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Tuesday
Apr102012

The Latest from Iran (10 April): Talks in Istanbul, Challenges to Ahmadinejad at Home

A young woman holds up a sign of protest during a visit by President Ahmadinejad to Bandar Abbas, "We, the Youth, are Unemployed"

See also Iran Analysis: A 4-Point Beginner's Guide to the Nuclear Talks
The Latest from Iran (9 April): No Agreement to Nuclear Talks in Turkey...Yet


2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Blogger Davood Bahmanabadi has been released on bail after 140 days in Evin Prison.

2000 GMT: Parliament v. President. Back to our opening story of the day (see 0605 GMT) and the Parliamentary pressure on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad....

Fifteen MPs have asked Speaker of Parliament Larijani to summon the President to the Majlis to report on "problems" in the first phase of subsidy cuts, launched in December 2010, and plans for the second phase. Ahmadinejad will also be queried about support for production in the private production sector, and inflation.

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Tuesday
Apr102012

Syria Document: "Executions by Syrian Security Forces and Pro-Government Militias" (Human Rights Watch)

Bodies in Taftanaz, 5 April 2012The Summary of a 23-page report by Human Rights Watch, "In Cold Blood: Executions by Syrian Security Forces and Pro-Government Militias", released on Monday:

Syrian security forces have summarily executed scores, and possibly hundreds, of civilians and opposition fighters during their intensified offensive on cities and towns since December 2011.

This report is based on more than 30 interviews with witnesses to executions whom Human Rights Watch interviewed in person or over the phone. It documents the involvement of Syrian forces and pro-government shabeeha militias in summary and extrajudicial executions of defecting soldiers, opposition fighters, and opposition supporters, as well as civilians who appeared to have had no part in the confrontation with the authorities other than being residents of opposition strongholds.

In this report we regard as extrajudicial executions the Syrian security forces’ killing of people whom they were detaining or otherwise controlling at the time of the killing and who posed no conceivable threat to them. Hundreds of other Syrians have died as a result of Syrian government forces’ artillery attacks on residential areas, sniper fire, and denial of medical assistance.

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Tuesday
Apr102012

Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Deadline Passes as 160 Die

2020 GMT: Back from a development break to find that today's deathtoll in Syria has reached 101, according to the LCCS. The Deir Balbaa district of Homs suffered the hardest hit, but the deaths were distributed as follows:

56 in Homs, 22 martyrs in Hama, 12 martyrs in Idlib, 6 martyrs in Daraa, 3 martyrs in Aleppo, 1 martyr in Harasta in Damascus Suburbs and 1 martyr in Deir Ezzor.

At this late hour, the LCCS also reports that the Assad military is raiding Qa'alat al Madiq, in Hama province.

So, on the day that withdrawal was supposed to start, there has been an escalation in Homs and Hama, a continuation of the campaigns against Idlib and Daraa provinces, and though Aleppo suffered far fewer action than previous days, it too is reporting casualties at the hands of the regime.

A friend of EA's quips that every time Kofi Annan speaks, Assad seems to kill a few dozen people, so for the sake of all of Syria we should hope that Annan gives up his mission of peace.

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Tuesday
Apr102012

Iran Analysis: A 4-Point Beginner's Guide to the Nuclear Talks

After days of last-minute fencing --- reflecting both the tensions of diplomacy and the tensions within the Iranian political system --- Tehran finally agreed on Monday to the start of nuclear discussions in Istanbul. Iran's representatives will sit down with those of the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) on Saturday to consider the future of Tehran's uranium enrichment.

The theatrical dispute over location, which started when Iran pulled back last week from Turkey as the host of the talks, ended with the declaration that Istanbul's opening meeting would be followed by another round of discussions in Baghdad.

At one level, that's a face-saving arrangement. The Islamic Republic had boxed itself in with its posture that Turkey --- which has been a diplomatic partner of Tehran, which had been vital in working with Iran for a possible agreement in 2010, but which had angered some in the regime with its position on the Syrian crisis --- was no longer acceptable as the venue. The Iranians (and by this, I primarily mean the Supreme Leader) either had to take this pose all the way to the collapse of discussions even before they started, or accept that it was the Istanbul way or no way for the negotiations.

At another level, however, the Baghdad add-on is a tip-off from the Islamic Republic to the US and European powers not to expect an immediate meeting of minds in Turkey. If there is to be an agreement, it will have to come through lengthy talks producing compromise, rather than an Iranian concession to sanctions and other pressure, and an arrangement not only respecting but highlighting the Islamic Republic's sovereignty. A meeting in Iraq is symbolic of that desire --- the Iranians know that Washington is suspicious of Baghdad's political leanings towards Tehran, so the US would have to make a concession in entering that diplomatic territory.

At the same time, the setting-out of not just one but two sets of talks --- albeit with those in Baghdad on an unspecified date, only to be confirmed at the end of Istanbul --- raises the question as to whether either side will put a substantial offer on the table this week or whether each will fence for position, trying to get the other to tip off their negotiating hand and even give way on it.

