Syria Analysis: Have Insurgent Victories Broken The Stalemate?

Free Syrian Army soldiers inspect a destroyed tank in Jisr al Shughour in Idlib Province

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In the last week, the Free Syrian Army has won a series of victories in Idlib Province in the northwest and just outside Damascus, eroding the position of the Assad regime.

Is this the end of the story of "stalemate"?

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U.S. Politics Analysis: Is the World Less Safe under Obama, and Could Mitt Romney do Any Better?

National Public Radio recaps the key points from Mitt Romney's foreign policy speech at the Virginia Military Institute

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A real criticism of Barack Obama might be that he did not change enough. He has continued and escalated the drone war, has surged in Afghanistan, has not reset the diplomatic situation with Iran or North Korea, and has not closed Guantanamo Bay.

But Romney is not challenging any of this, because he is likely to support these measures, albeit in private rather in public statements. Instead, he is pursuing the verbal trickery of turning a "hawkish" Obama into a dove.

Whether that is effective politics, time will tell. But no one should mistake it for a realistic view of US politics.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Another Siege of Homs

2104 GMT: Syria. Parallel to the fighting between the Free Syrian Army and the regime is the relentless campaign of gunfire, shelling, and bombing that the citizens of Syria are subjected to on a daily basis by Assad forces. 140 people were killed today, according to the latest tally by the LCC, but that number will almost assuredly rise, as intense violence is reported in southern Damascus, and elsewhere across the country:

61 martyrs in Damascus and its suburbs, including 25 unidentified martyrs found between Daraya and Qadam and 10 martyrs slaughtered by knives in Deir Asafeer; 24 in Aleppo; 14 in Deir Ezzor; 13 in Homs, 11 in Idlib; 10 martyrs in Hama; 5 martyrs in Daraa; and 2 martyrs in Lattakia.

But it's not all death in Syria. This video reportedly shows a large anti-government protest tonight in Almouda, Hasakeh governorate:

2056 GMT: Syria. How significant was the FSA victory in Ma'arrat al Nouman? Significant enough that they held a victory parade with their newly captured Syrian Army vehicles:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Start of a "Decisive Battle" for Aleppo?

2225 GMT: Bahrain. We close our coverage tonight with news 17 year old Ali Hussain Neama has been shot and killed by security forces in Sadad tonight. Details are still emerging.

Said Yousif Almuhafda, Head of Monitoring at the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, tweeted the following picture of Ali:

#BahrainDeath of young boy just confirmed by MOI,ppl saying from pellet shotgun.. twitter.com/SAIDYOUSIF/sta…

— S.YousifAlmuhafda (@SAIDYOUSIF) September 28, 2012

He adds:

Riot police attacking women who went to see the 17 yo boy who was just killed #Bahrain”

— S.YousifAlmuhafda (@SAIDYOUSIF) September 28, 2012

The Ministry of Interior has confirmed the death in a tweet, referring to the incident that killed Ali as a "terrorist attack".

2054 GMT: Syria. According to the Local Coordination Committees, at least 160 people have been killed by the Assad regime so far today:

55 martyrs were reported in Aleppo; including 25 who were field executed in Rashedeen, 48 in Damascus and its Subrubs (including 10 martyrs who were field-executed in Barzeh, and 17 in Qudsaya), 20 in Deir Ezzor, 13 in Idlib, 10 in Daraa; including two people who were martyred in Damascus, 7 in Hama, 4 in Homs, 2 in Raqqa, and 1 in Lattakia.

See our note on the casualty figures put out by the LCC.

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Syria Analysis: Huge Stories, Small Headlines, and the Future of Insurgency

Insurgents use a BMP armoured vehicle to attack regime tanks in Jabal Zawiyah in Idlib Province

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This is a stalemate, but it is a corrosive one, one that constantly eats at the strength of the Assad regime, while the humanitarian crisis and threat to infrastructure grows with every exploding barrel bomb and tank shell. The "massacres" and the escalating death toll bear out the claims made by the opposition that the regime does not believe that it is winning this fight.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Double Explosion Hits Army Staff HQ in Damascus

Smoke this morning above Army Staff Headquarters in Damascus after two explosions

See also Syria 1st-Hand: The Insurgents' PR Quest for Ammunition in Aleppo
Tuesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "The Situation Has Gone from Bad to Worse"

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1820 GMT: Syria. In his address to the United Nations General Assembly, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has upheld his initiative of a four-nation contact group --- Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran --- and declared, "The bloodshed in Syria and the humanitarian crisis that has unfolded, must be stopped."

A full English-language text of the speech has been posted.

1720 GMT: Syria. Back from a long break for a business meeting to find the official casualty figure for today's double bombing near Army Staff Headquarters is six dead –-- t four security guards and two suicide bombers --- and 14 wounded.

Security has been increased in the area of the explosions with roadblocks and checkpoints. A resident said, "Most of the people who work at governmental institutions could not go to work today."

Meanwhile, the Local Coordination Committees report one of the bloodiest days in the 18-month conflict, with 290 people killed by security forces. The 162 dead in Damascus and its suburbs include a claim of 107 people slain in a mass killing in al-Thiabieh. There are also 37 killed in Deir Ez Zor Province, 26 in Homs Province, and 25 in Daraa Province.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Insurgents Attack Around Aleppo

Live Coverage has been re-titled and moved to the top of the homepage, "Double Explosion Hits Army Staff HQ in Damascus".

Syria Audio Feature: "Foreign Fighters and the Free Syrian Army" --- EA's James Miller with Monocle 24

AFP with insurgents in Aleppo on Monday

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James Miller spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily last night about the state of the insurgency in Syria, as the Free Syrian Army declares that it has moved its command inside the country and the regime claims it is facing 5000 foreign fighters.

Miller opens, "Foreign fighters are still a small percentage of the insurgency, but the number is quickly growing," before explaining the shifting patterns of the conflict.

And will the Free Syrian Army achieve a unified command? "Not any time soon."

To get to the discussion, open The Daily homepage, click on the programme for 24/9, and go to the 1:04.42 mark.

Syria Feature: Saudi Arabia v. Qatar in the Arming of the Insurgents (Abouzeid)

Disorder and distrust plague two of the rebels’ international patrons: Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The two Gulf powerhouses are no longer on the same page when it comes to determining who among the plethora of mushrooming Syrian rebel groups should be armed. The rift surfaced in August, with the alleged Saudi and Qatari representatives in charge of funneling free weaponry to the rebels clearly backing different factions among the groups — including various shades of secular and Islamist militias — under the broad umbrella that is the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

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Syria Feature: The Darayya "Massacre" and a Regime's "Slow, Steady Killing Strategy" (Los Angeles Times)

A mass grave in Darayya, August 2012

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As he hid from soldiers in a field next to his neighborhood, a young man watched as a cat wandered down a street. Suddenly, it was shot dead. That's when Zuhair noticed the sniper on a nearby roof.

But a father and son walking along the street didn't see the gunman, Zuhair said. The sniper lowered his head and peered through his scope.

He shot the boy first. As the man tried to grab his son, who looked to be about 10, he was shot as well.

The two are among a reported 700 victims of snipers, shelling and summary executions, most of them men, since forces loyal to President Bashar Assad stormed the Damascus suburb of Dariya in late August, one in a growing list of Syrian towns and villages that briefly enter the world's spotlight, only to be replaced by another one when a new mass killing is committed.

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