Syria Analysis: Chemical Weapons, the US, and the Insurgency

The use of chemical weapons or their possession by the "wrong" forces, while genuinely considered a threat by US and European governments, has been used to date to justify the build-up of a multi-national base in Jordan, with training and the supply of weapons to insurgents.

The US Secretary of State, though indirectly and carefully, opens up the prospect: will the chemical weapons argument now be used to escalate that support, possibly moving it into the open?

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Syria Live: A Fight Against Hezbollah

2045 GMT: Fighting In Al Qusayr. This video reportedly shows rebels firing a Zu-23-2 anti-aircraft gun at Assad fighters near Al Qusayr today:

The feeling in Homs is grim. Contacts we've spoken to reiterate that they have resisted simplifying this conflict along sectarian lines, but that the regime has forced their hand by utilizing sectarian militias, including Hezbollah, to not only attack rebels but also to attack Sunni civilians. Other people who have told us they have contacts in Homs are saying similar things.

By morning, we may see the violence in central Syria explode in the most clearly sectarian fashion since the start of the conflict.

On the other hand, most opposition members have resisted sectarianism so far. Alawite, Druze, and Christian groups fight inside and alongside elements of the Free Syrian Army. While we've never been this pessimistic about sectarian violence in Syria, we're not without hope that the fighting will be limited to the groups that are already involved.

2000 GMT: Regime Kills its Own? This promises to be the most controversial video of the day:

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Iran Live: Another Move on Syria

Presidents Ahmadinejad & Assad1540 GMT: Nuclear Watch

Iranian media report that Iran and the United Nations nuclear watchdog will have further talks over Tehran's disputed nuclear program around May 21 in Vienna, Iranian media reported on Monday.

There was no immediate confirmation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), leaving unclear whether a firm date for the next meeting had already been agreed.

Iran's Mehr and ISNA news agencies initially reported that the meeting would be held on May 21, but ISNA later quoted an unnamed official as saying this was only a "preliminary agreement" and that the date could be moved by one or two days.

1230 GMT: Sanctions Watch

British Foreign Secretary William Hague has indicated that the European Union will not be imposing new sanctions on Tehran.

Speaking before an EU Foreign Ministers' meeting in Luxembourg, Hague said, "We must maintain (current) sanctions pressure, not proposing new ones."

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Syria Live: International Support for the Insurgency?

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and US Secretary of State John Kerry at Saturday's Friends of Syria meeting

See also Bahrain (and Beyond) Live: The Protests, the Opposition, and the Grand Prix
Saturday's Syria Live: "Terrorists Eliminated by Army Operations"

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1935 GMT: Opposition Criticises Lack of International Action

Moaz al-Khatib, the leader of the Syrian National Opposition Coalition, has confirmed the resignation he announced last month.

A Coalition official said, "Khatib is resigning to denounce the international community's lack of real action on behalf of the Syrian people," after the opposition requested "specific, precise and immediate action to protect Syrian civilians from the use of ballistic missiles and chemical weapons".

Khatib had met US Secretary of State John Kerry before Saturday's Friends of Syria meeting. Kerry announced a doubling of "non-lethal" aid to $120 million from Washington, but it was not enough to satisfy the Coalition.

"The result in Istanbul was less than the Syrian people expected," Hisham Marwa, a senior member of the Coalition, said. "The US said that the use of chemical weapons was a red line for the Assad regime but the regime is using them and nothing has happened. We expected more. Russia sends Assad tonnes of weapons every week."

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Syria Live: "Terrorists Eliminated by Army Operations"

One of State news agency SANA's standard photographs of soldiers "eliminating terrorists"

See also EA Video Analysis: Introducing "The Love Triangle of Profileration" --- Iran, Syria, North Korea
Iraq (and Beyond) Live: Provincial Elections Amid Spike in Violence
Friday's Syria Live: UN Security Council Condemns Violence by Both Sides

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1805 GMT: Aid to Insurgents

US officials have said that Secretary of State John Kerry offered a package of up to $130 million in aid to insurgents at today's Friends of Syria meeting (see 1045 GMT).

The officials said the aid could include body armor, armored vehicles, night vision goggles, and advanced communications equipment.

Earlier this year at a Friends of Syria gathering, in the first US commitment of non-lethal aid, Kerry offered $60 million.

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EA Video Analysis: Introducing "The Love Triangle of Profileration" --- Iran, Syria, North Korea

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Ten years ago, it was the Axis of Evil --- Iraq, Iran, and North Korea.

Today, it is the "Nexus of Proliferation", with Iran and North Korea still featured and Syria replacing the fallen Saddam Hussein.

This 8-minute analysis explains how members of Congress and an "expert" --- step up, Dr David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security, the man who has declared dangers of the Iranian nuclear programme such as "Magnets of Doom" and "Pink Tarpaulins" --- has given us this new label for the Threat to America.

Syria Live: UN Security Council Condemns Violence by Both Sides

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1315 GMT: Protest Watch

Protesters in Kafranbel in Idlib Province have expressed condolences to the victims of Monday's bombings of the Boston Marathon:

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Syria Audio Feature: Foreign Intervention and the "Second Front" in Jordan --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Last night I spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily about the developing "second front" in Jordan, with the US and other countries putting in more forces --- overt and covert --- to support the insurgency in Syria and to protect Amman from "extremists".

Listen to interview from the 7:53 mark on The Daily homepage or in a pop-out window

I also discussed the significance of the temporary cease-fire in Aleppo to collect bodies (a compassionate gesture, but no more) and of President Assad's latest general amnesty (not much).

Syria Live: Assad "No to Surrender, No to Submission"

1523 GMT: Sectarian Threats on the Front Lines of Homs. Some of the rebels who captured the Al Dabbaa airport in Homs (see update 1320) appear to have chanted sectarian slogans. According to The Guardian, a translation of a video from Syrian rebels indicates a strong sectarianism in the language of some of the victorious rebel groups.

Mona Mahmood translates a speech given by a bearded leader in the clip. He says:

"Let the Arab leaders knee under the feet of the mujahideen and heroes of Quasir. We are fighting the most vicious enemy in the world the Shia and the Nusairi. The Shia and Nusairi are gathered against us to destroy Quasir."

It came as the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Right uploaded a video claiming to show three soldiers from the ruling Alawite sect being tortured by rebels in Homs province [Warning: disturbing content].

The clip shows three naked men with plastic blindfolds in oil drums being repeatedly kicked, slapped and spat at by rebels.

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Syria Analysis: US Arms to Insurgents, "Al Qa'eda", and Muddled Reporting

The Obama Administration has come to the point where it either has to withdraw from the effort to provide weapons --- in which, it faces the prospect of insurgents, some of whom it does not like, getting the arms elsewhere and thus being beyond US "influence" --- or it accepts that the weapons will not always remain in the hands of "moderate" factions.

The US official says --- although the Journal does not realise this --- that the Obama Administration has chosen the latter scenario.

It is this, not the inaccurate hook-line of "Islamists tied to Al Qa'eda", which is the real story of US intervention in the Syrian conflict.

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