Iran Election Guide

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Tuesday
Nov162010

Israel-Palestine Latest: A "48-Hour Window" for West Jerusalem's Decision on US Incentives

On Monday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised West Jerusalem's willingness to embrace Washington's package of incentives: "This is a very promising development and a serious effort by Prime Minister Netanyahu."

Meanwhile, a diplomat familiar with the details of the US offer, which hopes to bring a resumption of direct Israel-Palestine talks, said Israel would be allowed to finish hundreds of apartments already under construction in West Bank settlements.

Still, opposition continues in Israel.

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Monday
Nov152010

Iran Breaking: Ahmadinejad "We're Ready to Give Advice on Democracy"

Sometimes a political move is so audacious that it leaves me lost for analysis. So over to you, readers. From Fars News, via Azerbaijan's Trend:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Monday that Iran was ready to provide Europe with "its experiences and criteria" on implementing democracy, dpa reported with reference to Fars news agency.

Ahmadinejad, referring to protest demonstrations in Europe in general and the unrest in France in particular, said it was time that the political leaders listened to their people.

"It would be to the advantage of the Western leaders to implement justice rather than using violence against their people and suppressing their demands," Fars quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

"Iran was ready to provide these countries with its experience and criteria so they can again reconcile with their people and get out of the current political deadlock," he said.

Ahmadinejad blamed the political system in Europe and said that people were forced to vote for two or three parties created by the leaders, rather than for political figures they really wanted....

Monday
Nov152010

Burma Update: Censoring Aung San Suu Kyi (Aung Thet Wine)

The state-controlled censorship board in Burma, the Press Scrutiny and Registration Division (PSRD), has ordered domestic media to carry limited news about Aung San Suu Kyi, according to sources.

Media groups inside Burma were keen on reporting the most interesting news concerning Suu Kyi's release from house arrest, her public speech on Sunday, but were largely unable to do so due to restrictions by the PSRD.

“We were unable to run a large photo of Suu Kyi and could only use the size that we were allowed to use. We were also not permitted to use her photo on the front page. We wanted to carry news about her release on the front page, but the PSRD didn't allow us to do so,” said a reporter in Rangoon.

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Monday
Nov152010

Iran Document: Karroubi Strikes Back "The People Call You Seditious"

Mr Jannati! You accuse these people (the political prisoners) of sedition. They call you seditious because of what you say and the sedition that you are creating. You should be responsive for your actions. If there was a just system in the country with a jury, then we would show you what you did during the past 21 years and how much you violated the rights of people. You sit down with armed and security forces and review and approve or disapprove [from being eligible for election] whomever you like....You are responsible for things that have happened....

At the end I urge all Grand Ayatollahs and senior religious figures to act in order to preserve the dignity of Islam and clergy and also to prevent the violation of rights of prisoners so that...in the future we would not witness actions for which we cannot compensate.

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Monday
Nov152010

The Latest from Iran (15 November): Watching Rafsanjani, Listening to Karroubi

2045 GMT: Dropping the Sword. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi publicly confirmed the regime's handling of post-election detainees who are allowed out of jail: "If political prisoners hold meetings, issue statements and pursue activities within their political parties, their right to temporary leave of absence from prison will be removed."

2025 GMT: Execution Watch (Prime-Time TV Edition). Looks like the Iranian regime is feeling a bit of pressure on the "human rights" front.....

How else to explain yet another "confession" on national television by Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery and complicity in her husband's murder.

The blurred face of a woman, claimed to be Ashtiani, said, "I am a sinner". (The "confession" was voiced over, as Ashtiani speaks only Azeri.)

The report also contained purported statements by Ashtiani's son, Sajad Ghaderzadeh, and her lawyer, Houtan Kian, both of whom were arrested last month, and of the two German journalists who were trying to interview them.

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Monday
Nov152010

Afghanistan Analysis: Petraeus Hits Back at Karzai

So is the dispute between the Afghan Government and the US military serious or is it just a political show?

A day after President Hamid Karzai used The Washington Post to express his opposition to the current high-visibility US military presence, General David Petraeus, the commander of American forces, sent out his public-relations allies. According to "Afghan and US officials", Petraeus expressed "astonishment" and "disappointment" with the Post interview. He had warned Government advisors that the Karzai criticism threatened to undermine progress in the war and risked making the commander's position "untenable".

Specifically, Petraeus did not attend a scheduled meeting Sunday with Karzai. Instead he sought out Ashraf Ghani, who leads the Afghan government's planning on transition (and who has been a long-time favourite of Washington), to talk "hypothetical[ly]" of an inability to continue US operations.

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Monday
Nov152010

Israel Analysis: What Does Obama Expect from Netanyahu? (Benn)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from his journey to the United States with an American dictate: Freeze settlements for three months, during which time speedy negotiations will be held to determine the future border between Israel and Palestine. To soften the impression that this would be seen as giving in to U.S. pressure and to make it easier to gain cabinet approval for the freeze, the dictate was padded with political and security goodies, which can be summed up as such: stealth military aircraft in exchange for an end to Netanyahu's evasive tactics.

The prime minister rejected the offer when it was made before the U.S. midterm elections, but now he understands that the game is up and he has to fall in line.

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Monday
Nov152010

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Netanyahu to Get Narrow Acceptance of US Incentives, Palestinians Set Aside (For Now)

It has not been a week of progress for Palestinian officials. The reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas have failed to show any signs of reconciling, and Yasser Abed Rabbo, Secretary-General of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), told reporters Sunday that he and his colleagues were in the dark on other important matters: 

The Palestinian side is unaware of the details of the talks between the Israeli side and the Americans concerning finding a middle-ground form over freezing settlements. Once we receive an official American response, the Palestinian leadership would study it.

Beyond this feigned surprise, it is obvious that Ramallah is not confident with the proposal to West Jerusalem.

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Sunday
Nov142010

Iraq Video: EA's Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera's Inside Story

On Saturday I discussed the latest political situation in Iraq with MP Mahmoud Othman of the Kurdistan Alliance and Muhannad al-Bayati of the Iraqqiya coalition.

There has been some further chatter since we filmed this almost 24 hours ago, but nothing to change my opinion that Iraq is still some ways from the "formation of a government", let alone political stability. I also note that Western media, including some well-respected analysts, continue to be distracted by tangential speculation of whether the US or Iran has "won" or "lost" in this episode: the matter is, first and foremost, one concerning Iraqi politicians.

Sunday
Nov142010

Afghanistan Latest: Karzai Criticises US Military --- Posture or Opposition? (Partlow)

It is far from unprecedented for Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai to come out publicly against US military operations. He did so, for example, when American aerial bombing brought civilian casualties.

Still, this latest criticism comes as US commander David Petraeus is loudly spinning the success of the current American counter-insurgency strategy, which relies on the high-profile "offensive" of the American military in central and southern Afghanistan.

So does Karzai have a fundamental problem with the Petraeus strategy or is he just scoring a few political points with his domestic audience?

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