Iran Special: The Inside Story of the Nuclear Talks in Istanbul (Rozen)

See also Iran Special: Why Both Sides Shifted in Nuclear Talks --- And What Comes Next

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Europe's Catherine Ashton and Iran's Saeed JaliliOver the last three days, we have put out the analysis that 1) sanctions played a role in bringing Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme; 2) Tehran's strategy is to get an easing of those sanctions before it makes any commitment on enrichment of uranium; and 3) the Islamic Republic is concentrating on the European representatives, especially the European Union's Catherine Ashton, to achieve this by splitting them from any "hard line" of the US.

In the most detailed account of last weekend's Istanbul talks so far, Laura Rozen of Al Monitor narrates the story of how the discussions almost collapsed while supporting our interpretation of the Iran's hopes, fears, and manoeuvres:

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New details on the Iran nuclear talks in Istanbul this weekend, which were largely touted as being "positive", now show the meeting had, in fact, deteriorated. 

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Iran Special: Why Both Sides Shifted in Nuclear Talks --- And What Comes Next (Dalton)

See also Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks --- The Effectiveness of Sanctions, The Effectiveness of Iran's Uranium Enrichment

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Each side moved some way. Earlier each had escalated in the hope of bringing extra pressure to bear to shift any negotiations their way. The Iranians started 20% enrichment, and then moved it from exposed Natanz to safer Fordow, underlining the perils for the Six in delaying a move to a more flexible and hence constructive position. And ever-tighter financial sanctions and the partial oil embargo appear to have led Iran to moderate its defiance and allow itself the option of a change of policy.

It will be tough turning these preliminary moves into a deal. The first requirement for the Six is to recognize in practise that distrust is two-way. They must be seen to negotiate in good-faith on nuclear issues and not to hold regime change up their sleeves.

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Iran Nuclear Snapshot: How the US Media Missed the Important Story About the Talks

US newspapers, recapping the failure of the discussions on uranium enrichment in Istanbul, seem to be oblivious to the core issue.

We reported yesterday, drawing from information from Reuters, that the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) appear to have put a much tougher proposal to Iran than the offer in October 2009, which led to weeks of negotiations before stalling.

In the talks 15 months ago, the 5+1 asked that Tehran send 60% of its low-enriched uranium, which is about 3.5% quality, to Russia and France --- later Russia and Turkey --- for processing. In this weekend's discussions, the 5+1 proposed that Iran send about 90% of its low-enriched uranium abroad. In addition, Iran would have to send all or almost all of its 20% quality uranium, which it began producing last year, to other countries.

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Iran Journalism Special: Protecting the Nuclear Talks from Lady Ashton's Cleavage

Forget all the chatter about weapons, uranium stocks, and "break-out" capability at the nuclear discussions in Istanbul between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia).

The clear-and-present danger was the chest of Lady Catherine Ashton, the head of the 5+1 delegation.

It was the newspaper Iran, confronted with a picture of Ashton and her Iranian counterpart, Saeed Jalili, that saw the threat of cleavage. However, thanks to their quick-working editors and PhotoShop, the mutually assured moral destruction of the original photograph (right) was averted:

The Latest from Iran (23 January): Back to the Domestic

1745 GMT: Where's Ali? Today the Supreme Leader paid surprise visits to the families of two assassinated Iranian scientists, Masoud Alimohammadi and Majid Shahriari.

1735 GMT: The Nuke Talks. Teymoor Nabili at Al Jazeera English picks up on our analysis, posted in a separate entry, of the key reason for failure at the Istanbul discussions on uranium enrichment and how it was missed by the US media.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Nuke Talks? What Nuke Talks?

While discussions started in the morning and continued late last night, "Western" broadcasters and the press --- with a couple of notable exceptions --- were silent after CNN correspondent Ivan Watson got the day started with the incisive report, "On eve of Iran nuke talks,diplomats from P5+1 & Iranian negotiator all sat at same table for dinner hosted by Turks in Ottoman palace."

There is more substance this morning in a report from Steven Erlanger in The New York Times, based on unnamed "Western diplomats", that the late-night sessions was "tense and even acrimonious".

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