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Saturday
Jul232011

Syria Snap Analysis: Will 22 July Be Marked by History as A Turning Point?

Hama, 22 July (Reuters)The security forces have withdrawn from Hama and Deir Ez Zor. They are trying to quell the protests in Homs and around Damascus and Aleppo, but they are not succeeding. It is hard to imagine that the regime has any strongholds of significance left. Through crackdowns, and threats of sectarian violence, the protests have only grown in both scale, scope, and reach. To repeat the rhetorical question I asked on Friday; Where AREN'T they protesting in Syria?

And now the follow-up rhetorical question: how can the Assad regime possibly expect to survive this level of democratic upheaval?

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Friday
Jul222011

Norway Special: The Oslo Bombing and the Threat from Al Qa'eda

Photo: APThe targeting of Norway should not be a surprise. In 2003, Al Qaeda --- through its current leader, Ayman Al-Zawahiri --- first threatened Norway, possibly because of the involvement of Norwegian special forces in Afghanistan. Since then, the Norwegian role in Afghanistan has expanded, although its troops are to be withdrawn later this year.

In July 2010, the Norwegian police announced the arrests of three suspected Al Qaeda members who may have been planning an attack. Two months later, the suggestion was that the attack they were planning was in retaliation for the publication of the cartoons ridiculing the Prophet Muhammad. In December 2010, there was the suicide attack in neighbouring Sweden by a British resident. On 12 July, an Iraqi-born cleric, facing deportation since 2005 as a security risk, was charged with issuing death threats against Norwegian politicians.

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Friday
Jul222011

Norway Video: Explosion in Prime Minister's Office Injures At Least 8

See also Norway Special: The Oslo Bombing and the Threat from Al Qa'eda

UPDATE 2045 GMT: As Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg delivers a message to the nation --- "You are not going to destroy us, you are not going to destroy our democracy" --- the Norwegian Minister of Justice says the shooter in the Utoeya attack is Norwegian.

UPDATE 1945 GMT: Police are now saying "9 or 10" people were killed in the Oslo explosion, caused by a car bomb outside the Prime Minister's office building.

UPDATE 1935 GMT: Alexandra Sandels of the Los Angeles Times passes on the first-hand observations of Swedish colleague Mattias Carlsson from the Utoeya shootings: "Between 15-20 bodies in water. Many young women. Groups of dead bodies at 4 different spots around the island. 8 people dead in one spot, 5-6 in another."

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Friday
Jul222011

The Latest from Iran (22 July): Ahmadinejad Ready for Nuclear Talks?

2000 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hadi Hamidi Shafigh, an ethnic right activist and member of the Azerbaijan National Movement, has reportedly been detained on the eve of his wedding.

Last month Shafigh was sentenced to six months imprisonment and 60 lashes for demanding Azerbaijani lunguage rights. He was chanting the slogan, "We want to study Azerbaijani language" during a football match in Tabriz on 1 May.

Shafigh has been arrested on several occasions dating back to 2006 and expelled from university.

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Friday
Jul222011

Syria Video Special: Friday's Protests Across the Country --- Set 2

Security forces beating protesters in a mosque in Aleppo

Tal Rifaat near Aleppo: "Why are you afraid? God is with us"

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Friday
Jul222011

Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Meanwhile in Bahrain...

Two-part video of a march, followed by a security force patrol, in Abu Siba in Bahrain on Thursday night

See our separate video blogs, Syria Video Special: Friday's Protests Across the Country Set 1 and Set 2


2136 GMT: James Miller sums up the day.

July 22nd will be remembered by the world, because of a terrible act of terrorism in Norway, the bombing outside the Prime Minister's office in Oslo and the shootings in Utoeya. Many died, and the country was terrorized, but history might miss what may be a more important story, with larger implications.

In Syria, July 22nd may be remembered as a turning point. There were massive demonstrations in every major region, and in every major city, in the country.

In our first video blog, Scott Lucas documented protests in Idlib in the northwest, Artouz (Damascus province), Binnish (northwest), a truly massive protest in Hama (claims of 650,000+ protesters in the streets), Aleppo, Saraqab (Idlib province), Qamishili (northeast), Horan (south), Kobanî (Ain Arab) and Serê Kaniyê (Ras al-Ain) in the Kurdish area of Syria, Kafr Nabl in the northwest, and the Midan section at the heart of Damascus.

