Iran Election Guide

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Tuesday
Nov302010

Wikileaks Video & Transcript: Hillary Clinton "Not Just an Attack on America, But Also on The International Community"

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to the press on Monday afternoon:

CLINTON: I want to take a moment to discuss the recent news reports of classified documents that were illegally provided from United States Government computers.

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Tuesday
Nov302010

New WikiLeaks On Turkey: Snubbing the Opposition, Suspecting the Military, Warning about Iran

The Main Opposition: "No More than a Bunch of Elitist Ankle-Biters"

The cable, sent 30 December 2004 and titled “Erdoğan and the AK Party after Two Years in Power: Trying to Get a Grip on Themselves, on Turkey, on Europe,” reports not only about the Justice and Development Party (AKP) but also about the main opposition party (CHP). The CHP is called “no more than a bunch of elitist ankle-biters” and claimed as one of the reasons why there is no serious alternative to Prime Minster Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

Eric Edelman, then the US ambassador to Turkey, adds: “The AKP’s lack of cohesion as a party and lack of openness as a government is reflected in the range of murky, muddled motives for wanting to join the EU we have encountered among those AKPers who say they favor pursuing membership...or at least the process.”

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Monday
Nov292010

Egypt Video Special: Proof of Violence and Fraud in the Elections?

The videos, posted on Sunday and today, of conflict and possible vote manipulations in Egypt's Parliamentary elections:

Alleged vote manipulation in Fayoum:

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Monday
Nov292010

Wikileaks Special: EA's Coverage Today

We will be trying to bring out the best of analysis and publishing in full some of the most striking documents from the Wikileaks release. Today's highlights:

ANALYSES

1. Our EA correspondent on Iran, Mr Tehrani, takes on the dramatic headlines about Tehran's neighbours encouraging a US military attack and assesses the real significance of the revelations for Iran and Arab states.

2. Our partner The Newest Deal backs up that analysis with a state-by-state review of the attitudes in the Middle East towards Iran.

3. Ali Yenidunya sees US clumsiness and problems for Ankara in the revelations about Turkey....

4. ....and Ali also has a few choice observations about Israel and the US position.

DOCUMENTS

1. August 2009: The US Consulate in Ankara is informed about "Election Fraud, Khamenei's Cancer, and Rafsanjani's Next Steps"

2. April 2009: Even before the Presidential election, a source is telling the US Consulate in Dubai about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political and economic problems.

Monday
Nov292010

Wikileaks-Iran Special: A State-by-State Regional View (The Newest Deal)

In a cable sent in February 2009, U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey recounted: "President Mubarak told [Middle East envoy George] Mitchell during his recent visit here that he did not oppose our talking with the Iranians, as long as 'you don't believe a word they say.'" Scobey continues in the cable: "Mubarak has a visceral hatred for the Islamic Republic, referring repeatedly to Iranians as 'liars,' and denouncing them for seeking to destabilize Egypt and the region."

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Monday
Nov292010

Wikileaks-Iran Document: Dubious Intelligence? "Election Fraud, Khamenei's Cancer, & Rafsanjani's Next Steps"

4. (C) Khamenei has cancer: XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that Rafsanjani remains vehemently opposed to Ahmadinejad but is biding his time because of a serious health crisis affecting Supreme Leader Khamenei: a terminal case of “blood cancer” (leukemia). XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that he heard from Rafsanjani that Khamenei is likely to die within a matter of months. As a result, Rafsanjani has stopped campaigning within the Assembly of Experts to challenge Khamenei, and now is focused on “letting nature take its course.”

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Monday
Nov292010

Egypt LiveBlog: The Latest on the Parliament Elections

MONDAY, 28 NOVEMBER

2020 GMT: An EA correspondent checks in....

The High Elections Commission, claiming that complaints are very minor, says the ruling National Democratic Party has won 125 of the 508 seats so far. The Muslim Brotherhood has won 0.

Over coming days, 185 seats will have run-offs.

MP Abdel Rahim al-Ghoul of Nagga Hamadi in the province of Qena, accused of involvement in the murder of seven Coptic Christians in January 2010, is in a run-off.

Parliamentary correspondent Mahmoud Nafadi is noting continuing changes in the recorded votes, indicating rigging.

Our EA correspondent also notes the assertions of human rights groups in our 1925 GMT entry. She adds that the head of the Tagammu Party has added his voice to charges that representatives and voters were barred from polling stations.

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Monday
Nov292010

The Latest from Iran (29 November): Politics and Assassination

2045 GMT: Picture of Day. Cleric Ahmad-Reza Ahmedpour, released (see 1905 GMT) after eight months in prison.

1940 GMT: Today's Assassination. In his press conference,President Ahmadinejad said, "Undoubtedly the hand of the Zionist regime and Western governments is involved" in this morning's assassination (see 0730 and 1010 GMT) of one Iranian nuclear scientist and wounding of another.

Dr Majid Shahriari was killed and Professor Fereydoun Abbasi and his wife were wounded in separate car bombings in Tehran.

Mohammad Reza Rahimi, the 1st Vice-President, also blamed Israel, saying it had "picked up the weapon of terror". Speaking at a joint conference with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Rahimi added, "We will remove this mask and devilish cover from their face and reveal their identity."

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Monday
Nov292010

Wikileaks-Iran Document: Problems with the Opposition and the Economy...in April 2009

Ahmadinejad's defeats on the budget and his plan to distribute cash payments to lower-income Iranians show that power centers, such as the Majles, are actively working to pressure the President prior to the June election....

Khamenei moderated his support for Ahmadinejad following Khatami's decision to exit the contest. Hosseini predicts Mir Hossein Mousavi will win the election.

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Monday
Nov292010

Wikileaks Special: The Consequences for Israel, the US, and the Middle East

There will be immediate consequences of these revelations: for example, look for the Iranian regime to wave this proof that foreign dark forces are trying to break Iran. Hamas will uses the leaks against Fatah and Fatah will use them against Israel. 

But far beyond this is the question of how others will use  American "power": these cables indicate how that concept is primarily used as an image that local governments manipulate for their own ends. Now that the act is out in the open, can they continue to do so? And how can the Obama Administration respond?

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