The Latest from Iran (9 June): Spiralling to a Nuclear Breakdown

See also Iran Interview: Rapper Shahin Najafi on His Music, the "Death Fatwa"...and Kurt Cobain
The Latest from Iran (8 June): Preparing for the Fallout

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2032 GMT: CyberWatch. Iranian police have claimed that computer experts have tracked an April cyber-attack on Ministry of Oil computers to two IP addresses in the US.

Police General Seyed Kamal Hadianfar said the US should disclose the identities of the two IPs to Iran so that the country can identify those who have embarked on the act of sabotage and file a lawsuit against them.

1649 GMT: Economy Watch. A sign of nerves that the nuclear talks are collapsing? The Tehran Stock Exchange has fallen 270 points today to 26365.

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The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Oil Squeeze

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From #SaveMaleki to the "Shoot the Apostate" Video Games
Russia Audio Feature: Moscow's Manoeuvres With Iran --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
The Latest from Iran (5 June): The House Arrests

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2028 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Hossein Alavi, a member of the student alumni group Advar Tahkim Vahdat and a supporter of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been arrested after being summoned to Zanjan’s Intelligence Bureau.

1913 GMT: Devious West Watch. Sohrab Salehi, the head of the Basij Professors Organization has asserted that, by imposing sanctions, the West wants to present the Supreme Leader as the main cause of inflation in Iran.

Look for more of this in the near-future from higher-level officials. If the nuclear talks collapse --- which I think is probable, given today's signals --- and when the European Union's cut-off of imports of Iranian oil takes effect from 1 July, the Islamic Republic's officials will need someone to break for the escalating economic tensions in Iran. Since that "someone" cannot be Ayatollah Khamenei, the "West" will have the lead role of villain.

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The Latest from Iran (4 May): Election Day Again

The Supreme Leader casting his vote today

See also The Latest from Iran (3 May): The Oil Squeeze

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1930 GMT: Elections Watch. There are no clear numbers from today's second Parliamentary elections, but Iranian media are already putting out the message of "impressive turnout".

Mehr emphasises the diversity of those voting, including "Expediency Council Chairman Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Imam Khomeini; pro-reform figure Mohammad Mousavi Khoeiniha, who is the secretary general of the Association of Combatant Clerics; and National Confidence Party deputy chief Rasul Montajabnia, who is also a key member of the Association of Combatant Clerics".

And Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi offers the inevitable proclamation that the show of domestic support for the regime will bolster it in forthcoming talks over Iran's nuclear programme.

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The Latest from Iran (30 April): Restating the Demand on Sanctions

See also The Latest from Iran (29 April): The Ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards

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2040 GMT: Labour Front. As expected, authorities have refused a permit to Iran's workers to march on May Day. Labourers instead an indoors ceremony in a hall today.

1740 GMT: Defiance of the Day. The pro-Ahmadinejad Iran newspaper declares that Presidential advisor Saeed Mortazavi, despite Parliamentary objections, is still working as head of the Social Security Fund.

MPs had threatened to impeach the Minister of Labor if Mortazavi, under fire for his role in the abuses at the Kahrizak detention centre in 2009, continued in the post. Mortazavi reportedly offered his resignation, but this was rejected by the President.

Baztab claims that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has been told that the Supreme Leader opposes impeachment of the Minister.

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The Latest from Iran (28 April): Nuclear Step Forward, Nuclear Step Back

1513 GMT: War Watch. There has been quite a flutter on the Internet over comments by the former head of Israel's internal intelligence agency Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, critising Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak over postures and policies on Iran based on "messianic feelings". Diskin said he would not trust the Israeli leaders in the event of a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear sites.

The comments should be seen in the context of a wave of recent comments by former and current Israeli military and intelligence leaders, including former head of the Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence service, Meir Dagan and current Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz, playing down talk of an imminent Iranian nuclear weapons capability and warning against the consequences of an Israeli attack (see the discussion in Comments).

