Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Insurgents Establish a "Buffer Zone"

Insurgents celebrate the seizure of a regime checkpoint near Ma'arat al-Numan in Idlib Province in Syria

See also Syria Analysis: Have Insurgent Victories Broken The Stalemate?
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live: Regime Advances in Homs, But Insurgents Take Key Town

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2003 GMT: Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has acknowledged responsibility for a drone aircraft shot down last weekend after flying about 55 kilometres into Israel.

Nasrallah said in a televised speech that the drone was Iranian-made and was shot down near the Dimona nuclear reactor.

1636 GMT: Syria. James Miller reports....

This video, one of many, reports to show the battle at the regime base at Wadi Aldaif, just east of Ma'arrat al Nouman. It generally matches satellite photos of the topography, though it is hard to make out how the fight is going.

This base is important --- it is home to some of Assad's underground bunkers and it also guards the main highway between Hama and points south such as Idlib and Aleppo.

1606 GMT: Syria. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has insisted that the Syrian passenger jet grounded and inspected on Wednesday was carrying military equipment and ammunition, made by a Russian manufacturer, to the Assad regime.

The plane was travelling from Moscow to Damsacus when it was intercepted by Turkish jet fighters.

1531 GMT: Syria. Mariam Karouny of Reuters reports on a new initiative by Islamist forces to unite:

The new front does not include some groups which Western officials consider the most radical such as the Nusra Front, an affiliate of al Qaeda which has claimed responsibility for a series of devastating bombs in Damascus and Aleppo.

Ahrar al-Sham, a Salafist group which includes a large contingent of foreign fighters, withdrew, objecting to the killing of a Salafist leader killed by a rival rebel force.

But rebel sources said talks were continuing to bring Ahrar al-Sham back, and leader of the new front, Ahmad al-Sheikh, said it was continuing to attract members.

"We have more than 40,000 fighters now and the numbers are growing because more brigades are expressing interest in joining," said Sheikh, known to his men as Abu Eissa.

Accurate figures for the total rebel numbers are hard to establish but such a force could represent around half of Assad's armed opponents.

Originally the group was called the Islamic Front to Liberate Syria. Brigade leaders voted to drop the word 'Islamic' but Islam remains a central element, Sheikh told Reuters.

"We are proud of our Islamism and we are Islamists. But we do not want to show it in a slogan because we might not live up to the responsibility of Islam," said Sheikh, who is also the head of the Sukour al-Sham Brigades. "But we want a state with Islamic reference and we are calling for it."

Brigades in Damascus, Deir al-Zor, Aleppo, Idlib and Homs provinces have joined the front and logistical offices have been opened across Syria to facilitate coordination, Sheikh said.

1427 GMT: Syria. Panos Mumtzis, the United Nations' chief humanitarian coordinator, has warned that the aid effort faces a "significant funding shortfall" for shelter, winter preparation, supplies for health care, and water.

The UN estimates about 500,000 Syrians have fled the country. About 335,000 of them are registered refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq.

By the end of the year, the UN projects the number to registered refugees will be about 710,000. Meanwhile, inside Syria, there are an estimated 1.2 million displaced Syrians living in ill-equipped public buildings.

"This is no longer business as usual. We have moved into an emergency situation. It is a crisis," said Mumtzis. He said that of $488 million requested for Syrian refugee assistance, only $142 million has been provided, while only 38% of a call for $348 million for those within Syria has been supported.

1233 GMT: Syria. Majd Arar, a resident of Malki in northwest Damascus, has spoken of raids by regime forces on houses, even in neighbourhoods relatively free of conflict: "This area has been considered quiet for a long time, but the government is now conducting search and arrests to further secure the area."

Arar said he had spoken to contact in the suburb of Qudsaya who reported similar raids and thefts of electronics, computers, and mobile phones:

The shelling of this area was very intensive. Some residents talked about shelling landing every 20 to 30 seconds, but after all [this] the government was able to enter the place. Most likely the rebels have withdrawn to some other part nearby.

Arar assessed:

Everyone here understands that the time for the government offensive has come. For the past two or three months the government was defending its ground. But now its making an offensive, maybe because there’s a shortage of weapons with the rebels.