In our second video special, we see more massive protests in the Midan and Al-Qadam districts of Damascus, the suburbs of Damascus (Tal Rifaat, Harasta), huge crowds in Deir Ez Zor, northeast Syria, where as many as 550,000 gathered, Zabadani (north of Damascus), Idlib (northwest), Halfaya (Hama province), Jableh on the coast, Al-Raqqa, Lattakia, Homs, and the largest protest in Hama we've seen yet.

In one of the most important videos we've seen today, Syrian security bashes into the Amne Mosque in Aleppo, beating protesters. Perhaps even more important, the video we've posted below (1538) shows that military cadets joined the protesters in Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria, a city that has been unable to foster a sustained protest movement, but a city that erupted in protest today.

The security forces have fled Hama and Deir Ez Zor, they are trying to quell the protests in Homs and around Damascus and Aleppo, but they are not succeeding. It is hard to imagine that the regime has any strongholds of significance left. Through crackdowns, and threats of sectarian violence, the protests have only grown in both scale, scope, and reach. To repeat the rhetorical questions I asked earlier; Where AREN'T they protesting in Syria?

In Yemen, we also saw huge protests in several cities, where the protest movement also shows new signs of life (see videos at 1305).

We opened today's liveblog with Bahrain, so we'll close it with night protests in Bahrain.

1756 GMT: An activist translates this update from Shaam News:

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Friday
Jul222011

Syria Video Special: Friday's Protests Across the Country

Footage of a protest inside the Amne Mosque in Aleppo, disrupted by pro-regime men beating demonstrators

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Friday
Jul222011

Syria Feature: A US Plan to Replace Assad? (Ignatius)

As the Obama administration steps up its support for regime change in Syria, the Arab Spring is moving into what could be its hottest phase. The puzzle is how to help the Syrian opposition gain power without foreign military intervention — and without triggering sectarian massacres inside the country.

For months, as protests mounted in Syria, President Obama waited to see if President Bashar al-Assad could deliver on his talk of reform. Last week, the administration all but gave up on him and switched gears — and began working actively for a transition to a democratic regime.

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Friday
Jul222011

Iran Snapshot: The Supreme Leader's Economic Plan (Ghajar)

Ayatollah Khamenei at an Oil PlantOn July 19, Iran’s highest authority, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, published a “General Employment Policy” consisting of 13 goals or strategies to improve employment in Iran. The plan was an indirect but telling acknowledgement of Iran’s massive unemployment problem --- it follows just a week after statements by Khamenei to Iran’s Chamber of Commerce in which the Supreme Leader urged economic optimism and restraint in publishing discouraging items regarding the economy. The statement was published to virtually every state-owned or affiliated news agency in Farsi, as well as the the Supreme Leader’s website.

Ayatollah Khamenei published the plan with advice from the Expediency Council, indicating once again the high level of importance placed upon solving the unemployment crisis in Iran. It is also worth noting that the Supreme Leader’s other statements the same week were translated into English on his website --- however, perhaps due to concerns over publicizing Iran’s unemployment situation, the 13-point plan is not featured in English on the site though a copy in Farsi was posted.

The Supreme Leader’s strategies for improving Iran’s abysmal unemployment situation are as follows:

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Thursday
Jul212011

The Latest from Iran (21 July): Stand By Your (Supreme) Man

2010 GMT: Literature Watch (cont.). More about the poetic debut of the head of the Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi (see 0710 GMT)....

Naqdi's effort, which has failed to impress our Literary Correspondent, is titled “The Youth and Soft War", rhythmically (or not-so-rhythmically) takes on Twitter, Facebook, rap music, and jazz. The opening lines, which may lose a bit in translation:

He [ failed in hunting me with his gun. He came back with lowly hired musicians, the Internet, and musical instruments/


His navy hasn’t been able to rein me in. He came with an eye-catching doll/
Bombs and missiles failed to scare me. He came back with the rumor-spreading Twitter and Facebook/
He used chemical weapons and I still didn’t back off. He came with crack and heroin.

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