Interpretation? Seeing this as a possible contest and even rift between the military and the political leadership, I would note the significant influence of the ties between the Israeli and the US military and inteligence communities. Washington's military commanders have not only been vocal this spring in their caution against an assault; they have given signals to Israeli counterparts that they would like to see the same out of West Jerusalem.

Video from The Guardian:

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The Latest from Iran (1 April): Nuclear Postures

2030 GMT: Sanctions Watch (Syrian Front). This weekend we noted the claim of US officials that an Iranian company was shipping $84 million of Syrian oil to China, evading international sanctions on Damascus.

Now the Maltese Foreign Ministry has said it is delisting the Maltese-flagged, Iranian-owned tanker allegedly carrying the crude.

The M.T. Tour loaded the 120,000 tonne cargo of light crude at the Syrian port of Tartus last weekend.

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The Latest from Iran (21 March): Manoeuvring the Sanctions

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Celebrating Despite Economic Decline and the Crackdown
Iran Opinion: A Counter-Message to Obama's Nowruz Video
Iran Video: President Obama's Nowruz Message
The Latest from Iran (20 March): Happy Nowruz

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1240 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Dissident blogger and physician Mehdi Khazali, freed on bail last weekend after a 70-day hunger strike, has thanked people for support: "I managed to get my message to the world, to the Islamic Republic's officials, and to the maraje (senior clerics)."

1030 GMT: In an interview with the German magazine Stern, President Ahmadinejad's media advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr has denied both the "failure" of the Ahmadinejad camp in the Parliamentary elections and the claim of a low turnout. He asserted that the President had proven his popularity during last week's "interrogation" in Parliament.

Javanfekr added that the West "should change its attitude" towards the Islamic Republic. He expressed confidence that Washington will not attack Iran, while saying Israel is just a puppet of the US.

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The Latest from Iran (24 February): Here a Deviant Current, There a Deviant Current

See also Iran Document & Snap Analysis: The IAEA Report on Tehran's Nuclear Programme
Iran 1st-Hand Video: A 53-Minute Look at Life, Politics, and the Economy
The Latest from Iran (23 February): Don't Panic!

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2045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Dr. Sadegh Akhoundi, associate professor in the Department of Orthodontics at Tehran University's School of Dentistry, has been arrested.

1950 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Police in Sanandaj in northwest Iran arrested dozens of people at a meeting of a mountain climbing group last Friday.

The reason for the detentions is not clear.

Since the arrests, families of those arrested have gathered daily outside the Intelligence Office for news. A source said the Intelligence Office has promised the families to release the detainees on bail of about 40 million Toman (about $2000) each.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Nuclear Postures and "War is Coming!"

The signal could not have been clearer or louder. Steve Forbes, one of America's most prominent businessmen, has used the pages of his magazine to declare, "War with Iran is Coming!"

In the heat of battle the ayatollahs may not be able to contain themselves. Iran will also attempt to have its agents carry out terrorist acts around the world, particularly in the U.S....Israel will find itself embroiled in a horrific conflict....Much as the White House might wish otherwise, the U.S. will become involved. In fact, President Obama could well respond to the conflict the way he did when he went after Osama bin Laden: give U.S. forces the green light to do whatever is necessary on water and in the air to help the Israelis. 

Having set out Armageddon, Forbes then advised, "This conflict will obviously also roil the financial markets. Best advice to investors: Don’t panic."

On Wednesday, two developments on the nuclear front guaranteed that this chatter will get louder.

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The Latest from Iran (22 February): Rafsanjani Far from Finished?

1905 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran's Statistics Center has said that the unemployment rate is 11.8%. Among 15- to 29-year-olds, the rate is 23.9%.

Unemployment is higher for women than men and in cities versus rural areas.

1715 GMT: Nuke Watch. More on the tension between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran, after Tehran restricted the movement of inspectors on a two-day visit --- a diplomat in Vienna says that the Islamic Republic asked the IAEA team to sign a document regulating their activists. They refused.

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