The Latest from Iran (8 December): Tehran to Hit New Low in Oil Exports?

See also Iran Snap Analysis: A Regime Still Worried About the Green Movement? (Yes.)
The Latest from Iran (7 December): Maintaining the Oil Squeeze

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1740 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The "hard-line" paper Kayhan, using a historical reference, has warned that leading political figures are seeking to force the Supreme Leader to "drink from the "poison chalice" and hold direct talks with the US over the nuclear issue.

The expression refers to Ayatollah Khomeini's statement when he reluctantly agreed to the punishing conditions of a cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq War in 1988.

The regime pursued "back-channel" discussions with the US in the autumn, but these appear to have come to a halt in October. Since then, Tehran has grown frustrated with an apparent failure of Washington and its allies to talk about an Iranian proposal trading enrichment of 20% uranium for sanctions, and this week Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani indicated the Islamic Republic is backing away from the idea of direct talks.

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The Latest from Iran (22 November): Ahmadinejad Benefits from Tehran's Problems Abroad

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- A Health Crisis, A Hunger Strike, and Keeping Women at Home
The Latest from Iran (21 November): The Economy? "All Is Well"

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1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabi has stopped all in-person visits in the women’s section of Evin Prison, according to opposition websites.

Kalemeh wrote that female inmates who had children were allowed to meet with them in person on Wednesday, but yesterday the prisoners were told that these visits are cancelled until further notice.

Prison authorities have informed detainees that the decision has been handed down from the prosecutor’s office and prison officials have no authority to alter it.

Up to nine women political prisoners recently went on hunger strike over their treatment, including denial of visits, and seven of them signed a statement of condolence to the family of Sattar Beheshti, a blogger killed earlier this month during interrogation in prison. The women have also expressed sympathy with detained lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, who is in the fifth week of her hunger strike.

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The Latest from Iran (7 November): Posturing on Syria

1810 GMT: Oil Watch. Demonstrating the phrase "cutting off your nose to spite your face"....<,/p>

Parliament's Energy Committee has prepared a bill to decrease crude exports by nearly one third in the current Iranian year --- from March 2012 to March 2013 --- in retaliation for international sanctions.

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Iran's oil exports have already fallen by 60% this year. The Parliamentary committee did not make clear how a further reduction of exports, and thus revenue, would benefit the Islamic Republic.

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The Latest from Iran (23 October): Ahmadinejad v. the Judiciary

Head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani refuses President Ahmadinejad's request to visit Evin Prison: "Not now! In one year you can visit this place every day!" (Cartoon: Nikahang Kowsar)

See also Iran Audio Feature: The Real Story about the "US-Iran Nuclear Talks" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Iran Feature: Which Tehran Officials Are Buying Up Turkish Gold?
The Latest from Iran (22 October): A Mysterious Currency Dealer, Real Executions

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1811 GMT: President v. Supreme Leader. Adding to today's political tension is a dispute between aides to President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei....

Ali Saeedi, the Supreme Leader's representative in the Revolutionary Guards, sparked the argument yesterday wit the assertion, "We didn’t have occult foreknowledge to know what is going through the mind of Mr. Ahmadinejad and in the future what he will want to do."

The Political Deputy of the President’s Office, Mohammad Jafar Behdad, responded that Ahmadinejad is “hundreds of times more Principlist than the likes of Mr. Saedi and is more concerned about Islam, the Revolution, and the Leader". He said that Saeedi was in no position "to announce that Ahmadinejad doesn’t act in accordance with the acceptable standards and conditions of the regime".

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The Latest from Iran (10 October): Economic Fantasy and Reality

Iran Special: The US Nuclear "Experts" at ISIS --- When Propaganda Replaces Analysis
The Latest from Iran (9 October): Triple-Digit Inflation?

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1815 GMT: Currency Watch. It looks like the Central Bank, trying to preserve foreign reserves, is restricting trade in the Iranian Rial. Reports indicate the Bank has declared that foreign currency accounts cannot be opened with Rials, but interest on the accounts will be paid in the local currency.

Meanwhile, an indication of the "real" price of gold, amidst the blackout on information. Khabar Online claims that advance sales of gold coins are trading at 14.44 million Rials (about $1200 at official rate).

That is an increase of about 11% on the "current" price, last posted on Tuesday.

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The Latest from Iran (25 September): Which is More Important --- The Ahmadinejad Show or an Economy in Crisis?

