Iran Election Guide

Donate to EAWV





Or, click to learn more

Search

Entries in Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (73)

Sunday
Oct162011

Iran Analysis: Sometimes A Plot is a Drug Deal Gone Wrong (Porter)

Sketch of Manssor Arbabsiar at Court HearingIn the [US] complaint, the closest to a semblance of evidence that Arbabsiar sought help during that first meeting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador is the allegation, attributed to the DEA informant, that Arbabsiar said he was "interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia". 

Among the "other things" was almost certainly a deal on heroin controlled by officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Three Bloomberg reporters, citing a "federal law enforcement official", wrote that Arbabsiar told the DEA informant he represented Iranians who "controlled drug smuggling and could provide tons of opium".

Click to read more ...

Friday
Oct142011

Iran 6-Point Analysis: Obama and the Regime Walk Tightropes Over the Plot


There is an important conclusion which goes far beyond any assessment of the Plot. With this response, the US has thrown back the attempt by President Ahmadinejad to renew discussions on Iran's nuclear programme, expressed in a series of public signals in New York last month. 

For now, the Americans will be using stick, stick, and more stick not only over the nuclear issue --- which is no longer the leading symbol for US-Iran relations --- but over co-operation rather than political conflict in the region and beyond. If there is going to be any carrot of direct talks with Tehran, it will only follow the region's self-humbling with an admission of guilt for The Plot.

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Oct122011

The Latest from Iran (12 October): A Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador?

See also Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?
Iran Feature: 10 Questions About the "Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador to US"
Iran Document: The Formal Complaint over "Plot to Kill Saudi Ambassador to US"
Iran Document: US Account of the "Plot to Murder the Saudi Ambassador to Washington"



Attorney General Eric Holder and Director of FBI Robert Mueller set out the allegations of the Iran-backed plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US


1810 GMT: Space Watch. Sad news from Iran --- the monkey died.

Last week, we reported that Iran had indefinitely postponed plans to send a live monkey into space, without giving any reasons. Hamid Fazeli, head of Iran's Space Organisation, said, "One cannot give a set date for this project and as soon as our nation's scientists announce the readiness, it will be announced."

The rest of the story came out today. Deputy Science Minister Mohammad Mehdinejad-Nouri said, "The Kavoshgar-5 rocket carrying a capsule with a live animal was launched during Shahrivar (23 August to 22 September). However, the launch was not publicised as all of its anticipated objectives were not accomplished.

Mehdinejad-Nouri insisted that the launch of a live animal into space was "strategic, and a priority".

1800 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's speech in Kermanshah today....

The Supreme Leader gave this advice to the Iranian people for Parliamentary elections: "Vote for those who are not connected to the centres of power and wealth".

A video extract of the Supreme Leader's address:

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Oct122011

Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?

Manssor ArbabsiarThe details of the story are developing, but this is the synopsis....

According to the American government, elements inside the Iranian regime were willing to pay Mexican drug dealers $1.5 Million (USD) to kill a Saudi official in the US, and possibly dozens of bystanders, potentially sparking a war that Tehran is ill-equipped to win, during a time of increased isolation in the world and the region for the Islamic Republic.

All the evidence that we currently have to evaluate this claim can be divided into two categories: the official US complaint against the alleged Iranian agent Manssor Arbabsiar, and common sense.

The common sense answer is that this is a preposterous story, Iran would have nothing to gain and everything to lose from this act.

The complaint says that the US Attorney General has detailed and elaborate documentation that explains allegations which, at this moment, are general and lack corroboration.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Sep162011

WikiLeaks & Iran Special (June 2009): Brother of Supreme Leader's Military Advisor "The Election Was a Political Coup"

Released in this month's mass "drop" of US documents by WikiLeaks, this may be the most explosive document I have seen about the disputed 2009 Iranian Presidential Election. That is not just because of the content --- a graphic description of an election stolen under the direction of a member of the Supreme Leader's office (his son, Mojtaba Khamenei?) amidst a divided establishment, with the Revolutionary Guards split over support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad --- but because of the support.

The claims are not made by a foreign agency or by the Iranian opposition. For the first time, they come from a source close to the highest levels of the regime. It is the brother of the military advisor to the Supreme Leader who outlines:

1. The election was a "political coup", with disruption of Mir Hossein Mousavi's organisation and communications, an exaggerated vote for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and a very quick announcement of the supposed results. The fraud was orchestrated by someone "very close to the [Supreme] Leader" and involved the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

2. The decision to manipulate the election was prompted by the perceived surge of support for Mir Hossein Mousavi, especially after his performance in a 1-on-1 debate with Ahmadinejad.

