Turkey Special: Erdogan Government Reaches Out Abroad, Talks Tough at Home

Evaluating the recent status of Israeli-Turkish relations, Haaretz’s Zvi Bar’el called Turkey “an island of stability in the Middle East” and “a key link in the Iran-Iraq-Syria axis, a vital country for U.S. strategy".

Nothing could be further than the truth. Ankara’s “zero problem with neighbours” policy has not rested on Damascus and Tehran. Instead, the Erdogan Government has pursued political, economic, and strategic links not only with Syria and Iran but also Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Qatar, Cameroon, Tajikistan, Malaysia, Russia, and more.

That said, Turkey is not going to turn its back on Syria and Iran, no matter how that spectre --- in myth or reality --- frightens Washington. Less than a month ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said that Turkey and Iran aimed to triple their bilateral trade to $30 billion in five years. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Syrian President Bashar Assad at the groundbreaking ceremony of Asi Friendship Dam in Hatay in February and declared six important initiatives to be completed by the end of 2011, including another customs gate, a common bank, and the combination of natural gas networks, all to be completed by the end of 2011.

But February also witnessed a nuclear cooperation agreement between Turkey and Jordan, who wants to build a nuclear plant by 2019. And it was reported that Ankara and London were in close contact to complete a draft plan by June on joint military exercises and information-sharing 

Ankara’s continuing diplomatic efforts on Iran’s nuclear swap deal, the improvement of relations with Armenia, the relatively moderate approach to the Cyprus question within the context of accession to the European Union, an active role in the UN Security Council,  the intention of mediating between Hamas-Fatah in Palestine, factions in Lebanon, and Israel and Syria: all these mark gains for the ruling AKP, matched by the Kurdish opening on the domestic front. ,

But in this “island of stability”, now sharply contrasted with the situation for former friends in Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt, the increasinlgy conservative tone in the Erdogan Government, as it approaches June elections, should not be ignored

Following anti-Turkish government demonstrations in the Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus in late January, Erdogan criticized Cypriot syndicates calling Ankara to take its hands off their future. He said:

Provocative demonstrations are being carried out together with the southern part. They say ‘go home’ to us. Insensitivity of the [northern part’s] administration is in question. They don’t have the right for such an action. They say ‘leave here’. Who are you? I have my martyrs and war veterans here. I am interested strategically. Strategically, Turkey is in Cyprus for the very same thing [for which] Greece is in Cyprus.

Erdogan then called the president of northern Cyprus, Mehmet Ali Talat, iand discussed the future of the island.

Last weekend, following French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s statement proposing an alternative solution to the process for Turkey's full membership and partnership in the European Union, Erdogan said that the European bloc was becoming a Christian combination, not an alliance of civilizations.: "If they do not want Turkey in, they should say this openly … and then we will mind our own business and will not bother them. I do not have a hidden agenda and I do speak clearly ... Don’t stall us ... Let’s not stall each other.”

On the issue of further democratisation and the rights of Turkey's Kurds, especially over bilingualism and local autonomy, Erdogan drew a red line in late December when he said: “With the understanding of ‘one nation, one flag, one state’, our official language providing our social peace is Turkish.”

The Kurdish separtist PKK have ended a unilateral truce, claiming there is no progress towards a resolution. An attempt at a symbolic step, letting PKK’s imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan spend the rest of his life in house arrest, was discussed, but Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Çiçek said on Tuesday: “We will not make any deals with anyone. This is for certain. We will continue with the same determination.” Justice Minister Sadullah Ergin added, “The current outlook is not suitable for this and the society is not ready for this.”

So the AKP is striking a conservative posture at home, even as it holds out the unclenched fist abroad. This does not mean it is seeking confrontation as an election strategy: there is no desire for a military clash with PKK, any more than there is a wish to use Iran and Syria against the US, but Erdogan is going to the leave no doubts. He is the man in charge. 

Significant Postscript: After the rumour that Erdogan received $25 million campaign donation from Iran. the Prime Minister sued Britain's Daily Telegraph at the High Court in London for “false and defamatory claim.” The British high court ruled that the newspaper did not establish its allegations and ordered it to pay Erdoğan £25,000 (about $40,000).