Iran Election Guide

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Tuesday
Nov302010

Wikileaks Special: A Guide to Day 2 of EA's Coverage

Missed anything? Catch up with A Guide to Day 1 of EA's Coverage:

Analysis

Ali Yenidunya  draws out the significance of another set of US reports on Turkey.

Document

This may be the most incisive intelligence and analysis of post-election Iran you will read all year. A European diplomat, just returned from an ambassador's post in December 2009, enlightened US officials:  "'Death to Khamenei' --- The Inside Line on the Post-Election Situation, Tehran's Politicians, Nuclear Talks, & US Hikers".

Videos and Transcripts

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denounces WikiLeaks. And Clinton and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu --- criticised by US officials in the WikiLeaks cables --- smile and don't mention the matter.

Tuesday
Nov302010

Podcast Special: Scott Lucas on "US Politics and the Future of Obama"

The University of Birmingham's Ideas Lab is pursuing an excellent initiative to bring the voices of academics to a general audience. I had the chance to speak with them this week about the work of EA WorldView and, specifically, about the current state of play in US politics.

Questions include: How serious is the setback for President Obama from the 2010 Congressional elections? What are the prospects for the Republican Party? Is Sarah Palin --- and beyond Palin, the Tea Party --- an asset or an albatross for those Republicans? How does an often-polarised US media affect politics? And what is likely to occur in the 2012 campaign?

Have a listen: it may be the only chat on US politics this month to bring in the significance of Dancing with the Stars.

Listen to the interview....

Tuesday
Nov302010

Egypt Elections: The Official US Statement "Reports Give Us Cause for Concern"

From the State Department:

Reports from domestic civil society monitors, candidate representatives, and government officials on the conduct of yesterday’s elections give us cause for concern. We are disappointed by reports in the pre-election period of disruption of campaign activities of opposition candidates and arrests of their supporters, as well as denial of access to the media for some opposition voices. We are also dismayed by reports of election-day interference and intimidation by security forces. These irregularities call into question the fairness and transparency of the process. We continue to believe that allowing international observers to monitor and freely report on elections, a normal practice in the region and around the world, is very important in building public confidence in a fair and open election.

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Nov302010

Egypt Watch: Latest on the Parliamentary Elections

For previous updates on the election, see our Sunday-Monday LiveBlog and our video collection:

2110 GMT: Security sources say 16 people died and more than 100 were injured during Sunday's elections. They claim the victims died from heart attacks, diabetic coma. and fights.

2100 GMT: In the Upper Egyptian city of Qena, hundreds of people gathered today in front of an administrative building of the governorate to protest the alleged rigging of the vote against independent candidate Alnumeiry Rashwan in the city of Niqada.

Streets around the governorate’s administrative complex were closed and the city was put under tight security.

In Niqada, two candidates of the ruling National Democratic Party are in a run-off.

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Nov302010

The Latest from Iran (30 November): Life Beyond Wikileaks

2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Nasim Soltanbaygi has been sentenced to six years in prison.

2005 GMT: Strike a (Nuclear) Pose. Back from a break to find President Ahmadinejad carrying out his standard approach --- agree to talks with the "West" but try to establish a position of strength by denouncing the "West" --- in a speech in Sari in northern Iran.

With discussions confirmed with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) in Geneva on 6-7 December, the President charged, "While the Tehran negotiations [with Brazil and Turkey] were underway, you passed an illegal resolution against the Iranian nation and today you insist on continuing negotiations."

Ahmadinejad said is always ready to enter nuclear negotiations with the West as long as Iran's rights are respected, advising the negotiating side to put away its "tyrannical" attitude.

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Nov302010

Wikileaks-Iran Document: "Death to Khamenei" --- The Inside Line on the Post-Election Situation, Tehran's Politicians, Nuclear Talks, & US Hikers

"The biggest 'game changer' had been this past summer's presidential elections. The events were causing backlash from much of the population. Parents and grandparents were saying that they do not want their children to be forced to experience the same Iran that they, themselves, have been living under for the last 30 years. For the first time, one can see "kill Khamenei" and "death to Khamenei" scrawled on walls in Tehran. These direct challenges to Khamenei's authority are new and significant. Additionally, XXX expects that the population was disillusioned by the overwhelming fraud in the elections and many will not vote in the future."

EA correspondents believe this may be one of the valuable documents --- for intelligence and analysis --- to come out of the Wikileaks release so far. In December 2009, a European diplomat, who had recently left an ambassador's post in Iran, spoke to American officials about the 2009 election, Iran's internal situation, and the nuclear talks.

Each paragraph of this cable is filled with information and insight on post-election Iran, much of which is still relevant today.

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Nov302010

US-Turkey Video & Transcript: Foreign Minister Davutoglu Visits Hillary Clinton

Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu pays a visit to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday. No details here --- the meeting was overshadowed by the WikiLeaks affair, which took over Clinton's later statement (see separate entry). However, both officials were keen to show that the leak of the documents, in which US officials said some less than flattering things about Davutoglu.

And not hard to guess that talks with Iran, which begin on 5 December and in which Turkey is playing a key role as broker, were high on the agenda....

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Nov302010

Wikileaks Video & Transcript: Hillary Clinton "Not Just an Attack on America, But Also on The International Community"

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to the press on Monday afternoon:

CLINTON: I want to take a moment to discuss the recent news reports of classified documents that were illegally provided from United States Government computers.

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Nov302010

New WikiLeaks On Turkey: Snubbing the Opposition, Suspecting the Military, Warning about Iran

The Main Opposition: "No More than a Bunch of Elitist Ankle-Biters"

The cable, sent 30 December 2004 and titled “Erdoğan and the AK Party after Two Years in Power: Trying to Get a Grip on Themselves, on Turkey, on Europe,” reports not only about the Justice and Development Party (AKP) but also about the main opposition party (CHP). The CHP is called “no more than a bunch of elitist ankle-biters” and claimed as one of the reasons why there is no serious alternative to Prime Minster Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

Eric Edelman, then the US ambassador to Turkey, adds: “The AKP’s lack of cohesion as a party and lack of openness as a government is reflected in the range of murky, muddled motives for wanting to join the EU we have encountered among those AKPers who say they favor pursuing membership...or at least the process.”

Click to read more ...

Monday
Nov292010

Egypt Video Special: Proof of Violence and Fraud in the Elections?

The videos, posted on Sunday and today, of conflict and possible vote manipulations in Egypt's Parliamentary elections:

Alleged vote manipulation in Fayoum:

Click to read more ...