The International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iran's nuclear programme --- the subject of much advance presentation and hype since last week --- has appeared on the website of the Institute for Science and International Security.
The report is stronger than previous IAEA reports in two key areas: 1) its standard phrase of Iran's "non-diversion of declared nuclear material" has a tougher caveat this time over the IAEA's inability to inspect certain facilties --- "the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran"; and 2) the finding, for the first time, "Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device".
The second point is the one that unnamed officials have been touting, with amplification of supposed models and equipment for nuclear chain reactions, to international media. The IAEA has a 15-page annex with the technical information, but the salient point is its caution --- in comparison with what officials are presenting --- in its accusations of organised activity by Tehran for a militarised capability. While it sees "a structured programme" before 2003, when Iran's activities came under scrutiny after revelations about the possible research for military uses, the IAEA does not bring down the hammer of saying that Tehran has definitely done so since then: "some activities may still be ongoing".
CONCLUSIONS
52. While the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and LOFs declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement, as Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.
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