3. The Revolutionary Guards split over the manipulation, with a majority opposed Jafari and the Basij militia's command.

4. The political establishment were also divided. Only a minority of conservatives supported Ahmadinejad before the vote, and he was only backed by one senior cleric, Mesbah Yazdi.

5. To bolster the opposition, which had turned out in the hundreds of thousands (millions?) the previous day in Tehran, the US should promote a message of human rights and should not recognise Ahmadinejad.


THE ORIGINAL DOCUMENT

¶1. (S) Summary: Syed Salman Safavi, brother of ex-IRGC commander and the Supreme Leader's military advisor Rehman Safavi, on June 16 told London Iran Watcher (Poloff) and a small group of diplomats that "a majority" of leaders within the government of Iran and the IRGC want the United States, while continuing to avoid interference in Iran, to continue and even strengthen its public messages on human rights, so as to support popular protests in Iran and prevent any consolidation of Ahmedinejad's electoral win. Safavi said "a majority" of the IRGC have split from the Basij and from IRGC commander Jafari over the manipulation and aftermath of the June 12 elections. He added that a person he "cannot name, very close to the Supreme Leader," and "working in the Leader's office," conceived and ordered engineering of the election and of attempted suppression which has followed. Safavi claimed no senior clergy other than Mousavi in fact support Ahmedinejad. Safavi offered no compromise solution among contending parties in Iran, and indicated throughout that either Moussavi or Ahmedinejad would be politically vanquished. He explicitly played down the prospect of a "civil war" raised by a European interlocutor. End summary.

Click to read more ...

Monday
Sep122011

Iran Snapshot: Revolutionary Guards v. Press TV (Azarmehr)

"Press TV...has a well equipped office in London, with several English reporters and analysts in its employment, including the former UK MP, George Galloway, who is receiving a huge salary, should have counter acted similarly and covered the UK protests more extensively as well as provided ideological leadership to the protesters.  Had Press TV done this,  not only it would have avenged the British government's role during the 2009 seditions but it would have also provided a pro-active offensive attack in the Soft War against Britain."

Click to read more ...

Monday
Sep052011

Iran Snapshot: So How Does the Supreme Leader Spend His Day? (Farahabadi)

In the interview, the Supreme Leader's bodyguard says, ”After the morning prayer, he goes hiking three times a week and walks uphill for about 45 to 60 minutes, spending about 30 to 45 minutes on the way back."

On some days when the hiking takes place at a more distant location, the Ayatollah carries out his prayers on his way to the hike location. Shahpasandi also mentioned the issues that the guards faced when the leader was on his hike: “We cannot use the same mountain for the hikes, as the enemy can find this out to hurt us. He uses any heights or hill in/around Tehran, from the Bibishahr in Rey to the northern hills of Tehran, such as Velenjak or Darband. There is no exclusive hill to which we go. There are two, three exclusive places we go to,”.

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Sep012011

Latest from Iran (1 September): A Defiant Mehdi Karroubi Found

1445 GMT: Environment Watch. Hojatoleslam Gholamreza Hassani, the Friday Prayer leader of Orumiyeh, has suddenly taken notice of the crisis of Lake Orumiyeh: he warned in his Eid ul-Fitr address that the lake will dry up in four years and that people's demands to deal with the situation are leagal and righteous.

An EA Correspondent notes sharply, "I guess Hassani got orders from the Supreme Leader's office to calm down the situation."

1435 GMT: Cartoon of Day. Maya Neyestani presents his vision of the drying-up of Iran's largest lake, Lake Orumiyeh, turning to salt because of drought, dams, misguided irrigation, and development:

Click to read more ...

Saturday
Aug202011

Iran Feature: Assessing Supreme Leader v. Ahmadinejad 

We post this article by Afrooz Mahdavi, writing in the US journal The Nation, in part because it offers an overview of the complexity of the conflict within Iran --- involving the Supreme Leader, President Ahmadinejad, conservative/principlist factions, the Revolutionary Guards, and the reformists and being waged on economic as well as political fronts.

We also post it, however, because of a side story on media coverage of Iran.

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Aug042011

Iran Analysis: Thoughts on Resistance and the Green Movement (Salim/Nasiri)

In the end, it is important to note that every Iranian person is entitled to the inherent right of self-defense under international law. This right is clearly provided in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international instruments.

The uprising in Tunisia and Egypt teach us that one need not ask for permission from oppressors when fighting for fundamental transformations. It is rather the spontaneous and mass presence of civilians on the streets that can change the balance of power to the advantage of the population. These experiences also teach us that one should not direct oneself to the oppressors to guarantee fundamental rights. Instead, people should clearly recognize their strengths and potential, and pursue their struggle with self-confidence. Because where danger is, the power of salvation also grows.

Click to read more ...

Page 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 ... 8 Older Posts »