Full interview of President Ahmadinejad by CNN's Piers Morgan: "How do you feel about being Public Enemy Number One?"

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2049 GMT: Cyber Denial of the Day. Minister of Communications Reza Taghipour has said that Google is not filtered in Iran. Gmail's problems were "because of the rule of the judiciary", and "we had to observe the law".

1727 GMT: Nuclear Confusion. Yesterday we noted that Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, had confirmed --- for the first time in a public statement by an Iranian official --- that Tehran had offered to give up enrichment of 20% uranium in return for an easing of sanctions.

Now Soltanieh has denied the remark, reported by InterPress Service, “Let me tell you! I’ve taken part in no interviews about [the country’s uranium] enrichment and relevant issues with anyone in the past one month. I’ve not said such a thing."

1717 GMT: CyberWatch. Baztab writes that some government offices have installed Virtual Private Networks and filter-breakers because of the need to communicate via Gmail, blocked by authorities on Sunday.

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Iran Analysis: Daughter in Prison, Son Back in Tehran --- What Now for Ex-President Rafsanjani?

Mehdi Hashemi at immigration at a Tehran airport on Sunday night

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I doubt few people --- possibly not former President Rafsanjani, possibly not even the Supreme Leader --- have a full idea of how the politics and intimidation played out to this point and what comes next. Instead, the key figures have to make a quick re-assessment today and calculate the benefits and costs of their next steps.

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The Latest from Iran (20 June): Nuclear Talks Over, Sanctions on the Way

Claimed photograph of a memorial on Tuesday at the grave of Neda Agha Soltan, killed by a gunshot during the protests of 20 June 2009

See also Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks --- The West Looks for an Iranian Crash
Remember Iran Flashback: 20 June 2009 --- The Death of Neda...And Many Others
Middle East and Iran Audio Feature: "Oil and Politics" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Latest from #Iran (19 June): An Opening at Nuclear Talks? (No.)

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1141 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Rear Admiral Abbas Zamini has declared that Iran will soon unveil 10 new domestically-built frigates and destroyers.

The Islamic Republic's first home-constructed destroyer was launched in 2010. Another destroyer will supposedly by completed by March 2013.

0926 GMT: Oil Watch. The Japanese Parliament has approved Government guarantees on insurance for crude oil cargoes from Iran, responding to imminent European Union sanctions.

The law will take effect on June 27. It allows the Japanese government, which has succeeded in getting a waiver from U.S. financial sanctions, to provide cover of up to $7.6 billion for each tanker.

The EU sanctions, starting on 1 July, prohibit European insurance firms from covering Iran's exports.

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The Latest from Iran (15 February): The Momentum of Protest, Part 2

1905 GMT: Oil Watch. Looks like Tehran has got itself in a muddle with today's grandstanding announcements. While the Ministry of Oil is saying exports to six European countries will be cut off, Hassan Tajik, the Foreign Ministry's deputy for Western Europe, is assuring that supplies will continue.

1850 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council, has sent a note to Catherine Ashton, the foreign policy representative for the European Union, about renewed talks on Iran's nuclear programme.

A spokeswoman said Ashton is consulting with the "5+1" Powers --- the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany --- on a response.

Tehran's letter was revealed as President Ahmadinejad made the announcement that Iran could now produce fuel rods of 19.75% uranium for the Tehran Research Reactor, making medical isotopes. Ahmadinejad also said that new centrifuges at the Natanz facility have "a three-fold higher capacity" compared to older models, boosting Iran's capacity to produce 3.5% lower-enriched nuclear fuel by 50%.

1714 GMT:. Claim of the Day. MP Morteza Agha Tehrani, the head of the Unity Front list of candidates, has asserted that the Islamic Republic has become a model for the world, with even the biggest US philosophers respecting Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi --- the head of the Islamic Constancy Front --- and ceding their speaking time to him.

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The Latest from Iran (12 February): Nuclear Games, Numbers Games

1902 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. Nasim Online features the reassurance of Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi --- despite US sanctions, Iran --- with its self-sufficiency --- has become a model for Middle Eastern countries, as Tehran annoys "Western" powers.

http://www.nasimonline.ir/NSite/FullStory/News/?Id=325808

1856 GMT: Unity Watch. Prominent MP Gholam Reza Mesbahi Moghaddam has said that it is beneath Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, the head of the Unity Front, to bargain with the Islamic Constancy Front.

The Constancy Front, led by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, has held out against merger with the Unity Front because of issues over represenatives of politicians like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

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