Bahrain Special: The Air Show, the "Black Smoke" Campaign, and the Dark Arts of Regime Propaganda

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The public relations campaign in Bahrain is a fierce and increasingly ugly one, which brings in a multitude of competing interests seeking to frame the situation for their own purposes. For regime supporters working to spread a certain message to the West, it is about obfuscating any apparent excesses by the monarchy and their forces and amplifying the alleged threat posed by the opposition, using sectarian rhetoric both for Bahrainis and expatriates.

What is particularly troubling about the regime's manipulation of the "black smoke" campaign is its possible links to more nefarious purposes, connecting propaganda, targeted at the Shia community, with violence.

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The Latest from Iran (20 January): Grim Times in Shiraz

1935 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. Deputy Minister of Industry Mohammad Ali Zeyghami has assured that Iran's warehouses are full of goods, people should not worry, and imports are backed by Central Bank currency.

1925 GMT: Friday Prayer with a Twist. Lots of Ayatollah Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari's Friday Prayer in Tabriz was the standard rhetoric, for example, the President's South American tour and Occupy Wall Street weakening the US, but he had a twist for the crowd: he harshly attacked the Central Bank for the currency turmoil.

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Syria Special: The State of the Uprising --- The Insurrection

Soldiers of the Free Syrian Army prepare to do battle with regime forces in Zabadani on 16 January --- that night, the bulk of the regime's military withdrew from the town

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No, the Assad regime is not on the verge of collapse. And no, these victories will not likely be permanent. The President's military has not yet unleashed the fury of its air power. However, the events of this week prove that the Free Syrian Army is gaining significant momentum, and at least for the moment the regime does not appear to have a coherent strategy to deal with this the surge. Instead, its withdrawal from the two towns only likely to embolden the opposition.

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: From Defection to Insurrection

2156 GMT: Bahraini human rights activist Said Yousif Almuhafda shares two videos, which he has described as "foreign mercenaries attacking ladies with soundbombs in manama for no reason." We're not able to confirm any of those claims, and the quality of the video makes it difficult to determine what exactly is happening.

This video, however, we can confirm was taken earlier, giving a clear impression of the size of the protest rally earlier today. Though this rally was peaceful, reports of police disrupting protests with teargas and beatings have lasted well into the night:

2136 GMT: The US State Department is preparing to close it's embassies in Syria. According to the Washington Post,

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Syria 1st-Hand: Lifelong Dissident al-Labwani "I am Seeing My Long-Time Dreams Come True"

One of Syria's most prominent dissidents, who worked for years against the Assad family regime, stepped out of prison two months ago to discover that his country was aflame with the revolution he long hoped for.

Jailed since 2005, Kamal al-Labwani had heard hints about what was happening on the outside the past year from visitors and even from guards. But prison authorities kept him and other prisoners under an information blackout — no newspapers or TV news over the past 10 months when hundreds of thousands of Syrians were taking to the streets nearly daily despite a relentless and bloody crackdown, demanding President Bashar Assad's ouster.

So he was stunned to see the full extent of the revolt when he was freed in November as part of an amnesty Assad's regime ordered as a reform gesture.

"I am seeing my long-time dreams come true, even better. For years, I dreamt of revolution, change. I was astonished to see it all happening," the 54-year-old al-Labwani told The Associated Press this week in the Jordanian capital Amman, his voice welling with emotion.

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Bahrain Analysis: Between Reform and Stagnation (Fakhro/Ulrichsen)

An opposition rally in Zinj in Bahrain on Thursday night

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The regime – and the country at large - are at a crossroads as the first anniversary of the February 14 uprising approaches.. The report of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry BICI has neither provided the closure the ruling family hoped for, nor satisfied the expectations of the political and popular opposition. The continuing violence has hardened positions on all sides and reinforced the absence of trust and goodwill necessary to any political settlement. The emergence of radicalised splinter groups means it is no longer possible to speak of a ‘regime-opposition’ dichotomy. Elements of the opposition are growing more violent, while extremist groups calling on the regime to crush the opposition once and for all have intensified in recent weeks. Competing narratives have diverged sharply since BICI, illustrating the chasm that has opened up where the moderate middle used to be.

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The "Free Syrian Army" Makes An Impression

Women and children rally in "free" Zabadani in Syria last night (see 0740 GMT)

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2110 GMT: The Local Coordinating Committees of Syria have posted graphic, and leaked, pictures of Hussam Ahmed Naboulsy, who was reportedly tortured during interrogations in a prison in Syria after being arrested several weeks ago. Several sources close to EA have said that they believe in the validity of the report. The LCCS posted this statement:

He wasn’t charged for any crime, there are no legal cases against him. Hussam is from Banyas city and a father of 7 kids, he is facing daily all kinds of insulting, abusing and torturing. Some video clips leaked from the prison by one of the security elements that attended the investigation and filmed it. The video clips shows his face swollen, bleeding and he is daze. This records another brutal crime of the Syrian regime inside the prison while the Arab League Committee is still in Syria and supposed to be protecting people from the regime’s crimes. The Local Coordination Committees in Syria (LCC) condemning this egregious violation of the human rights and the International protocols that Syria’s government is committed to. The LCC is calling to release Hussam immediately and all the opinion detainees and carries the regime the responsibility on their safety.

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The Latest from Iran (19 January): Worried Yet?

2039 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Industry sources say Turkish refiner Tupras, planning to cut imports of Iranian oil, will meet Saudi Arabian officials this month.

Turkey imports more than 30 percent of its daily oil consumption from Iran crude.

A source estimated that Saudi Arabia could cover up to half of the Iranian imports, adding that the Turks also planning to meet with oil suppliers from Russia, Azerbaijan, and West Africa.

2003 GMT: Currency Watch. The Central Bank has issued a new warning: dollar holders without documents must deposit the money until 15 Bahman (4 February), or they will be prosecuted for money laundering.

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Bahrain Analysis: The Kingdom's "Sunni Awakening" (Gengler)

Sunni activist Mohamed Albuflasa, detained February 2010The Sunni state-vs.-Shi‘i rebel narrative, then, is not without substance. But its use as a framework for analyzing Bahraini politics, including the present impasse, obscures other important elements of the story --- even whole characters. The prevalent storyline tells little, for example, of ordinary Sunni citizens, who make up more than a third of the island’s population and are about as far removed from power as the Shi‘a. These Bahrainis have been no less decisive than the Shi‘a or the state in shaping the country’s political trajectory over the past year. Nominally pro-government, the Sunni population has functioned, perhaps unwittingly, as the foundation of the Al Khalifa monarchy, a captive ethno-religious constituency conditioned to care more for combating the perceived march of collective Shi‘i ambition than for advancing an independent political agenda.

Yet there are signs that the social forces unleashed by the uprising, and the wider Arab awakening, have made Bahraini Sunnis more cognizant of their perennial position as political counterweight --- and more resistant to it. The same grassroots movements that rose in defense of the regime in February and March are now daring to articulate reform demands of their own, albeit not yet with a coherent purpose.

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Morocco Video Feature: 4 Self-Immolations in Rabat --- Do They Matter?

Warning: Graphic Images

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While the self-immolation in December 2010 of one unemployed man in Tunisia, Mohamed Bouazizi, is now heralded as the catalyst of the Arab Spring, the self-immolation of four unemployed men in Rabat yesterday is unlikely to be noted outside Morocco.

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