Even if the government seizes new territory that doesn’t mean the battle has ended, because the government still has to take arms from almost 100,000 people. This is something the government is unable to do.

listen to ‘Assad forces storm pro-govt area of Damascus as they consolidate gains in the city and beyond says @MajdArar’ on Audioboo

1225 GMT: Syria. Claimed footage of the first Alawite woman to defect from the Syrian army, Colonel Zubaida al-Miqi:

Al-Miqi says, according to The Guardian, "My people, my sect: the ongoing conflict in Syria now is a conflict between the oppressor and the oppressed and that means the conflict was never between religious sects and minorities but the regime is turning it to a sectarian conflict to contain the revolution and destroy it."

1220 GMT: Syria. An opposition conference due to take place in Qatar has been postponed until November, at the urging of western governments, to encourage wider representation.

The conference is being presented as "major makeover", with new political and civil society groups, from inside and outside Syria, joining the Syrian National Council.

1208 GMT: Yemen. Back from an academic break to find news that masked gunmen have killed a Yemeni employee of the US Embassy in Sanaa.

Riding a motorcycle, the attackers opened fire on a car carrying Qassem Aqlan, the head of an Embassy security team, to work.

1008 GMT: Syria. Two more first-hand reports today highlight the point in EA's analysis that, while insurgents may be breaking the stalemate in some areas, they face difficulties on other fronts because of a lack of arms.

Rania Abouzeid writes for Foreign Affairs of disputes and rivalries within the opposition and their supporters, with the complaint of insurgents that "the suppliers aren't giving goods to the right people". Martin Chulov and Ian Black, in The Guardian, offer a parallel account from Aleppo of fighters desperate for arms and ammunition running low.

0908 GMT: Syria. Amid an escalation in tensions, the Turkish Minister of Energy has said that the Assad regime halted purchases of electricity from Ankara a week ago.

Turkey had provided 20% of Syria's power.

Meanwhile, Russia has demanded an explanation from Turkish authorities over Wednesday's grounding and inspection of a Syrian civilian airplane, en route from Moscow to Damascus.

Moscow's Foreign Ministry said that Turkish officials refused to grant its diplomatic staff access to 17 Russian citizens on the aircraft during the eight hours that the plane was held on suspicions that it was carrying military equipment.

The Ministry source said, "Neither weapons nor any kind of systems or parts for military equipment were on board or could have been on board.

Syria's Minister of Transport said Turkey had committed "air piracy which contradicts civil aviation treaties".

0528 GMT: Syria. Turkish authorities have allowed the departure of a Syrian plane, carrying about 30 passengers, after it was grounded for more than eight hours on Wednesday.

Claiming suspicions of military equipment on board, Turkey said it seized "objectionable cargo" after intercepting the A-320 Syrian Air plane in Turkish air space en route from Moscow to Damascus.

There is no confirmation of the objects in the cargo. Turkish media are speculating that they could be communications equipment and/or missile components.

0515 GMT: Syria. For months, insurgent forces and many civilians have called for a "protected zone". The international community has debated and manoeuvred but, in the end, appears to have dithered.

Now the insurgents --- probably aided by the Syrian military's fear of Turkish artillery --- may have reached the goal through the de facto control of territory. Reports on Wednesday indicated that the Free Syrian Army, after a series of advances in Idlib Province, had established a zone 15-20 kilometres (9-12.5 miles) deep from the Turkish border into Syria. The border of the zone is only five miles from the town of Jisr al Shughour, 15 to 20 miles from Kafranbel and Khan Shiekhoun, and possibly only 10 miles from the city Idlib.

The regime indirectly testified to the insurgent success, as it rejected a call by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon for a unilateral ceasefire and said the opposition must first halt. operations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi, Syrian foreign ministry spokesperson, said that insurgents had "used the opportunity [of ceasefires] to expand their armed deployment and increase casualties due to terrorist activities".

So we watch. Will regime forces try to break down the zone, either on the ground or from the air? If so, will Turkey --- and possibly other international forces --- break cover and display their backing of the insurgents? Alternatively, will the Free Syrian Army try to push the boundaries of control, taking the zone into a town or city?