Iran Election Guide

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Saturday
May262012

Bahrain Live Coverage: UN Human Rights Council Sends Message to Regime

Friday's statement by the President of the United Nations Human Rights Council, Laura Dupuy Lasserre

See also Bahrain Special: Preaching Religious Tolerance, Practicing Religious Discrimination


1306 GMT: Claimed footage of police mobilising and using tear gas in Alma'ameer on Friday night, after a march of youth through the village:

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Saturday
May262012

Iran Snap Analysis: Propaganda, Negotiations, and the Economic Ties That Bind

Iran's media outlets and spokesmen are putting out the message that it is the US and Europe, not the Islamic Republic, who are economically weak --- this, rather than a genuine desire for agreement, is why Washington and allies are pursuing the nuclear talks. However, the argument is propaganda, not assessment, leaving the important question whether Tehran's officials actually believe the illusions of their rhetoric.

If they do, then they may be in for an awakening as they go to Moscow on 18-19 June. Given the economic difficulties within Iran, which cannot be masked by rose-coloured proclamations, and the European Union's cut-off of Iranian oil imports from 1 July, US and European governments believe they have the upper hand. Having planned for alternative supplies to cover the drop in oil taken from Tehran, they can afford to play the game long. It is far from certain that the Islamic Republic can do so.

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Saturday
May262012

Bahrain Special: Preaching Religious Tolerance, Practicing Religious Discrimination

Bahrain Shia pray at the site of a demolished mosque, 24 December 2011


The historic and continued discrimination against Shia citizens in Bahrain is regarded by many as institutionalised sectarianism, an opinion buttressed by the Al-Bandar report. Serious accusations have been leveled at the regime by NGOs, foreign governments, and the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry, but little to nothing has been done by the regime to address political, institutional, and structural causes, enabling the views which guided such policy and practice to remain intact.

There is often a notable disconnect between the Bahrain regime's rhetoric and the reality of its actions. Indeed, it is the role of the public relations firms paid millions to market a fantasy version of the island Kingdom to cover up this disconnect. However, this latest attempt for a vision of Bahrain as a modern, reforming state is remarkable in its audacity, and --- given the events at home, rather the presentation abroad --- more than a little chilling in what it perhaps purports to achieve.

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Friday
May252012

Syria, Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: More than 50 Die in Houla; A Presidential Run-Off in Cairo

Saturday's Live Coverage has now been moved to the top of the homepage....
Friday
May252012

Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Waiting for a Presidential Outcome

2103 GMT: Syria. According to the Local Coordinating Committees, today's death toll has risen to 51, with at least 40 killed in Houla, Homs (see previous updates).

2054 GMT: Egypt. It was messy, it was long awaited, it was ovedue, it's going to be disappointing to some, but it's hard to argue that it isn't historic. There are the results of the first presidential election in Egypt:

1. Mursi 5,553,097 (25.30 per cent)

2. Shafiq 5,210,978 (23.74 per cent)

3. Sabbahi 4,739,983 (21.60 per cent)

4. Abul-Fotouh 3,936,264 (17.93 per cent)

5. Moussa 2,407,837 (10.97 per cent)

As we predicted earlier, the results will trigger a runoff election between the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi and Ahmed Shafiq, a former air force commander and Mubarak's last Prime Minister.

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Friday
May252012

Egypt Opinion: A Reminder After the Presidential Vote "The Revolution Lives"

Democracy is here to stay. It may seem like it's not working right now, but it's the first semi-free presidential election ever. Give this democracy time to take up roots, to dominate, to become the only way of governance acceptable to all. 

In time, the frightened generation of cowering acceptance will wither away. The children of today will become parents and when the time comes, all of them --- not just some of them --- will join hands with the children they have raised to respect reform, human rights, and democracy. They will continue to go to the polls, not to enshrine the obsolete faces of power but to improve the future beyond those faces.

Respect, Tahriris, respect.

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Friday
May252012

The Latest from Iran (25 May): On to The "Last Chance" Nuclear Talks in Moscow

Nikahang Kowsar on "time" and the Supreme Leader after the Baghdad nuclear talks

See also Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next
Iran Document: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After Baghdad Talks
The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad


1803 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Journalist Scott Peterson has a telling follow-up quote from an Iranian diplomat who was speaking with him throughout the Baghdad talks, "I think [they were] a complete failure, in terms of content. The more they talk, the worse it gets."

Peterson's description makes clear that a tough opening proposal by the 5+1 Powers did not include a reference to easing of sanctions or a recognition of the level of enrichment that would be acceptable inside Iran.

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Friday
May252012

Canada Analysis: Almost 700 People Arrested in Quebec as Right to Protest Curbed --- Will the Message Spread?

Tens of thousands march in Montreal on Thursday


In Quebec, we are beginning to see the anger of younger people realising they will not have the same opportunities that were offered an older generation --- advantages which that older generation, or the elite of it, is protecting through its positions in power.

Perhaps that anger will stay confined to Quebec, as a peculiarity of the politics in that province. Then again, maybe not.

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Friday
May252012

Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next

Iran Delegation at Baghdad TalksWe are in the political and diplomatic equivalent of the game of "chicken", in which "two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash".

Do the US and Europe let up on the accelerator on pressure? Does the Islamic Republic turn away? Or are both sides willing to risk the crash, because "if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a chicken"?

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Thursday
May242012

Iran Special: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After E3+3 Talks

See also The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad


The E3+3 (sometimes known as the 5+1 Powers) talks with Iran about its nuclear program have ended in Baghdad. The parties have agreed to meet in Moscow on 18-19 June to continue the discussions. The statement of the European Union's Catherine Asthon:

Having held in-depth discussions with our Iranian counterparts over two
days --- both in full plenary sessions and bilaterals --- it is clear that we
both want to make progress, and that there is some common ground. However,
significant differences remain. Nonetheless, we do agree on the need for
further discussion to expand that common ground.

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