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Monday
Apr092012

Turkey Live Coverage (9 April): Strong Language and Diplomacy Over Syria, Iran, and Kurdistan

1840 GMT: Co-chairman of Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), Selahattin Demirtas says:

If Prime Minister wants to talk about the Kurdish problem, he can talk anything with BDP, including education in mother language, the new constitution, constitutional citizenship and legal amendments. 

However, Prime Minister's problem has nothing to with Kurdish people's rights and freedom. Prime Minister always wants to talk about the armed conflict. The problem in his head is only the problem of arms.

1825 GMT: Turkey's famous columnist Nuray Mert writes about Ankara's plans on the Kurdish issue within the context of the Syrian crisis. Mert agrees with our snap analysis so far, arguing that Ankara is paying attention to the structure of the Syrian opposition due to its fear of facing a stronger Kurdish presence in Syria.

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Monday
Apr092012

The Latest from Iran (9 April): No Agreement to Nuclear Talks in Turkey...Yet

IRAN AGREES TO 1ST ROUND OF NUCLEAR TALKS IN ISTANBUL, 2ND ROUND TO FOLLOW IN BAGHDAD (SEE 1000 GMT)

See also Iran Special: Spreading (and Understanding) Nuclear Confusion in Tehran
The Latest from Iran (8 April): We Love Nuclear Talks, We Love Them Not


1655 GMT: Central Bank Watch. Mehr claims that Mahmoud Bahmani, the head of the Central Bank, resigned after the Central Bank's multi-billion dollar cash withdrawal from Iran's financial institutions, but the Government, through 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi refused it.

Mehr also publishes parts of the order from Rahimi to the Central Bank to withdraw the money "without delay".

1635 GMT: Press Watch. Hojatoleslam Mohammad Reza Zaeri, the editor of Kheimeh News, has told a conference, "No one dares to say a word for fear of the judiciary....Instead of analysts, we raise sycophants because the judiciary arrests critical journalists."

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Monday
Apr092012

Iran Special: Spreading (and Understanding) Nuclear Confusion in Tehran

UPDATE 1000 GMT: State news agency IRNA announces that the Islamic Republic and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) have agreed to the opening round of nuclear talks in Istanbul on Saturday, followed by a second round of talks in Baghdad.

IRNA says the compromise between the US-European choice of Istanbul and Iran's preference for Iraq was agreed between Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and the European Union's foreign policy representative Catherine Ashton. It claims the Supreme National Security Council confirmed the arrangement in a meeting this morning.

According to IRNA, the date of the Baghdad talks will be announced at the end of the Istanbul discussions.

Meanwhile, another example of mixed messages....

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Monday
Apr092012

Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Deadlines of Diplomacy and Death

2049 GMT: According to the latest tally by Syrian activist network LCCS, 160 have been killed today nationwide, including:

"...at least 40 women and children, and 8 Free Syrian Army members. 52 in Homs, 45 in Aleppo, 36 in Hama, 16 in Idlib, 6 in Damascus Suburbs, 2 in Kilis Refugee Camp in Turkey, 1 in Deir Ezzor,1 in Hassakeh and 1 in Saidaa Daraa.

However, since this tally new reports of death have continued to come in to the LCCS. The latest report is that regime forces killed 5 police officers when they refused to fire on civilians in a small town between Damascus and the Golan Heights (map).

The deaths reported today show that the regime appears to be making concerted efforts to crackdown against protests near its borders with Turkey and Lebanon in advance of tomorrow's UN ceasefire deadline.

2040 GMT: The Danish ambassador to Bahrain has been denied access to Abdulhadi AlKhawaja, a Danish citizen and political prisoner who is enduring his 61st day of hunger strike.

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Monday
Apr092012

War on Terror Special: How Britain's Rendition Sent "Suspects" to Qaddafi's Libya (Cobain)

Fatima Bouchar's case is different from the countless other renditions that the world has learned about over the past few years, and not just because she was one of the few female victims.

Documents discovered in Tripoli show that the operation was initiated by British intelligence officers, rather than the masked Americans or their superiors in the US. There is also some evidence that the operation may have been linked to a second British-initiated operation, which saw two men detained in Iraq and rendered to Afghanistan. Furthermore, the timing of the operation, and the questions that Bouchar's husband and a second rendition victim say were subsequently put to them under torture, raise disturbing new questions about the secret court system that considers immigration appeals in terrorist cases in the UK – a system that the government has pledged to extend to civil trials in which the government itself is the defendant.

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Monday
Apr092012

Bahrain Opinion: An Appeal for Abdulhadi Alkhawaja

UPDATE 1445 GMT: An open letter to King Hamad of Bahrain is currently collecting signatures. It will be delivered to the Bahrain Embassy in London by close of business Tuesday. The letter can be read and signed via an entry in the Comment is Free section of The Guardian.


This is Abdulhadi AlKhawaja. He is a leading Bahrain human rights activist currently serving a life sentence. He has just begun the 61st day of a hunger strike.

By the time you read this, he might be dead.

If Mr AlKhawaja dies, it will be a monumental tragedy for Bahrain, from which the country may not recover. But more than that. If Mr AlKhawaja dies, terms like "international community" and "universal human rights" will be revealed to be little more than self-serving niceties.

There is time --- just --- to avoid this.

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