressure on Tehran and support the movement for democratic change from within. Focusing on human rights violations will allow the United States to expose the hypocrisy of the regime and remind Iran of its domestic troubles as it tries to expand its power and influence.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011 at 9:25 | Scott Lucas in EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran The sports channel ESPN's documentary of athletes in Bahrain who have detained and allegedly abused during the political crisis :
Wednesday, November 9, 2011 at 7:30 | James Miller in EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran See also Syria Audio Special: How Does This End?
Reporter Ramita Navai recently returned from Syria, where she worked undercover to film a documentary for the US Public Broadcasting Service and Britain's Channel 4. No free press or foreign journalists are allowed in Syria, so Navai snuck in by claiming that she was on a romantic holiday with her cameraman. This is arguably the best look at the realities and struggles of day-to-day life for those challenging the Assad regime.
PBS Frontline, Ramita Navai, Syria Wednesday, November 9, 2011 at 7:11 | James Miller in EA Middle East and Turkey, Journalism and Media, Middle East and Iran "What we haven't seen yet is large-scale political defection. But those who have defected have talked about the fact that there are many others who are willing to defect, who are beginning to question whether or not Assad can survive this. And, you know, the economic impact is just incredible on the country. And it's really only a matter of time before the defectors or before more leaders decide to jump ship on Assad."
