The Latest from Iran (18 December): Tehran's Strategy for the Nuclear Talks

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi speaks of "positive" talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency last week

See also The Latest from Iran (17 December): Seeking Influence on Syria

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2053 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Back from an academic and media break --- including an appearance on BBC Persian --- to find the Supreme Leader's military advisor, Major General Yahya Rahim-Safavi, doing some chest-thumping: “Major powers and regional ones have no other option but to deal with Iran if they want to have a share of regional interests. The Persian Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz are influential on economic, political, and cultural issues [of the world] and are very effective from various viewpoints in the world.”

Rahim Safavi declared that Iran "will have the first say" in the Persian Gulf for "many years to come".

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Syria Live Coverage: A Battle for Hama?

2120 GMT: This is an interesting video - it claims to have been leaked by "shabiha," or at least Assad military. This video reportedly shows artillery pieces firing on the city of Zabadani, the mountain city northwest of Damascus that has essentially been bombarded for many months with hardly any interruption:

Unfortunately, without a closeup of the men, or any dialogue to analyze, it's going to be hard to verify this claim.

2045 GMT: Incredible video, reportedly taken today in Damascus - the mountain appears to be Mt. Kassioun (map), and the target East Ghouta. These could be GRAD rockets, but they could also be Type 63:

2020 GMT: On December 6th we reported that the rebels were making considerable gains near the Al-Safira military base in Aleppo (map). The problem - Al Safira could be, according to some sources, not only the largest chemical weapons depot in all of Syria, but perhaps the largest chemical weapons stockpile in the entire region.

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Turkey Analysis: How Can Ankara's "2071" Vision See the Kurdish Issue?

In the age of globalisation, Foreign Minister Davutoglu’s vision is not that of an empire through swords. Instead, Ankara's ascendancy is through soft power. And that brings in the Kurdish problem.

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US Audio Feature: Why Can't America Have Gun Control? --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

President Obama's speech in Newtown, Connecticut on Sunday

See also US Opinion: Thoughts on Gun Control and Friday's Mass Murder in Connecticut

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I have done 10 television and radio interviews today considering what happens next after last Friday's mass killing of 20 children and seven adults in Newtown, Connecticut.

The discussions have ranged across US culture, history, and politics but have often come back to the question, "Do you think the response about gun control will be different this time?"

My response:"My heart says, 'Please, God, let it be so.' My head says, 'No'."

Three of the conversations:

BBC Radio 5 Live "Your Call": The discussion starts at 06:34 --- I participated in the first 20 minutes.
BBC World Service "World Update": The item starts at 26:39.
BBC Radio Wales: The debate, which includes Rahim Kassam of the Henry Jackson Society, starts at 2:10.44.

The Latest from Iran (17 December): Seeking Influence on Syria

Iran Special Analysis: Breaking the Deadlock in the Nuclear Negotiations
The Latest from Iran (16 December): Is Tehran Ready for Concessions on Nuclear Programme?

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1551 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Turkish Front). NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has rejected the declaration by the head of Iran's armed forces, Hassan Firouzabadi, that the placement of NATO's Patriot anti-missiles sysems on Turkey's border with Syria risks a world war.

"I completely denounce these (Iranian) allegations. We have made clear right from the outset that the deployment of Patriots is a purely defensive measure," Rasmussen told a news conference after talks with Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo. "We are there to defend and protect our ally Turkey. We have no offensive intentions whatsoever."

On Saturday, Firouzabadi said, "Each one of these Patriots is a black mark on the world map, and is meant to cause a world war. They are making plans for a world war, and this is very dangerous for the future of humanity and for the future of Europe itself."

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Palestine, Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Call to Boycott Israel's Goods

One of the protests challenging the Bahraini regime in Manama today

See also Bahrain Feature: The Story of Taqi Abdulla, a US Citizen Detained by the Regime
Syria Live Coverage: Regime Warplanes Strike in Damascus for 1st Time
Sunday's Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A "Yes" --- So Far --- on the Constitution?

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2030 GMT: Egypt. The head of the Judges' Club, Hamdi Yassin, has said that members will not supervise Saturday's second phase of the referendum on the Constitution.

Yassin said the decision was due to "unfulfilled promises" by authorities that had been agreed upon before the referendum, including arrangements for the supreme referendum committee and associated sub-committees, protection of voters and judges, and banning of electioneering outside the committees.

The vast majority of the Judges' Club membership initially said they would not oversee last Saturday's first phase of the referendum.

1950 GMT: Bahrain. Prominent activist Said Yousif talks to security forces in Manama today amid protests on Martyrs Day --- soon after this photograph, Yousif was reportedly detained (Photo: Hassan Jamali/AP):

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Bahrain Feature: The Story of Taqi Abdulla, a US Citizen Detained by the Regime

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Taqi Abdulla

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The "difference" in Abdulla's case is a US citizen. This is not to say that Abdulla warrants more attention because he has a US passport, but his case illustrates Washington's reluctance to engage with the specific, day-to-day, realities for others in Bahrain. Opting for quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy, the US is seen by many as fundamentally complicit in the path of repression --- not reform --- which the regime has pursued throughout 2012.

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Iran Special Analysis: Breaking the Deadlock in the Nuclear Negotiations (Wheeler/Baker/Lucas)

Hillary Clinton's speech of 30 November, in which she spoke of the possibility of direct talks with Iran

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If the Obama Administration simply repackage the ‘stop, shut and ship’ proposal, then the stalemate will continue into its second term in the absence of major Iranian concessions.  But waiting on Iran to make the first move before offering anything more significant, and thereby dismissing in Iranian eyes what they view as prior conciliatory moves, risks poisoning still further the relationship between the West and Iran.  This scenario makes the language of ‘reciprocity’ a slogan rather than a practical policy, a signal which Tehran will view as an empty gesture masking a continuing US plan to weaken the Islamic Republic.  The Obama administration and its strongest supporters among the six, as well as Israel, are betting on sanctions so weakening their Iranian adversary that they come to the table prepared to make dramatic concessions.  If this prognosis proves unwarranted, and Tehran continues to develop its nuclear programme in ways which frighten the Western powers and especially Israel, then the subsequent resentment and mistrust will be accompanied by an increased risk of military conflict.

What we must hope, however, is that as the risks of confrontation increase, those voices calling for a new strategy will gain greater credence in the counsels of power.  The only way out of this dead-end is to make reciprocity meaningful by both sides committing themselves to actions which reassure the other and promote mutual security.  This is the real challenge behind the US invitation to enter into ‘good-faith serious negotiations.’

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Syria Live Coverage: Regime Warplanes Strike in Damascus for 1st Time

2104 GMT: A micro-blogger has collected a series of videos from the FSA offensive against Halfaya, north of Hama city (map). The city is under heavy rebel attack, as the Free Syrian Army and other units are stretching the front lines to the south. After weeks of ambushes, IED attacks, and generally picking at Assad's supply lines, it appears that the insurgents have moved into Hama province with a vengeance. If this kind of momentum can be sustained over the next few days, it could signal a further Assad military collapse, but this one just kilometers from one of the most important cities in Syria:

#Syria #Hama Rebels destroyed officers club & surround National Hospital in city of #Helfaia which is under occupation youtube.com/watch?v=dEMBOn…

— Mark (@markito0171) December 17, 2012

#Syria #Hama Rebels in #Helfaia seized T-72 tankyoutube.com/watch?v=3dWzKw… wikimapia.org/#lat=35.259858…

— Mark (@markito0171) December 17, 2012

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Syria Video Feature: Planning For the Endgame? --- Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera English's "Inside Syria"

I appeared on Al Jazeera English's Inside Syria yesterday to discuss latest developments around the question, "Is this the endgame for President Assad?" The other panellists were Ammar Waqqaf of the pro-regime Syrian Social Club and Pavel Felgenhauer, a political analyst and columnist for Russia's Novaya Gazeta.

This was a spiky discussion at times, with differences over the level of the threat to President Assad, the situation of the opposition, and Russia's assessment of whether it should now distance itself from the Syrian regime.